Tuesday, May 30, 2023

Moscow-Kyiv attacks, Lula and democracy, Elon Musk in China

Moscow and Kyiv attacks underline Ukraine war's escalation. Neither side has any interest in making near term concessions.

Brazil's Lula is damaging democracy and allying himself with foreign autocrats. He might find Western media favor, but Lula is no friend of the United States or of the democratic rule of law.

Elon Musk brings the wrong message to Beijing. The Tesla CEO is kowtowing to the Chinese Communist Party.

Friday, May 26, 2023

Brian Hook security, China Ukraine peace

State Department security failure: former Trump official's car stolen and used in DC homicide. Two of Brian Hook's vehicles were stolen even as he was under Diplomatic Security Service protection.

China embarrasses France by pushing pro-Moscow Ukraine peace deal. Beijing is again underlining the willful fiction of Macron's narrative that it has serious interest in supporting a meaningful peace.

Thursday, May 25, 2023

Russian nuclear weapons/Belarus, New Chairman of Joint Chiefs, Russian air show malaise

Don't worry about Russian nuclear weapons going to Belarus. There are good reasons to think Putin wouldn't use nuclear weapons.

Biden's strong pick to be the next Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Air Force Chief of Staff, Gen. Charles Brown has a pedigree of China-related experience and strong leadership skills.

From Wednesday...

In a bad sign for Russian arms industry, major air show canceled. Russian manufacturers are short on spare parts and prospective buyers are fleeing.

Tuesday, May 23, 2023

China detente? Papua New Guinea, Marines UFO

Communication is key, but dreams of a U.S.-China detente are fiction. The simple truth is that neither nation has much room for significant compromise.

U.S.-Papua New Guinea deal strengthens China deterrence. The Biden Administration deserves credit for building a wall of partners along the First Island Chain.

Marines, air-ground exercises and the challenge of UFO reporting. The need for prudence rather than 'wanting to believe' reporting is key.

Monday, May 22, 2023

Patrushev-Chen, G7 France

Top Chinese and Russian spy chiefs meet in Moscow. Nikolai Patrushev hosted Chen Wenqing for discussions on further cooperation.

France wins China's silent favor for G7 communique efforts. Macron, as I predicted last week, watered down the communique's China-relevant sections.

Thursday, May 18, 2023

WSJ latest piece

My latest guest piece for the Wall Street Journal. The U.K. and the U.S. are split on Ukraine, here's why the U.K. has a greater risk tolerance.

UK-Japan and China, Taiwan-Ukraine weapons debate, Harry's car chase

Rishi Suank's Japan policy is limited by his China policy. Taiwan is the central consideration for Japan and one it cannot prioritize higher enough.

The top line fact in the Taiwan and Ukraine weapons debate. The discussion over whether to prioritize Ukraine of Taiwan has good arguments on both sides. Still, both sides should admit that the U.S. cannot maximally support both nations at all sides.

from Wednesday

Prince Harry's car crash story doesn't add up. Harry likely has alternate interests in his complaint about the paparazzi.

Tuesday, May 16, 2023

Macron-China, Orban-China

How far will Macron go to keep China happy at G7 summit? The French president is an outlier when it comes to the Japanese interest in greater unity against Chinese threats.

Viktor Orban goes all in for China. The Hungarian prime minister deployed his foreign minister on a new deference tour to China this week.

Monday, May 15, 2023

Christopher Steele, Russia kidnappings, Ukraine counter-offensive

Durham Report shows how Christopher Steele forgot the lessons of Fort Monckton. The former MI6 officer showed tradecraft neglect in reliying on Igor Danchenko.

Why does the Biden Administration incentivize Russia's kidnapping of Americans? The apparent answer is that it prefers to keep Moscow happy rather than challenge its overt hostage taking strategy.

How Ukraine has benefited from delaying its counter-offensive. The Russians are being held off balance by their anticipation of the counter-offensive.

Thursday, May 11, 2023

Storm Shadow, Scholz duplicity, China Ukraine

Three benefits the U.K.'s Storm Shadow missiles bring to Ukraine. The missiles provide long range threat at mitigated risk to Ukrainian pilots.

Olaf Scholz takes one day to prove his duplicity on China. The German Chancellor says he supports "de-risking," but acts in the opposite regard.

China proves its Ukraine peace talks agenda was always a fiction. Beijing is threatening to suspend its largely non-existent peace efforts unless the EU abandons a new sanctions package.

Wednesday, May 10, 2023

Scholz-China, Biden-China, Islamic Jihad

Olaf Scholz tries to play Washington with EU-China speech. The German chancellor remains beholden to the Macron-style appeasement for trade gambit.

Why the China concern stands apart in Biden family business dealings. Hunter Biden opened the door to Chinese intelligence. The president has questions to answer.

For Israel, Islamic Jihad conflagration is just the tip of the iceberg for broader Iran concern. The Israelis want to balance deterrence of Iran with the avoidance of a broader war

Tuesday, May 9, 2023

Xi economic strategy, Canada-AUKUS

Xi's war on economic reality. China's president has a strange strategy for economic growth.

Canada cannot be allowed to join AUKUS. Trudeau's government sorely neglects its existing alliance commitments, it has no right to expect more benefits.

Monday, May 8, 2023

Ukraine counteroffensive, Russia-Ukraine Victory Day

Ukraine's counteroffensive choice between the bold and the very bold. The Ukrainians have clear battlefield opportunities.

For Victory Day, Russia doubles down on effort to portray Ukraine as modern Nazi state. The comparison is absurd but reflects the Kremlin's growing concern over its war effort.

Friday, May 5, 2023

Canada-China, CPAC Orban, Strategic Autonomy, Coronation security

Why hasn't Canada expelled the Chinese ambassador? Beijing's targeting of a parliamentarian's family for intimidation is requiring of swift rebuke.

At CPAC-Hungary, Viktor Orban shows his continuing sympathy for Beijing and Moscow. The prime minister appeals to social conservatives, but he is no U.S. security ally.

China uses Macron's 'strategic autonomy' narrative to warn neighbors against U.S. friendship. The French president has gifted Beijing with his appeasement strategy.

The coronation security operation is a very British mix of the serious and the surreal. Security threats are real, but so are the sillier sideshows surrounding the big day.

Thursday, May 4, 2023

Kremlin attack

Blaming U.S. for Kremlin attack, Kremlin points finger at itself. The notion that the U.S. would direct an attack on the Kremlin is ridiculous.

Wednesday, May 3, 2023

Kremlin drones, Patrushev's Yellowstone volcano theory

Did Ukraine attack the Kremlin or did Russia? Either option is a possibility.

Putin's top hawk says U.S. wants Eastern Europe in case Yellowstone volcano erupts. The national security council secretary underlines the spirit of KGB conspiracy theories.

Tuesday, May 2, 2023

F-35 silliness, Ukraine deep strikes

Pentagon must reject absurd F-35 performance-based contract. Lockheed Martin's push for a new contract arrangement would likely reduce spare part stockpiles and  increase risks during war.

Ukraine escalates sabotage operations ahead of counter-offensive. Strikes at Russian railway lines and oil depots are indications that the counter-offensive is drawing near.

Monday, May 1, 2023

McCarthy-Israel, Marcos in DC

Kevin McCarthy rightly confronts Israel on China tech concerns. The U.S. can no longer afford to have one of its very closest allies helping the Chinese develop means of war.

Philippines-U.S. alliance moves beyond Duterte dysfunction. Marcos recognizes he needs the U.S. to defend his nation's interests from an imperialist China.