Monday, November 25, 2013

Selected writings on Middle East and related security issues (Ignore date tag)

I have stopped updating this page. The areas below are a frequent area for my writings so the best way to find the latest is to google "Tom Rogan [whatever area/topic you might want to read]" THANKS!

I'm now updating this page less regularly (please visit my Washington Examiner page for more recent posts).

Writings on other issues related to security/intelligence/counter-terrorism/AQ Core etc. are listed under OTHER header towards the end of this page. Please also see my TV/Radio page for related interviews/speeches.

Relevant academic background - I hold a BA in War Studies from King's College London and a Master's degree in Middle East Politics from The School of Oriental and African Studies, London.

My work has been recognized by the BBC + BBC, + BBC, + BBC, +BBC, the UK Parliament, the American Enterprise Institute, the  Council on Foreign Relations, CNN’s Fareed Zakaria, the Foreign Policy Initiative, The Week magazine reviews, The Wire + The Wire + The Wire + The Wire, the Center on National Security at Fordham Law School, and Real World Politics/Real Clear Politics. My examination of US security challenges at the end of 2013 was reviewed as the global ‘‘must read’’ of the day by the BBC.

Thank you very much for reading.

IRAQ (most Daesh/IS/ISIS/ISIL pieces under this header)

The Conundrum of Arming the Kurds (National Review)

How to Defeat Daesh - 2017 version (National Review)

Why the Slow Speed of Operations in Mosul is Harming U.S. Interests (National Review)

Why the U.S. Role in Mosul is Crucial (National Review)

Is Daesh Near Defeat? (National Review)

Daesh Total War Strategy (National Review)

The Baghdad Bombings and 3 Observations on Evolving Daesh Strategy (National Review)

Why Obama's Iraq Policy is Collapsing in 2016 (National Review)

How the ISIS List Will Help Allied Intelligence (National Review)

The Crucial Politics of the Battle for Mosul (National Review)

ISIS Chemical Weapons Strategy (National Review)

4 Takeaways from ISIS Video Threatening UK (Homepage)

3 Takeaways from the Battle for Ramadi (National Review)

Predicting the Paris Attacks

The Coming Showdown Between Iran and the US in Iraq (National Review)

ISIS Banner of Death vs US Military Banners of Moral Glory (Opportunity Lives)

ISIS Frays the Civic Fabric of Europe (National Review)

Obama's Fecklessness Pushes Europe Towards Putin (National Review)

The importance of killing Jihadi John (National Review)

The State of the Islamic State (National Review)

Debate on September 11th show (McLaughlin Group)

America and Russia can be Deterred in Iraq (National Review)

Obama's Lost Humanitarianism (National Review)

LONG FORM ESSAY - A New Blueprint for Defeating the Islamic State (National Review)

President Obama's Ludicrous Middle East Policy (National Review)

The Challenge of the Middle East (TV- McLaughlin Group - many more TV comments here)

A Success Against the Islamic State. In Perspective (National Review)

What to Expect from Iraq's Efforts to Retake Ramadi (National Review)

The Fall of Ramadi would be a Devastating Win for ISIS (National Review)

Iran supporting anti-US efforts in Iraq (National Review)

SPEECH: America's Role in the Middle East (Leadership Program of the Rockies)

Jobs for ISIS: Not so stupid as you think (National Review)

Obama's Decision on ISIS (National Review)

Another ISIS Atrocity (National Review)

ISIS caught a Jordanian pilot (National Review)

No cause for optimism on ISIS (National Review)

Yes to a Safe Harbor (National Review)

What Kassig's beheading tells us (National Review)

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi's global jihad (National Review)

Diversity of threat (Fox News)

Boots to Anbar, Now (National Review)

The Storm of Karbala (National Review)

The Islamic State's Stoning Video (National Review)

Saudi Arabia vs Iran (National Review)

US Intelligence and the Islamic State (National Review)

The Islamic State's strategy in Baghdad (National Review)

The Islamic State's evolving strategy (Fox News)

Kobani, the Islamic State and America's disinterest crisis (Daily Telegraph)

Obama's failing strategy and Kobani (National Review)

Three reasons we must find Jihadi John (National Review)

Inciting Murder (Weekly Standard)

Three reasons Obama is happy to have UK support against IS (Daily Telegraph)

The Khorasan Threat (National Review)

Why the UK will join the anti-ISIS coalition (National Review)

ISIS comes to the west (National Review)

Obama was right on ransoms (National Review)

Obama's ISIS speech: a review (National Review)

The speech Obama should give on ISIS (Daily Telegraph)

The Complexity of Coalitions (National Review)

