Monday, February 28, 2022

Ukraine nuclear

Why Russia is highly unlikely to launch a nuclear strike against Ukraine. It would risk Putin's hold on power and an escalation spiral with NATO

Friday, February 25, 2022

Charlie Wilson part deux

Ukraine is calling and it wants Charlie Wilson's war back. President Biden should issue a finding to allow the CIA to support an insurgency against Russian occupation forces.

Thursday, February 24, 2022

Sovcombank, Sanctions

Fearing sanctions over Ukraine, Sovcombank hires U.S. lobbyists to whitewash its profile. The bank's true nature is a little different.

Biden and the Western allies wobble on sanctions. While some responses to Putin's aggression have been announced, others remain uncertain.

Wednesday, February 23, 2022


 Russia declares war on Ukraine. What now? The invasion has begun. It is massive in scale and ambition.

China Initiative dies, U.S. reinforces Estonia, China-Russia partnership

Ending the China initiative, the Biden administration sacrifices U.S. security at the woke altar. The Chinese Communist Party is playing the U.S. government against the interests of the people.

Biden starts slow with U.S. sanctions but rightly reinforces Estonia. The NATO member ally is most vulnerable to invasion.

China and Russia align against the world. The two most powerful autocracies seek to dismantle the post-Second World War liberal international order.

Thursday, February 17, 2022

Russia-Kyiv, China demographics, Ukraine NATO?

How and why Russia is massing forces north of Kyiv. The Russians appear to be planning a rapid encirclement of the Ukranian capital.

China's demographic problem. Too few Chinese are having kids and the government has few means to address the issue. This crisis greatly undermines Xi Jinping's global ambitions.

Why Ukraine isn't joining NATO any time soon. The 30 current NATO members are very far from unanimous in support of Ukraine's candidacy and Russia's occupation of Crimea/Donbas looms large.

Wednesday, February 16, 2022

Britain and Russian money, China influence campaigns

 My guest essay for New Lines magazine: 

Britain's Russian money problem. The UK continues to prioritize access to Russian finance at the expense of security and political risks.

The veil comes off China's covert influence campaign. Beijing uses money, sex and ideology to undermine the democratic structures of other nations.

Tuesday, February 15, 2022

Biden's speech, Olaf Scholz in Moscow, Russian de-escalation?, Chinese fishing fleets

Biden delivers a strong speech on NATO, Ukraine, and American values. The president deserves credit for his address on Tuesday.

Olaf Scholz betrays Ukraine and the West. The German Chancellor is now calling for a treaty to limit Ukraine's sovereignty.

Cyberattacks, stock values, and Moldova: or how Russia is not de-escalating. Ukraine continues to face a serious and imminent threat of invasion. Putin simply appears to be centering the initiative back in his favor.

China's fishing fleets are destroying the world's oceans. Acting without regard for other humans or marine wildlife, they are destroying ecosystems and undermining sustainability.

Monday, February 14, 2022

Russia, Germany

No, Russia hasn't blinked, and why a Wednesday invasion of Ukraine is unlikely. Putin is trying to create space for the Russian markets to breathe. He's unlikely to attack according to Western schedules.

Why did the 82nd Airborne avoid German airspace? The latest influx of U.S. troops took longer - and cost more fuel - than needed. We deserve to know why.

Friday, February 11, 2022

Putin invasion indicators, Biden's doctrine

Putin has not yet ordered an invasion, but new indications suggest it is imminent. The movement of Russian forces towards Ukraine's immediate borders is of particular concern.

Biden's apparent 'leave Americans behind' doctrine. What on Earth is the president doing in pledging to Putin that he won't do anything to rescue Americans in Ukraine.

Thursday, February 10, 2022

Ukraine false flag, India-Russia-China

Decoding Ukraine's claim that it just prevented a Russian false flag attack. The plot, as described, seems credible and fits with Russian intelligence strategy.

How long can India tolerate Russia's partnership with China? The world's most populous democracy should weigh more carefully the risks of aligning itself with a partner of its greatest foe.

Wednesday, February 9, 2022

French and German air forces, Minsk III?, Taiwan

 Where are the French and German air forces? Why is it that the U.S. is providing the intelligence and surveillance aircraft with regards to Ukraine?

Time for Minsk III, or why Ukraine wary of a Minsk-ing of words. Kyiv rightly fears external pressure from both Putin and Macron to unilaterally accept the Minsk II protocols.

Why Taiwan faces disaster. The democracy does not have time or readiness on its side.

Tuesday, February 8, 2022

Hong Kong horror show, CCP, inc.

Xi Jinping has broken Hong Kong. The once great city is now a land of Covid lockdowns, Communist corruption, and absent freedom.

CCP, inc. loan shark to the world. China uses debt leverage to extract political fealty and advance its hegemonic agenda.

Monday, February 7, 2022

Ukraine escalation

U.S. ramps up intelligence activity as Russia takes added preparations for war. Surveillance flights are escalating and Belarus is issuing commitments to join any offensive against Ukraine.

Friday, February 4, 2022

China, Russia and the EU's choice

China endorses Russia on Ukraine. Will Europe wake up? The European Union needs to decide what's more important: car exports, or democratic values and its identity.

Thursday, February 3, 2022

Shoigu goes to Minsk

Russian defense minister's suspicious visit to Belarus. Sergei Shoigu's visit will raise Western intelligence concerns that he was delivering marching orders to Russian commanders and possibly also to Belarus.

Wednesday, February 2, 2022

Tucker Carlson/Ukraine, Baltic deployments?

What Tucker Carlson and Bill Maher get right, and wrong, about NATO, Ukraine, and America's role in the world. The U.S. need not always fight for freedom, but freedom matters and its expansion is manifestly in the U.S. national interest.

Avoiding the Baltics, Biden troop deployments evince hesitation, not resolve. Sending Vladimir Putin a message of deterrence means sending it in a manner and way that he must respect. This isn't that.

Tuesday, February 1, 2022

Orban-Moscow, Poland anti-air weapons

Mr. Orban goes to Moscow. The Hungarian prime minister gave Vladimir Putin his support on Tuesday.

As Biden hesitates, Poland joins anti-air Ukraine airlift. Poland will supply man-portable anti-air weapons to Kyiv.