Showing posts with label Libya. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Libya. Show all posts

Monday, October 7, 2013

Tripoli/Baraawe - Special Forces methodology

First, please see my post from Saturday (I've updated with new information). 

Reports suggest that the US Army's ACE (aka Delta Force) was involved in the Tripoli operation to seize al-Liby. This news shouldn't surprise anyone. After all, we already know that the FBI/CIA were involved in the capture. In that vein, Delta's involvement would have afforded an extra contingency capability had al-Liby/allies resisted the strike team. As this video illustrates, direct action orientated special forces (like Delta) focus on overpowering their adversaries with speed and overwhelming force. The key to their tactical methodology is to psychologically and physically dominate a target in a manner that denies the opportunity for effective resistance.

That being said...

The SEAL raid against the Baraawe compound illustrates an equally important counterpoint - even Tier One SMUs have their limits. In terms of the Baraawe assault, once the SEALs presence became known, the odds quickly shifted against them. In short, they were outmanned and outgunned in hostile territory. At that point, they were forced to withdraw under fire. 

Taken together, the Tripoli/Baraawe operations speak to two fundamental truths. 

First, that a small group of highly trained individuals can achieve a major strategic effect (whether removing one senior Al Qa'ida leader from the battlefield - or eviscerating an enemy network*). Second, that special forces are neither superhuman nor bullet proof. In the end, the employment of these forces requires a situationally weighted calculation of risk v reward and a policymaker understanding that Von Moltke's law continues to abide- "No plan of operations extends with certainty beyond the first encounter with the enemy.''

*  1) If you prefer a video explanation... click here. 2) I'm very astute to growing insecurity in Iraq.

Please see related links.


Saturday, October 5, 2013

Capture of Anas al-Liby/Navy SEAL strike against al-Shabab

The near-simultaneous capture of Anas al-Liby, a longtime Al Qa'ida planning and logistics officer (and a suspected plotter for the 1998 US Embassy bombings), represents an important counter-terrorism success for the United States. His detention will also allow for some relief at GMP, New Scotland Yard and Thames House - embarrassingly, al-Liby was granted asylum in the UK until 2000 and then escaped the country before a belated raid by UK authorities. One positive - he left behind AQ's operational handbook aka the 'Manchester Manual'. That intelligence coup afforded western intelligence services a crucial insight into AQ's operational methodology. Anyway, these two actions illustrate the US counter-terrorism apparatus at its best - patient, resourceful and decisive.

(Updated 01:20 EST Sunday): Early Saturday, a force of DEVGRU SEALs attacked an al-Shabab compound on the Somali coast. The New York Times reports a US Government source as stating that the attack took place after a period of 7-10 days of planning. This suggests that the US had high confidence intelligence that their intended target would be at the location. Nevertheless, the BBC is reporting that the assault failed to capture or kill the target. We'll have to wait for a few more hours for confirmation on that. Regardless, it does appear that the SEALs encountered heavier than expected resistance and were forced to withdraw.
          Two weeks ago, I suggested that this specific type of military operation would likely form an increasingly important element of the US response to the Westgate atrocity. Though US counter-terrorism operations in Somalia are far from a new development, I'm glad that President Obama appears to have ordered an increasingly aggressive US posture against al-Shabab.

Like the global Salafi-Jihadist movement it supports, al-Shabab must be confronted.

Finally, it's worth remembering that we're lucky to have such skillful special forces units at our disposal. Their capabilities are hard won.

Related thoughts - under 'Other' section.

Sunday, May 5, 2013

Selected writings on Middle East and related/unrelated security issues (Ignore date tag)

This page is regularly updated (please ignore the May 5th date tag).  Most recent writings tend to be at the top of each header section. Writings on other issues related to security/intelligence/counter-terrorism/AQ Core etc. are listed in the OTHER section towards the end of this post.

Relevant academic background - I hold a BA in War Studies from King's College London and a Masters degree in Middle East Politics from The School of Oriental and African Studies, London.

IRAN

Iran Deal: Just a piece of paper. For now
. (Christian Science Monitor)

Iran Nuclear Program - Discussion and Analysis (TV - Global Voice Hall)

5 Benefits of US-Israel Negotiating Discord - How it makes a good nuclear deal more likely (National Review Online)


Flow Chart - Predicting the ramifications of an Israeli military operation against Iran (Blog)

Flow Chart - Predicting the regional ramifications of a nuclear armed Iran (Blog)

US Navy deployments... Iran? (Blog)

How Obama can achieve a good nuclear deal with Iran (The Guardian)

How to manage a nuclear theocracy (Blog)

2 Presidents and 3 diplomatic delusions regarding Iran (Blog)

4 Takeaways from the Filkins study of Qassem Suleimani (Blog)


Iran, the US and the UN - A skeptical take (Blog) 


Iran plans retaliation if US strikes Assad (Blog)


President Rouhani and the continuing risk of conflict (Blog)