Steven Sotloff and ISIS's fear (The Daily Telegraph)

ISIS- strengths and weaknesses (Fox News)

Obama, check your answering machine (National Review)

Dempsey's clarity, Obama's confusion (National Review)

The White House Leaked Too Much Information (The National Review)

James Foley: A man of courage (The National Review)

President Obama's 'Mission Accomplished' Moment (The National Review)

Discussing Iraq (The McLaughlin Group)

After Maliki (The National Review)

Discussing ISIS (Sun News Network)

America alone, again (The National Review)

Talking Iraq (CNN)

Talking Iraq (McLaughlin Group)

Why Obama authorized military action in Iraq (The Telegraph)

The Yezidi and ISIS (The National Review)

ISIS and Death TV (The National Review)

Talking al-Baghdadi (Global Voice Hall)

A Portrait of Death (The National Review)

Three observations on al-Baghdadi's video sermon (The Telegraph)

ISIS: 3 reasons it's dysfunctional (The National Review)

Iraq: More complicated than Sunni vs Shia (The National Review)

British Jihadists in Syria/Iraq (Blog)

Obama is right to return to Iraq (The National Review)

June 2015: What will Iraq look like? (The Daily Telegraph)

Iraq discussion (Real Time with Bill Maher)

A terrorist storm is heading for the west - ISIS focus (The Daily Telegraph)

Voters vs. Bombers (The National Review)

NSA in Iraq (BBC)

Fallujah, al-Qaeda and the legacy of American Sacrifice (The National Review)

Book Review (Washington Free Beacon)


Iran is risking war to test the Saudi crown prince (Washington Examiner)

Why the Slow Speed of Operations in Mosul is Harming U.S. Interests (National Review)

Why - and How - the U.S. Navy Must Send a Message to Iran (National Review)

Obama, Iran, and the Kidnapping of Realism (National Review)

Saudi Execution of Nimr al-Nimr and Regional Strategy (National Review)

Saudi vs Iran (National Review)

The Coming Showdown Between Iran and the US in Iraq (National Review)

Iran Bends the Nuclear Deal - Ballistics Focus (National Review)

How and Why Iran Will Cheat on Nuclear Deal (National Review)

McLaughlin Group debate on Iran (McLaughlin Group) (MORE TV LINKS HERE)

5 Places Iran's Nuclear Cash Will Flow (National Review)

Iran Deal: Good for Iran, But Bad for America and Middle East Peace (National Review)

Iran Deadlines Signal Disaster (National Review)

A Cargo Ship, Yemen, and a Challenge to America (GVH Live)

Like the Iranians, the Saudis think President Obama is weak (National Review)

Putin Returns (National Review)

Iran Deal: A Diplomatic Farce (National Review)

Iran threats to the Middle East (McLaughlin Group)

Put another carrier in the Gulf (National Review)

Iran supporting anti-US efforts in Iraq (National Review)

Obama must be ready to use force against Iran (Daily Telegraph)

Too Many Carrots for Iran (National Review)

Saudi Arabia vs Iran (National Review)

Why is President Obama still buying what Rouhani is selling? (National Review)

Discussing Iran negotiating extension (Sun News Network)

Obama's new red line (The National Review)

Where is Iran heading - three clues (The Daily Telegraph)

Flow chart - what might happen if Israel/US bomb Iran (The Daily Telegraph)

How Obama can help bring the Middle East back from the brink (Fox News)

Iran and Congress - A moment of consequence (Blog)

Iran Deal: Just a piece of paper. For now. (Christian Science Monitor)

Iran Nuclear Program - Discussion and Analysis (TV - Global Voice Hall)

5 Benefits of US-Israel Negotiating Discord - How it makes a good nuclear deal more likely (The National Review)

Flow Chart - Predicting the regional ramifications of a nuclear armed Iran (Blog)

US Navy deployments... Iran? (Blog)

How Obama can achieve a good nuclear deal with Iran (The Guardian)

How to manage a nuclear theocracy (Blog)

2 Presidents and 3 diplomatic delusions regarding Iran (Blog)

4 Takeaways from the Filkins study of Qassem Suleimani (Blog)

Iran, the US and the UN - A skeptical take (Blog) 

Iran plans retaliation if US strikes Assad (Blog)

President Rouhani and the continuing risk of conflict (Blog)

The geo-strategic impact of Iran attaining a nuclear weapons capability (The Commentator)

How domestic politics influences Iranian, US and Israeli foreign policy (Blog)

How Iran will use brinkmanship to protect its nuclear program (The Guardian)

Israel could attack Iran without causing a major war in the region (The Guardian)

