Thursday, November 30, 2023

Israel war strategy, UAE

The U.S. clearly wants Israel to expand ground force operations at the expense of air strikes. Amid high civilian casualties in Gaza, Blinken is pushing for a change in war strategy.

The UAE shows its duplicity with China kowtowing and COP28 oil deals. The nominal U.S. ally is turning out not to be such a great ally.



Wednesday, November 29, 2023

Two state solution, Iran militias

A two-state solution remains the U.S. interest when it comes to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. That possibility isn't possible today, but it is worth holding to.

Iran's hand shown by suspended attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria. Iran's command and control over militias, whether toward force or silence is striking.



Tuesday, November 28, 2023

Sunak on Greece/Argentina vs. China, UK Navy posture

Rishi Sunak's government waves silly sticks at Greece and Argentina, and carrots at China. Facing an election and down in the polls, Sunak is using foreign policy to bolster his populist standing.

From last week...

U.K. admiral helps U.S. with naval posture. The head of the Royal Navy is holding his forces in contingency role rather than deploying them for deployment's sake. This approach would be valuable in a war with China or Russia.



Monday, November 20, 2023

Al Shifa hospital

Israel's justified action at Al-Shifa hospital. It is absurd to suggest that Hamas can operate safe havens in a combat support role.



Thursday, November 16, 2023

Bin Laden's letter, GOP vs. First Amendment, MTG vs. FBI

Consider Osama bin Laden's full letter to America, not TikTok videos. The nature of bin Laden and al Qaeda ideology goes far beyond the simplistic notion of 'anti-colonialism' etc.

From Wednesday...

GOP presidential hopefuls sour on the First Amendment. All of the top candidates have shown concerning disregard for key First Amendment facts.

Marjorie Taylor Green condemns FBI director for upholding the First Amendment. The Congresswoman wants the FBI to investigate her political opponents simply for holding controversial views.



Tuesday, November 14, 2023

Biden-Xi meeting, Israel's post-war Gaza plans

Four key things Biden should say to Xi. Technology transfers, military accidents, treaty allies and issue centric engagement.

Israel's very poor options for governing post-war Gaza. The opportunity for a government that finds legitimacy from Palestinians and supports Israeli security is not obvious.



Monday, November 13, 2023

David Cameron, Hezbollah and U.S. vs. Israeli calculations

Why pro-China David Cameron is the new U.K. foreign secretary. The former prime minister's appointment is likely down to three Rishi Sunak priorities: domestic politics China engagement and experience.

How U.S. and Israel interests divide against Hezbollah. Israel has an interest in maximal deterrence, the U.S. has an interest avoiding being dragged into war.



Friday, November 10, 2023

Israel-Hamas war

U.S. should support these humanitarian efforts, not a ceasefire. Israel must degrade Hamas and restore deterrent credibility in the region. But so also must additional efforts be made to protect civilians.



Thursday, November 9, 2023

Free speech

Free speech must not be a victim of Israel-Hamas war. The First Amendment makes clear that even hateful speech is protected. It must remain that way.



Tuesday, November 7, 2023

Jordan, Iran terrorism

Why Jordan cannot be ignored. The U.S. ally deserves to be heard.

Biden risks encouraging Iranian terrorist attacks. The weak response to Iranian proxy rocket strikes on U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria risks fueling Tehran's escalation calculus.



Monday, November 6, 2023

Iran deterrence, State Department dissent

Iran is not threatened by US submarine deployment. Although Iran appears not to want a larger war, it is clear that Tehran is not deterred by U.S. military deployments.

State Department employees must remember who is boss. Dissent cables are fine, but public displays of disagreement are unbefitting of the job description.



Thursday, November 2, 2023

IDF ground operation

Israel's ground offensive in Gaza seeks to thread a very thin needle. The IDF faces a major challenge as it attempts to significantly degrade Hamas.



Tuesday, October 31, 2023

Putin-Netanyahu

Putin ruins Netanyahu's years of diplomacy. The Israeli prime minister thought he had established a trust-based pragmatic relationship with Putin. The Russian leader has put an end to that perception.



Friday, October 20, 2023

Israel ground offensive delays

Why Biden is wrong to delay Israel's ground offensive. Playing to Hamas's drip-drip hostage release strategy undermines Israel's security and its credible deterrence against threatening neighbors.



