Tuesday, April 23, 2024

UK-Germany and China spies, UK defense boosts, Trump China

U.K. and Germany finally take on Chinese spies but... they are only cracking the tip of China's espionage iceberg. And only with caution.

The U.K. sends message to Trump, NATO and Russia with defense budget boosts. Rishi Sunak has pledged that the U.K. will spend 2%-of-GDP on defense by 2030.

Trump's cabinet picks will reflect China focus. Right or wrong, the war in Ukraine will take a backseat.



Monday, April 22, 2024

Shadow war, Ukraine-EU, Patrushev-Cubans, Trump-TikTok

 The new way of war:  How US enemies foster American anger, disunity, and self-doubt. China is mastering the effort to shape and control what Americans believe and do.

Ukraine and the European Union must adapt their strategies to U.S. aid realities. The most recent U.S. aid package is likely to be the last of its scale.

Russian spymaster meets with Cuban, Brazilian and Bolivian counterparts in Moscow. The meetings underline Russia's interest in bolstering anti-American partnerships.

Trump again bows to Beijing with pro-TikTok rant. The former president appears to care more about campaign donations than national security.



Thursday, April 18, 2024

Ukraine/Taiwan

China will likely invade Taiwan even if Ukraine wins. The Chinese decision to attack or not attack will have little to do with the outcome of the war in Ukraine.



Wednesday, April 17, 2024

Havana Syndrome

CIA doubles down on see-no-Russian Havana Syndrome spin. Director Bill Burns put out an internal memo expressing his continued support for what appears to be flawed analysis.



Friday, April 12, 2024

Rhodes vs. Kushner, FISA 702

Jared Kushner's business dealings deserve scrutiny, but Ben Rhodes has no credibility to offer foreign policy critiques. Rhodes' Middle East record isn't  stellar.

from Thursday

Ghost stories, or why FISA 702 queries should remain warrantless. A warrant-only system for U.S. person queries might work with counterterrorism but would be a disaster with espionage cases.



Tuesday, April 9, 2024

Russia/Hunter Biden, China spies, Johnson-Cameron

Why Russia is attempting to tie Hunter Biden to the ISIS attack in Moscow. It represents a play by the Kremlin to undermine Biden and Ukraine in the 2024 U.S. election.

China complains that the U.S. is denying too many of its spies entry. Beijing pretends those being denied entry are innocent students. They are anything but that.

House Speaker Mike Johnson keeps ignoring top U.S. allies. The Speaker failed to meet with the British foreign secretary on Tuesday.



Monday, April 8, 2024

Mark Rutte

Mark Rutte's selection as next NATO Secretary General carries risks re: Donald Trump's prospective return to office. The Dutch prime minister has a very weak record on defense spending.



Thursday, April 4, 2024

Biden's ceasefire call

Biden's highly damaging call for an immediate Gaza ceasefire. The president has fueled Hamas intransigence, weaken Israeli deterrence, and encourage Iranian aggression.



Tuesday, April 2, 2024

Israel aid strike

Israel's accidental attack on aid workers is a problem for Netanyahu's government. Facing rising international criticism of its military campaign, Israel needs to retain all the support it can get.



Monday, April 1, 2024

Havana Syndrome

New reporting shreds Intelligence Community assessment on Havana Syndrome. The Insider has provided forensic links between Russian GRU operatives and so-called Havana Syndrome incidents.



Friday, March 29, 2024

Poland vs. Spain

Poland rightly calls out NATO freeloading Spain. Madrid has systemically refused to take its NATO obligations or the alliance's defensive remit seriously.



Wednesday, March 27, 2024

IC-DEI issues, Xi's "outstanding leadership"

The intelligence community can balance individual needs with DEI absurdity. Recent releases from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence point to deepening risks for intelligence tradecraft.

China claims U.S. executives salute Xi's "outstanding leadership" in Beijing. A delegation of American business leaders met with Xi on Wednesday.



Tuesday, March 26, 2024

Putin ISIS attack narrative, Hamas has initiative, Poland missile, Nuclear deterrence

Putin makes absurd claim that U.S. both warned of and facilitated ISIS attack. The Russian govt. narrative is pitch perfect KGB-style BS.

The U.S. has encouraged Hamas to avoid a hostage deal. By the UN abstention vote, the U.S. has given Hamas reason to believe time and the political winds are on its side.

Poland must expel the Russian ambassador. Andreev's failure to respect a diplomatic summons request shows Moscow's intolerable contempt for Warsaw.