Iran and Diplomacy (Blog)

Strategic interplay in the Near/Middle East (The Daily Caller)

Netanyahu at the UN (Blog)

Netanyahu's strategy on Iran (The Daily Caller)

Iran plots against US and How US should have responded (Blog)

SYRIA/LEBANESE HIZBALLAH/LEBANON/ (same header due to overlap in the pieces. Many ISIS pieces under IRAQ header)

3 Options for Trump vs. Assad (National Review)

5 Ways Trump Should Leverage U.S. Ground Forces in Syria (National Review)

Discussing Syria (Fox News)

5 Things to Expect After Aleppo Falls (National Review)

Why Putin is Finishing Aleppo Now (National Review)

What to Expect from the Operation to Retake Raqqah (National Review)

In Lebanon, U.S. Allies are in Trouble (National Review)

3 Ways the U.S. Can Save Syria (National Review)

Putin Buries U.S. Credibility in Aleppo (National Review)

Why Putin Bombed the Aid Convoy (National Review)

Putin's Cease-Fire: A Trojan Horse (National Review)

Why Turkey is Kneeling to Russia (National Review)

Putin's Gun, Obama's Pen (National Review)

4 Reasons for Retaking Raqqa (National Review)

Putin's Slaughter Strategy (National Review)

ISIS Syria Strategy (National Review)

Obama, Geneva, Syria (Homepage)

Starving Syria (National Review)

Turkey Downs a Russian Jet - What Happens Next (National Review)

The M-5 Highway and Google Maps (Homepage)

How to Respond to Russia's Offensive in Syria (National Review)

The Problem Posed by Russia's Offensive in Syria (Fox News - More TV Links here)

President Obama's Cluster of Mistakes in Syria (National Review)

President Obama's 'Goldfinger' Strategy (National Review)

America and Russia can be Deterred in Syria (National Review)

America Must Influence Russia and Iran (National Review)

How Russia is playing the United States in the Middle East (Steamboat Institute)

Why America Must Not Deal With Assad (McLaughlin Group)

The Fall of Palmyra is a Strategic and Human Tragedy (National Review)

How Syria's Dictator Slaughters His People (National Review)

Why Pelosi's Visit Was Inexcusable (National Review)

Hezbollah Hits Israel (National Review)

Problems facing Lebanese Hizballah (Reuters)

The Khorasan Threat (National Review)

Why the UK will join the anti-ISIS coalition (National Review)

A terrorist storm is heading for the west - ISIS focus (The Daily Telegraph)

Three reasons Obama might still bomb Syria (The Daily Telegraph)

Syria is suffocating (The National Review)

Obama's Slumber - Putin's Swindle (The American Spectator)

Why the US must not ally with Iran in order to defeat ISIS (The National Review)

Why Syria is forcing British Intelligence into hard choices (The American Spectator)

Assad's WMD deal: the nature of a tyrant (Blog)

Geneva II and the need for a new American strategy (Blog)

Assassination in Beirut (Blog)

Putin's deal is a catastrophe for Syria and the US (The Guardian)

A key difference between Bush and Obama (Blog)

Thoughts on Geneva (Radio 660 AM The Answer) 

Putin's letter - Analysis (Blog)

The American Retreat (Blog)

Syria WMD deal? The ultimate political Ponzi scheme (Blog)

The American Choice in International Affairs (The National Review)

Syria - a pivotal week for America (Blog)

How the Bin Laden raid can guide US intervention in Syria (Blog)

My response to 5 non-interventionist arguments (Blog)

Syria - 4 myths infecting the intervention debate (Blog)

Talking Syria/Congress (TV - Al Jazeera America)

Syria - US policy challenges (Radio - 660 AM The Answer)

Obama goes to Congress on Syria: Big mistake (The Week)

Kerry press conference (Blog)

Why the British Government vetoed intervention in Syria (Blog)

Syria and US Foreign Policy - Values and Outcomes (Blog)

Syria Update... (Blog)

Why the US should intervene against Assad (Monocle 24 Radio)

Obama fails to lead on Syria (The Guardian)

5 proposals for American intervention in Syria (Blog)

Actors in the Syrian Civil War - Flow Chart (Blog)

The suffering of Syria, the shame of America (Blog)

It's time to arm the Syrian rebels (The Week) 

On the EU's Hizballah delusion (Blog)

How the US should deal with Assad's chemical weapons threat (Huffington Post)

Why Hizballah will desert Assad before the end (The Guardian) (I still support the essence of my argument here, but in hindsight, it's also clear that I placed too much emphasis on Hizballah's concerns over domestic/regional political perception.)