Thursday, October 19, 2023

155mm artillery trade off, Li Shufu/Nikki Haley

A 155mm artillery strike on Biden's defense trade-offs delusion. The release of shells to Israel instead of to Ukraine shows that the U.S. sometimes has to make trade-offs.

Li Shufu shows why Nikki Haley's evolution on China was necessary. As South Carolina governor, Haley welcomed the head of Volvo to set up a plant in her state. But Li is no simple businessman.



Wednesday, October 18, 2023

Biden-Israel, China jet rage

Why Biden's Israel visit was successful. The president secured a humanitarian corridor for Gaza and simultaneously pledged U.S. support/deterrence.

China rages at U.S. for condemning dangerous fighter intercepts. Beijing is deeply uncomfortable with the increasing willingness of regional actors to call out its aggression.



Tuesday, October 17, 2023

Marines-Hezbollah, Orban BRI summit

The Marines have a 40-year-old blood feud with Hezbollah. A bombing 40 years and one week ago explains why.

Viktor Orban bows to Putin and Xi in Beijing. The Hungarian leader never misses an opportunity to remind us that he is no ally of the U.S.



Monday, October 16, 2023

China-Russia vs. Israel, Biden visit to Israel?

China and Russia reinforce diplomatic front against Israel. The two powers are escalating their condemnation of Israel's military response to Hamas's attacks.

Why Biden will likely soon visit Israel. The security and political complications of any visit are outweighed by its prospective value.



Friday, October 13, 2023

Pro-Hamas protests

Shame, do not silence, Hamas supporters for their speech. The Constitution rightly guarantees free speech rights. These rights extend to highly controversial speech.



Wednesday, October 11, 2023

26th MEU

Amid Hezbollah concerns, watch for any movement of 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit. The Marine Corps has a crisis response force deployed in the Persian Gulf.



Tuesday, October 10, 2023

Monday, October 9, 2023

Gerard Ford CSG, Gaza ground offensive

U.S. carrier strike group deployment is focused on Lebanese Hezbollah. The Gerald R. Ford strike group will arrive off the Lebanese coast on Thursday.

New indications of Israel strategy for Gaza ground offensive. The Israeli military is engaged in shaping operations which indicate a looming offensive into the Hamas stronghold.



Saturday, October 7, 2023

Israel-Hamas war

Three key points on Israel-Hamas war. The ramifications of Hamas's attack on Israel are profound in terms of scaled threat, intelligence failure and political consequences.



Friday, October 6, 2023

Trump submarines

Trump's submarine comments would be stupid but do not appear classified. The distinction rests on what China and Russia already know about U.S. submarine forces.



Thursday, October 5, 2023

FIFA corruption, Taiwan

FIFA World Cup move reeks of Gianni Infantino's corruption. The FIFA boss appears to have set the deck to ensure that Saudi Arabia gets to host the 2034 World Cup.

Does Taiwan even care if it continues to exist? President Tsai's defense budgets and Taiwanese tech support for China suggest not.



Tuesday, October 3, 2023

Monday, October 2, 2023

PLA cartoon, China-Philippines conflict? Russia on aid to Ukraine, Smart terrorists, China's executive prisoners, Biden-Xi APEC

PLA releases cartoon on militarized-if-necessary reunification with Taiwan. It's another sign of how important Taiwan's status is to the Chinese Communist Party.

Is China willing to start a conflict with the Philippines? The question has to be asked as Manila moves to assert greater authority in its exclusive economic zone.

Russia's overoptimistic assessment of U.S. tensions over Ukraine aid. Moscow senses a weakening of support in Congress. But it fails to recognize the longer-term picture.

A reminder that innovative terrorists pose a special threat. Most terrorists are stupid, but some are technically smart and pose significant threats.

China's strategy to boost foreign investment: hold executives hostage. Beijing is caught between its security paranoia and its need for increased foreign investment.

Yes, Biden should meet with Xi at APEC summit. Dialogue that might mitigate the risk of miscalculation is valuable in and of itself.




Friday, September 29, 2023

Trump-Milley

U.S. enemies are using Trump's stupid threat to Milley for propaganda. The former president has no ability to distinguish between his own obsessions and the national interest.



