Sunday, November 29, 2020

Iran nuclear escalation, John Kerry and China, Iran assassination retaliation

Iran threatens nuclear escalation over Israel assassination. Tehran wants to leverage the embarrassment it has suffered in extortion of the international community.

John Kerry must confront China's carbon pledge lies. What Xi Jinping says and does on carbon emissions are two very different things.

How will Iran retaliate over Israel's assassination of its top nuclear scientist? The most at risk targets are likely to be Israeli diplomats and scientists in Europe and South America.

Friday, November 27, 2020

Mossad vs. Iran

5 takeaways from Iran's assassination of Iran's top nuclear weapons scientist. There are a range of important takeaways to assess here.

Wednesday, November 25, 2020

China 'elites' strategy, Biden and North Korea, UAE-Saudis and China-Russia

How China aims to use 'elites' to earn Biden's appeasement strategy. Beijing believes that its appeal to influential business interests will help cajole Biden into acquiescent

Biden should offer North Korea a deal with finality, not what Kim wants. The key is to balance exigent U.S. security needs to Kim's survival mentality.

Will Biden see the UAE and Saudis turn to Russia and China? I think so. Any rush-return to the Iran nuclear accord will reinforce Sino-Russian messages that they can best provide for regional security.


Tuesday, November 24, 2020

Navy transit

The many messages in Navy's transit off Russia's coast. The John S. McCain was deployed to uphold maritime law, and retaliate over Russian harassment of U.S. fishing vessels.

Monday, November 23, 2020

Blinken Sec State, Jake Sullivan, Andrew Yang for NSA?

Antony Blinken: the Obama continuity Secretary of State. Blinken is a natural successor to Obama era foreign policies. For good or ill.

Jake Sullivan will be a welcome national security pick in Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran. The top aide to Hillary Clinton's foreign policy apparatus in 2016, Sullivan is smart but also conciliatory

Andrew Yang for NSA Director. The tech entrepreneur could inject some creative thinking in an agency that retains too much of a predictable structure.

Friday, November 20, 2020

Submarine drones, Idlib city, EU military

The Navy's submarine-launched drone revolution. Finally, the Navy is focused on bolstering its submarine warfare potential.

Why Putin and Assad are preparing to attack Idlib city before Biden takes office. They need to preempt sanctions and have fewer reasons to hold back.

EU publishes somewhat honest report on its military readiness. Or absence thereof. The lesson: this bloc is still extraordinarily reliant on the U.S. Military for its protection.

Thursday, November 19, 2020

UK defense, NATO Belarus

Britain doubles down on U.S. alliance with big, multi-year defense spending boost. The new funds will primarily go towards AI, cyber, and the Navy.

NATO should warn Belarus and Russia on any Poland provocation operation. The KGB terrorism list has found two new names.

Wednesday, November 18, 2020

Israel-Iran, Russian satire, Macron's math

Why Israel won't bomb Iran's nuclear program before Trump leaves office. The issue is one of capability and political cover. Both of which require American support.

Russian intelligence dances two waltzes with Soviet-era satire. The SVR and FSB's latest adventures through the looking glass are telling examples of how Putin's security apparatus operates.

The missing $60 billion in Emmanuel Macron's defense budget. The French president either does not understand math or is being deceptive about Europe's military capabilities.

Tuesday, November 17, 2020

Iraq and Afghanistan withdrawals, Franco-German messaging, Putin 2036, last week

Trump's self-destructive Afghanistan and Iraq withdrawals. There is no obvious strategic rationale for this decision. But quite obvious risk.

French and German defense ministers give Biden their wish list. The two officials do not appear to have learned much about U.S. concerns over an unbalanced transatlantic relationship.

Sixteen more years. What's behind Putin's legislative drive to retain power until 2036.

from last week...

Michele Flournoy for defense secretary. Flournoy is a smart thinker with DoD experience.

Biden should immediately sanction these two Putin cronies. They are undermining American interests.

Pompeo should bring a tough message to Tbilisi. The Secretary of State must affirm America's commitment to the democratic rule of law.

Wednesday, November 11, 2020

Hong Kong, Iran nuclear

In Hong Kong, a mirror to Xi's mind. The world is seeing the true nature of the CPC.

Joe Biden faces Iran's nuclear fastball. The incoming president will confront a regime that is rapidly developing its ballistic missile capability and its enriched uranium stockpile.

Tuesday, November 10, 2020

Boris-Biden, Israel Saudis, Pompeo comments

Boris Johnson's Biden call is very telling. The Prime Minister shows that Britain A) believes Biden is near-certain to take office. B) needs to urgently secure Biden's favor.

Why Joe Biden must listen to Israel and Saudi Arabia. The risks, of not doing so, for nuclear proliferation and regional political stability are significant.

Mike Pompeo launches 2024 presidential bid with comments on election. The Secretary of State should not have played to Trump's fraud allegation.

Monday, November 9, 2020

China Biden, Mark Esper, NATO Biden

How China will try to play Joe Biden. The President-Elect faces a regime that will seek to buy political space for its global strategy

Trump's firing of Mark Esper is petulant and pointless. The defense secretary has done a good job.

Biden can't strengthen NATO without publicly challenging Germany. Berlin continues to freeload off the alliance.

Friday, November 6, 2020

China, HK

 Any China-Russia alliance faces three major problems. Namely, mistrust, strategic interests, and India.

In Hong Kong, China asks neighbors to spy on each other. The police tip line is a Gestapo style endeavor.

Thursday, November 5, 2020

Prince Xi, D-Day

Meet Xi Jinping, the dark god-prince of Communist China. Xi's leadership is built on a pack of lies, especially when it comes to his offerings to the world.

US must defeat China's "D-Day" trade attack on Australia. Beijing claims, which is a lie, that it is only acting in accordance with customs rules and public health requirements.


 The header photo from Xinhua -- God Xi.

Wednesday, November 4, 2020

Elections via Russia, Allies, China, Taiwan drones, Germany's naval deployment

Why Russia will relish in - and take advantage from - the U.S. election chaos. Putin will sense an opportunity to fray American democratic credibility and act against U.S. interests abroad.

How American allies are reacting to our election confusion. They want certainty as to who has won, or will be coronated the winner.

China's reaction to the U.S. election. Beijing is nervous that Biden might lose, and will be downhearted that the GOP appears to have secured the Senate.

U.S. sells Taiwan a drone curve ball against China. The $600 million deal will help the island democracy deter and defeat any Chinese invasion.

From Tuesday...

Germany's critical naval deployment to the Indian Ocean. The comments by Germany's defense minister that her nation will deploy a warship alongside the Australian navy, are to be welcomed.

Monday, November 2, 2020

Russia v. Turkey, France freedoms, Hitler's leadership

Why Russia is threatening Turkey and Azerbaijan. Putin’s government is frustrated by Erdogan’s consistent escalation.

France can defend free speech and free worship. The government should reconsider its veil ban as it rightly defends Charlie Hebdo.

Bandy Lee’s silly Hitler tweet. The psychiatrist does not appear to have read very much about the Nazi leader.