Thank nuclear submariners, not 'nuclear disarmament consultants' for our avoidance of nuclear war. The key means of avoiding nuclear war is the effective deterrent of those who would otherwise consider starting it.



Thursday, March 21, 2024

Johnson debt

Speaker Mike Johnson's fake fiscal conservatism. Asked about how he wants to address the soaring national debt, Johnson responded with dishonest half-truths and distractions.



Wednesday, March 20, 2024

Trump-NATO, British princess

Trump's positive clarification on NATO. The former president and 2024 GOP presidential nominee says he would "100%" defend NATO allies that meet the 2%-of-GDP spending target.

50 years ago today, another British Princess nearly went missing. Anne's prospective disappearance involved a far more concerning event than Catherine's.



Tuesday, March 19, 2024

WSJ, Goodbye Guam, Havana Syndrome

Guest piece for Wall Street Journal: Putin labels me a terrorist.

Biden's 'goodbye Guam' defense budget. The president has failed to fund critical improvements to Guam's means of defending against Chinese missile attacks.

As the Havana Syndrome scandal rumbles on, Nikolai Patrushev must be laughing. The House Intel. Commitee is rightly scrutinizing the Intelligence Community's assessment.




Thursday, March 14, 2024

Russia nuclear forces, Macron Ukraine

Putin says Russia's nuclear forces are superior to America's. He's wrong. The reality is that the U.S. has a significant overmatch in the undersea and air domains of the nuclear triad.

Macron takes a welcome lead for European security. The French president is pledging to bolster Ukraine's defense against Russia.



Wednesday, March 13, 2024

Latvia, Russia escalation

Speaker Mike Johnson should have made time to meet with Latvia's prime minister. The top Republican in Congress should recognize the value of this reliable ally.

Russia is escalating against the West. NATO must remain resolute in face of Moscow's intimidation efforts.



Monday, March 11, 2024

China/Trump

Trump decides to put China first. Sucking up to Orban and opposing a ban on TikTok, Trump sets himself  in Beijing's corner on two key issues.



Friday, March 8, 2024

AARO

Pentagon UFO agency's report shows analytic bias. AARO fails to consider the historical record and relies on spurious prior assessments in its new report.



Thursday, March 7, 2024

Gaza port, Wang Yi

Biden's Gaza port plan is signaling to domestic and foreign audiences. There are obvious alternatives but not ones that would allow Biden to send his desired messages.

Wang Yi demands U.S. share high-tech knowledge. The Chinese foreign minister/CFAC director was in particularly ridiculous form on Thursday.



Wednesday, March 6, 2024

Russia arrest warrant, CCP delegates

The Hermitage Museum trip is off. The Russians have issued an arrest warrant for me.

Chinese Communist Party politicians demonstrate Xi's corrosive authoritarianism. The BBC questioned delegates to the National People's Congress. They didn't get  answers.



Tuesday, March 5, 2024

Mossad-Oct. 7, Haiti

Mossad's long response to the Oct. 7 attacks has only just begun. Israel's foreign intelligence service will hunt down those responsible for years to come. And in many countries.

Haiti's fate likely rests on control over Port-au-Prince airport. If the airport falls, Kenyan reinforcements and the country's prime minister cannot land.



Monday, March 4, 2024

Germany-Taurus, GOP leadership

Germany must not dance to Russia's Taurus waltz. The leak of a German air force conversation shows how the Russians aim to manipulate Germany and its allies.

GOP leadership hopefuls forget John McCain and form a 'swamp' alliance with Kari Lake. Those who wish to replace Mitch McConnell appear to care more about their own success than character.



Friday, March 1, 2024

Gaza aid

U.S. military aid drop into Gaza is necessary. The humanitarian situation is increasingly precarious, and U.S. needs to show solidarity with the concerns of its regional allies.



Thursday, February 29, 2024

DSS mismanagement, France-Trump

Diplomatic Security Service management cuts standards and wastes funds on Vegas trips. The State Department's security arm appears to be in trouble.

How France is preparing for a second Trump presidency. Macron is pushing Europe to do more for Ukraine in order, in part, to consolidate against a second Trump administration.



Wednesday, February 28, 2024

Macron Ukraine

Why Macron's troops to Ukraine comment isn't as insane as it sounds. Some Western troops are already there, and Macron was very likely talking about nuclear contingencies etc.



Tuesday, February 27, 2024

Thursday, February 22, 2024

Kirill

Putin prevents Navalny burial as Patriarch Kirill plays Kremlin pet. The supposed moral leader of Russia's Orthodox Church cares little for true faith.