Thursday, September 28, 2023

Hong Kong media freedom

China furiously defends its Hong Kong free speech fiction. Beijing is unwilling to admit that its national security law has gutted the city's press freedom.



Wednesday, September 27, 2023

Gershkovich trade?

Could Russian spies in the U.K. be traded for Evan Gershkovich? There are reasons to think it might be possible.



Tuesday, September 26, 2023

China's new world order, Medvedev's Telegram

China unveils its vision for a new world order. The paper reflects Beijing's hypocrisy and desire to woo developing nations away from the U.S.

Once Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev is now relegated to social media tirades. Medvedev's posts tend to threaten variations on a theme of nuclear Armageddon.



Monday, September 25, 2023

Fishing nets, Armenia CSTO, USSS, Canada-India, FDNY 9/11

Fishing net dispute escalates China-Philippines tensions in the South China Sea. Manila rightly removed a net deployed by the Chinese coast guard within Manila's exclusive economic zone.

Russia rebukes Armenia for identifying the CSTO's impotence. Armenia has pointed out that being a member of the organization doesn't appear to do much for one's security.

Secret Service protection tactics encapsulated in an 11 second video. The video shows the tactics the agency applies to protect candidates on the event rope line.

Why Canada must declassify India assassination intelligence. If Trudeau wants his claims to be taken seriously by India, he must hold India to the evidence.

Remembering Orio Palmer and the FDNY 343 who died on 9/11. Their heroism and command decisions that day are a testament to human courage.



Thursday, September 21, 2023

Zelensky allies, GAO report

Why is Volodymyr Zelensky trying to alienate Ukraine's allies? The Ukrainian president has shown a singular arrogance in his recent dealings with foreign allies. It serves his nation very poorly.

GAO's scathing report on F-35 debacle. The fighter jet program continues to fail and GAO makes clear that Lockheed Martin is making things more difficult to resolve.



Wednesday, September 20, 2023

FBI

Fix, don't defund, the FBI. The bureau retains excellent law enforcement capabilities. The problems it faces can be addressed by leadership and structural reform.



Tuesday, September 19, 2023

US-UK intel. flights, Iran assassination threats, UNGA spies, Erdogan

How U.S. and U.K. aircraft are spying on Russia in Ukraine, Belarus and Russia. Near daily flights are monitoring for different types of intelligence from St. Petersburg to the Black Sea.

Iran's president reemphasizes assassination threats in UN speech. Raisi made clear that Iran's blood feud over Qassem Soleimani has not dissipated with Biden's $6 billion gift.

UNGA week is as much spies and security as diplomacy. The annual gathering of diplomats and world leaders poses both opportunities and challenges for the U.S. government.

Erdogan beclowns himself in interview on Turkish press freedom. The Turkish president found himself caught between his ego and his repression.



Monday, September 18, 2023

UK response to China spying, Ukraine grain lawsuit, France-Niger

U.K. aggravates everyone with Chinese espionage response. A spy in parliament has unveiled the Sunak government's tensions over how to deal with Beijing.

Ukraine's idiotic grain lawsuit against Poland and Slovakia. Zelensky needs those nations on side, especially Poland. He makes a serious error of judgment by playing to their populist anger.

France rightly takes a strong stance in Niger. Macron is rightly refusing to yield to the junta's threats to his ambassador.




Friday, September 15, 2023

China disappearances

China shows structural weaknesses with disappearing ministers. Beijing is desperate to avoid negative perceptions of vulnerability, but by hiding the facts as to what has happened to Qin Gang and Li Shangfu it only appears untrustworthy and weak.



Thursday, September 14, 2023

China-Venezuela, Kim Jong Un security

China sends U.S. message with Venezuela strategic partnership. Beijing wants to bolster its challenge to the U.S., both in the Western Hemisphere and globally.

How Kim Jong Un's Russia trip illustrates his paranoia. The North Korean leader's security detail appeared uncomfortable during Kim's visit with Vladimir Putin.



Wednesday, September 13, 2023

Black Sea fleet, House China committee vs. Wall Street

Ukraine's attack on the Black Sea fleet is a big problem for Russia. Moscow has suffered a major military loss in a location where it would least wish to suffer such a loss.