The death of al-Wuhayshi (National Review)

The Collapse of President Obama's Yemen Strategy (National Review)

Obama's Yemen Strategy (National Review)

Taking Al Qa'ida's Media Savvy Seriously - al-Wuhayshi video (National Review)

7 Thoughts on the August 2013 AQAP threat (Blog)

BBC World Service discussion on August 2013 AQAP threat (BBC)

AQAP Intelligence Leaks (Blog)

On the Foiled 2012 AQAP plot (Blog)


Egypt and the Costs of Lost American Influence (National Review)

Five observations about Egypt chaos (Fox News)

Egypt and the failure of US policy (Blog)

Why the Egyptian Army Issued Morsi a Deadline (Blog)

Why Egypt Needs Democracy (Blog)


Why Supporting Israel Need Not Mean Supporting Israeli Espionage Against the U.S. (National Review)

Israel 4 Challenges (National Review)

Obama vs. Netanyahu (National Review)

The Inexcusable Release of Jonathan Pollard (National Review)

Israel's Rosa Parks Moment (National Review)

Netanyahu Courts Congress (National Review)

Hezbollah Hits Israel (National Review)

Jerusalem's Latest Terror (The National Review)

Gaza and the West (The National Review)

While the World Tweeted (The National Review)

Israel's Strategy is working (The National Review)

US-Israeli relations: a complicated story (The Daily Telegraph)

Hamas's Strategy (The National Review)

Netanyahu's Strategy (The Daily Telegraph)

Discussing Israel-Gaza (Sun News Network)

Discussing Israel-Gaza (Newsmax TV)

It's not just about Hamas, it's also about Iran (National Review)

Why Israeli retaliation is likely (National Review)

5 Benefits of US-Israel Negotiating Discord (National Review)

The Absurdity of the ASA Boycott of Israel (Blog)

Peace, Patriotism and Pollard (National Review)

Why the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks are worthwhile (Blog)

American conservatives should support the peace process (Blog)

Why America is right to support Israel (Blog)


Massacre in Kenya (National Review)

Tripoli/Baraawe - Special Forces Methodology (Blog)

Capture of Anas al-Liby/Strike Against al-Shabab (Blog) 

The Evil of Global Jihad (National Review)

How the US must respond to the Westgate Mall attack (Blog)


ISIS Strategy in Libya (National Review)

The Speech David Cameron Should Give on the Sousse Attack (Webpage)

Terror Attack in Sousse, Tunisia (National Review)

Terror in Tunisia (National Review)

Jihadists in the swimming pool (National Review)

Benghazi and the DC blame game (The Guardian)

Ann Kuster (Blog)

Capture of Anas al-Liby/Strike against al-Shabaab (Blog)

Obama's subversion of war powers (The Guardian)

Assessing allegations of a CIA cover-up in Benghazi (Blog) 

Benghazi and why truth makes a difference (Blog)

OTHER - (Somewhat relevant here: In 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2012, I was the Deputy-Lead Player Escort (#2 rank), G4S – Wimbledon Tennis Championships. This role involved ensuring player/VIP security during the tournament and liaising with the UK's Metropolitan Police Service and other parties.

A spy story and why politicians should respect agent running (Washington Examiner)

An inside look into where and how the U.K. spies (Washington Examiner)

Why Trump is Wrong to Say ''Radical Islamic Terrorism'' (The Daily Beast)

Why and How Trump Must Get Tough on Erdogan (National Review)

Pres. Obama's Saudi Delusions (National Review)

Daesh Total War Strategy (National Review)

Erdogan's Victory and How America Must Check Him (National Review)

Bush's Iraq Surge vs. Obama's Afghanistan Waltz (National Review)

Orlando and the Losers Who Become Terrorists (National Review)

4 Ways Free Markets Weaken Islamic Extremists (Opportunity Lives)

5 Takeaways on the Dusseldorf ISIS Plot (National Review)

Why and How America Must Restore Influence with Saudi Arabia (National Review)

Brussels Attacks (National Review)

3 New Foreign Policy Crises in 2016 (National Review)

UK Terrorism Threat in Light of Tube Stabbing (National Review)

The Paris attacks should end the debate over IS threat to the west (National Review)

My warnings about Paris style attacks - collected links - (Homepage)

Why Guantanamo Bay should remain open (Washington Post)

President Obama's New Afghanistan Strategy - 4 Positives, 1 Negative (National Review)

Saudi Arabia's Strategic Landmine (National Review)

President Obama's Diplomatic Fairyland (National Review)

Europe, Migrants, and the Rot of Western Liberalism (Opportunity Lives)