Wednesday, February 21, 2024

Russian assets

Give $100 billion of frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. The Russians have no real means of retaliation and the banking markets would hardly notice.



Tuesday, February 20, 2024

JD Vance-MSC, Wang Yi-MSC, Putin-Navalny body

JD Vance's defense message to Europe is imperfect but can't be ignored. The basic truth is that Europe continues to neglect its provisions for defense and for Ukraine.

China's Wang Yi reminds us that he is an awful diplomat. The Chinese foreign ministry chief brought a mixture of deception and arrogance to the Munich Security Conference.

It's orthodox-style Vladimir Putin to hide Alexei Navalny's body. The Russian president appears to have something to hide. At a minimum, he's betraying the Orthodox Christian values he claims to hold dear.



Friday, February 16, 2024

Putin and Navalny, Trump-Navalny

Putin shows his evil timidity in Navalny's death. Whether by action or neglect, Putin has finally rid himself of his most courageous opponent.

Sorry, Trump is not Navalny. Comparisons between the two men are absurd to the point of being farcical.



Thursday, February 15, 2024

Turner disclosure

Why did Mike Turner disclose Russia's anti-satellite weapon? National security rationales are supplemented by possible campaign donor and FISA reauthorization interests.



Wednesday, February 14, 2024

Russia anti-satellite

U.S. fears Russia preparing to put a nuclear weapon in space. This fits with a longstanding Russian interest in anti-satellite capabilities.



Friday, February 9, 2024

Carlson interview with Putin

Tucker Carlson interview brings new insight into Putin's new and continued thinking. The reality of Putin is that he dislikes America and is determined to seize Ukraine.



Thursday, February 8, 2024

Biden vs. Special Counsel, Biden vs. Kata'ib Hezbollah

Special Counsel Robert Hur offers weak excuses for not prosecuting Biden. The evidence collected and the public interest at stake should have led to a prosecution.

Biden deserves credit for Kata'ib Hezbollah strike. Military action of this kind is necessary to deter Iran.



Wednesday, February 7, 2024

China hangs itself with Roald Dahl, Taylor Swift flight lawsuits, Israel vs. Ukraine aid, US political pyrotechnics

Spying on the Netherlands, China traps itself between Roald Dahl and reality. The disclosure of a Chinese spying campaign is embarrassing and unfortunately timed for Beijing.

Taylor Swift's flight lawsuit threats are unserious and unnecessary. While the celebrity singer has legitimate concerns about stalkers, free speech law is clear

From Monday... 

Why Speaker Mike Johnson is wrong on stand-alone Israel aid. Republicans are right to demand more from Europe in Ukraine's support. Still, Ukraine currently needs aid more than does Israel.

The Biden Administration's political pyrotechnics encourage Iran to escalate. The Administration warned Iranian-aligned forces to evacuate before U.S. strikes and is begging Iran to regard the strikes as unserious.



Monday, February 5, 2024

Charles vs. Austin

King Charles III shows Lloyd Austin how to lead. The difference in how each man responded to his respective cancer diagnosis is striking.



Wednesday, January 31, 2024

China Marcos

China attempts to encircle the Philippines' Marcos at home and at sea. Beijing senses an opportunity to corral the president.



Tuesday, January 30, 2024

Iran

How the U.S. can thread the escalation needle on Iran. The U.S. needs to deter Iran from attacks such as that which occurred on Sunday without precipitating escalation toward war.


Thursday, January 25, 2024

Tuesday, January 23, 2024

Ukraine deep strikes

Ukraine refocuses on defense and deep strikes. The combination allows Kyiv the opportunity to attrit Russian forces and degrade Putin's domestic credibility.



Friday, January 19, 2024

Mattis

If only Jim Mattis ran for president. The former Marine and defense secretary has a character and intellect well beyond that of Biden and Trump.



Thursday, January 18, 2024

North Korea

Kim Jong Un sets up his 2024 wild card threat. The North Korean leader appears determined to contribute, negatively, to the deteriorating international security environment.



Tuesday, January 16, 2024

Tuesday, January 9, 2024

Hezbollah, Lloyd Austih

Israel can go after Hezbollah without U.S. military participation. It is not in America's interest to join a war against Hezbollah.

from Sunday

Lloyd Austin must go. He has failed to show basic leadership over his hospitalization.



Thursday, January 4, 2024

Escalation

As Biden fears escalation, Israel and the Houthis pursue their divergent initiatives. The U.S. is primarily concerned with avoiding escalation, the Israelis and the Houthis are showing greater tolerance for it.