House committee leaders take hard China truths to Wall Street. The top Republican and Democrat on the House China committee are telling Wall Street to divest from the People's Liberation Army.



Tuesday, September 12, 2023

BRP Sierra Madre

The U.S. should help the Philippines replace the BRP Sierra Madre. The beached vessel is helping the Philippines defend its exclusive economic zone from Chinese imperialism. Unfortunately, the vessel is falling apart.



Monday, September 11, 2023

Indo-Pacific diplomacy, Russian war complaints, SVR fictions

Biden deserves credit for Indo-Pacific diplomacy. The U.S. is making progress with improved partnerships across this critical region.

What a soldier's complaints tell us about Russia's war effort. The social media post by a Russian soldier serving in Ukraine lists a litany of problems.

Russia's SVR spy chief reminds us of his service's affection for fiction. Sergey Naryshkin likes to adopt a flexible relationship with reality.



Friday, September 8, 2023

LCS

New ammunition to sink the Littoral Combat Ship. A ProPublica report documents the astonishing failure, both military and political, of the Navy's Littoral Combat Ships.



Thursday, September 7, 2023

Ukraine weapons

The Taiwan tradeoff is key, but Biden is right to send these weapons to Ukraine. The U.S. has strategic interests in ensuring that Ukraine is successful in its war against Russia.



Wednesday, September 6, 2023

Saudi sports splurge, Trump-Taiwan

Why we should welcome the Saudi sports splurge. Saudi Arabia is far from perfect, the killing of Jamal Khashoggi was terrible. Still, we should welcome moves to modernize and diversify Saudi society.

Trump suggests he would not order a military intervention against China over Taiwan. The former president made the comments in a good interview with Hugh Hewitt.



Tuesday, September 5, 2023

North Korea-Russia cooperaton, Xi misses G20, US-UAE tensions, Empower vs. Uber/Lyft

Toothless U.S. threats won't deter North Korea from supporting Russia with arms. Kim Jong Un will perceive the benefits of Russia cooperation as far outweighing any U.S. threats.

Xi shows his agenda with BRICS selection and G20 rejection. The Chinese president's decision to stay away from this week's G20 summit in India shows his interest in establishing an alternate international order.

Is the U.S.-UAE alliance salvageable? The UAE continues to put its Sino-Russian interests before its alliance with the United States.

Does Empower pose a mortal threat to Uber and Lyft? The new ride sharing company offers cheaper ride prices and higher earning rates for drivers.



Friday, September 1, 2023

Air Force-China

Air Force secretary says U.S. not ready for war with China - he's right. The Air Force and the Navy don't have enough of what they need, where they need it to defeat China in war.



Thursday, August 31, 2023

China claims Russian territory, Ben Wallace resigns

China claims Russian territory, Moscow blinks. It's telling that Putin appears willing to excuse China's assertion that it owns territory which belongs to Russia.

Why the U.K. defense secretary's departure is a loss for the special relationship. Ben Wallace was an important leader within the Western security alliance.



Wednesday, August 30, 2023

Ukraine drone raids, London ULEZ

Why Russia is so alarmed by Ukraine's big drone raid. The raid shows that Russian air defenses are failing and thus make Putin appear weak.

Want to drive in London? Pay $16 for the privilege. The British capital is now subject to a ultra-low emissions zone restriction. It means financial hardship for many residents.



Tuesday, August 29, 2023

China map, China coal

Beijing scores a diplomatic own goal with imperialist new map. The map claims ownership over Taiwan, the South China Sea, and areas of India and Russia. Why did China publish it now?

China's continuing coal splurge underlines its disingenuous environmental rhetoric. Beijing claims to care about climate change. Its actions suggest a different reality.



Monday, August 28, 2023

China-US trade, Zelensky corruption law, Denmark free speech

China needs trade improvements far more than the U.S. does. Beijing is pretending that Gina Raimondo's visit reflects Washington's economic desperation. In fact, Beijing is the one that is desperate.

Zelensky's welcome move to equate corruption with treason. Ukraine needs to take greater action to address this concern.

Denmark sacrifices free speech at the mob altar. Copenhagen's decision to ban the public desecration of religious texts is patently at odds with basic free speech principles.