Exploiting the Taliban's Vulnerabilities (National Review)

Obama's Lost Humanitarianism (National Review)

Why Steering Clear Of The Middle East Is A Terrible Idea (Reuters)

Obama Changes US Hostage Negotiation Policy. Not For The Better. (National Review)

Respect is not the same as leadership (GVH Live)

Don't Blame Drones for Casualties in Pakistan (National Review)

Lessons from the latest Paris plot (National Review)

President Obama's Sunni Arab Problem (National Review)

Why ISIS will attack America (National Review)

The Islamic State's New Outpost (National Review)

The Belgium Jihadist raids (National Review)

Jihadist slaughter in France (National Review)

Pakistan's 9/11 (National Review)

Terror in Sydney (National Review)

Foreign Friends and Feinstein (National Review)

Senate Democrats Purge the Record (National Review)

Obama's signs of courage on Afghanistan (National Review)

Behind the apparent plot against the Queen (National Review)

The Traitors who Join ISIS (National Review)

Inspired/Homegrown terrorism links (Blog)

Reza Aslan and the question of Islamic extremism (Blog)

America to the rescue, again (The National Review)

Democrats and the CIA (The Daily Telegraph)

While the World Tweeted (The National Review)

Obama absence of strategic bridge (The National Review)

Review of 'The French Intifada' (The Washington Free Beacon)

American spies and diplomacy of Intelligence gathering (The Daily Telegraph)

The need for multilateralist humility (The Daily Telegraph)

DHS risky airport alerts (The National Review)

Nancy Pelosi and Middle East policy (The National Review)

What to do about Boko Haram (Slate)

#HellfireBokoHaram (The National Review)

Boko Haram (The Daily Telegraph)

Obama's Credibility Crisis (The National Review)

Pollard (The National Review)

Alice in Arabia and the foul idiocy of censorship (The National Review)

Feinstein and the CIA (The National Review)

The Trouble with Turkey (The National Review)

MH370 and the silent question of Islam (The National Review)

The Greenwald Supremacy (The National Review)

A politician, a tweet and a question of freedom (The National Review)

A tough week for freedom... (Blog)

Why Syria is forcing British Intelligence into hard choices (The American Spectator)

Three problems with the President's NSA reforms (Blog)

The Political Face of Sectarian Hatred in the Middle East (Blog)

How Obama can help bring the Middle East back from the brink (Fox News)

For 2014, Globe In Partes Tres (The National Review)

Repression in the UAE (Blog)

China, Iran and Santa (National Review)

NSA Cell Phone Monitoring (Blog)

Hizballah, Iraq and Ukraine (Blog)

Afghanistan, Iraq and Liberal Morality (Blog)

Indulging Al Qa'ida - How Europe is serving the interests of terrorists (The National Review)

Why Islamic extremists don't appreciate satire (Blog)

Notes on Sayyid Qutb (Blog) 

British Jihadists in Syria (Blog)

The Evil of Global Jihad (The National Review)

Debate - Is America right to spy on Europe? (BBC)

Why America should spy on Europe (The National Review)

US Intelligence Operations in Europe (Al Jazeera America)

Merkel and the NSA - Analysis (Blog)

A delicate dance - France and the NSA (Blog)

In Defense of Drones (The National Review)

UK Intelligence Chiefs - Analysis of Testimony (Blog)

London Counter-Terrorism arrests, Snowden and UK Intelligence (Blog)

Oct 2013 London Counter-Terrorism arrests (Blog) 

Zawahiri and AQ Core's evolving strategy (Blog)

Brazil, the NSA and a Snowdened state visit (Blog)

The protection of President Obama's family shouldn't be political football (The Guardian)

Thoughts on Drones (Blog)

Obama must not undo success of surge in Afghanistan (The Guardian)

The role of religion, the definition of terrorism - beware the original thinkers (Blog)

Why the Tsarnaevs turned to terrorism (Blog)

Why Guantanamo Bay should remain open (The Daily Caller)

BBC World Service debate on Guantanamo Bay (Radio) (BBC)

BBC World News debate on Guantanamo Bay (TV) (BBC)

Why Muslims must confront Islamic extremism (Blog)

In Defense of Lawful Secrecy (The Week)

Analysis of Washington Post Intelligence Community reporting (Blog)

The Challenge of Hostage Rescue Operations (Blog)

The War on Terror isn't over. Here's how the US can win it (The Week)

Republicans must speak out against attacks on our Muslim fellow citizens (The Daily Caller)

Conservatives and Counter-Terrorism (The Week)
(All pretty serious topics, so here's some pleasant music...) 

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