The geo-strategic impact of Iran attaining a nuclear weapons capability (The Commentator)


How domestic politics influences Iranian, US and Israeli foreign policy (Blog)


How Iran will use brinkmanship to protect its nuclear program (The Guardian)


Israel could attack Iran without causing a major war in the region (The Guardian)


Iran and Diplomacy (Blog)


Strategic interplay in the Near/Middle East (The Daily Caller)


Netanyahu at the UN (Blog)

Netanyahu's strategy on Iran (The Daily Caller)

Iran plots against US and How US should have responded (Blog)

SYRIA/LEBANESE HIZBALLAH/LEBANON/ (together due to overlap in the pieces)

Putin's deal is a catastrophe for Syria and the US (The Guardian)


A key difference between Bush and Obama (Blog)


Thoughts on Geneva (Radio 660 AM The Answer) 


Putin's letter - Analysis (Blog)


The American Retreat (Blog)


Syria WMD deal? The ultimate political Ponzi scheme (Blog)


The American Choice in International Affairs (National Review Online)


Syria - a pivotal week for America (Blog)


How the Bin Laden raid can guide US intervention in Syria (Blog)


Syria - 4 myths infecting the intervention debate (Blog)


Talking Syria/Congress (TV - Al Jazeera America)


Syria - US policy challenges (Radio - 660 AM The Answer)


Obama goes to Congress on Syria: Big mistake (The Week)


Kerry press conference (Blog)

Why the British Government vetoed intervention in Syria (Blog)

Syria and US Foreign Policy - Values and Outcomes (Blog)


Syria Update... (Blog)

Why the US should intervene against Assad (Monocle 24 Radio)


Obama fails to lead on Syria (The Guardian)


5 proposals for American intervention in Syria (Blog)

Actors in the Syrian Civil War - Flow Chart (Blog)

The suffering of Syria, the shame of America (Blog)

It's time to arm the Syrian rebels (The Week) 

On the EU's Hizballah delusion (Blog)

How the US should deal with Assad's chemical weapons threat (Huffington Post)




Why Hizballah will desert Assad before the end (The Guardian) (I still support the essence of my argument here, but in hindsight, it's also clear that I placed too much emphasis on Hizballah's concerns over domestic/regional political perception.)

IRAQ


AL QA'IDA in the ARABIAN PENINSULA

7 Thoughts on the August 2013 AQAP threat (Blog)


BBC World Service discussion on August 2013 AQAP threat (BBC)


AQAP Intelligence Leaks (Blog)


On the Foiled 2012 AQAP plot (Blog)


EGYPT 


Five observations about Egypt chaos (Fox News)


Egypt and the failure of US policy (Blog)


Why the Egyptian Army Issued Morsi a Deadline (Blog)


Why Egypt Needs Democracy (Blog)

SOMALIA/AL-SHABAB

Tripoli/Baraawe - Special Forces Methodology (Blog)

Capture of Anas al-Liby/Strike Against al-Shabab (Blog) 

The Evil of Global Jihad (National Review Online)

How the US must respond to the Westgate Mall attack (Blog)


ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN CONFLICT


Why the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks are worthwhile (Blog)

American conservatives should support the peace process (Blog)

Why America is right to support Israel (Blog)


LIBYA

Capture of Anas al-Liby/Strike against al-Shabab (Blog)

Obama's subversion of war powers (The Guardian)


Assessing allegations of a CIA cover-up in Benghazi (Blog) 

Benghazi and why truth makes a difference (Blog)


OTHER - (Somewhat relevant here: In 
2008, 2009, 2010 and 2012, I was the Deputy Lead Player Escort (#2 rank), G4S – Wimbledon Tennis ChampionshipsThis role involved ensuring player/VIP security during the tournament and required extensive liaison with the UK's Metropolitan Police Service and other parties.

Why Islamic extremists don't appreciate satire (Blog)

Notes on Sayyid Qutb (Blog) 

British Jihadists in Syria (Blog)

The Evil of Global Jihad (National Review Online)

Debate - Is America right to spy on Europe? (BBC)

Why America should spy on Europe (National Review Online)

US Intelligence Operations in Europe (Al Jazeera America)

Merkel and the NSA - Analysis (Blog)

A delicate dance - France and the NSA (Blog)

In Defense of Drones (National Review Online)

UK Intelligence Chiefs - Analysis of Testimony (Blog)

London Counter-Terrorism arrests, Snowden and UK Intelligence (Blog)

Oct 2013 London Counter-Terrorism arrests (Blog) 

Zawahiri and AQ Core's evolving strategy (Blog)

Brazil, the NSA and a Snowdened state visit (Blog)

The protection of President Obama's family shouldn't be political football (The Guardian)



On the drone debate (Blog)


Why I support the CIA's UCAV (drone) program (Blog)


Obama must not undo success of surge in Afghanistan (The Guardian)


The role of religion, the definition of terrorism - beware the original thinkers (Blog)


Why the Tsarnaevs turned to terrorism (Blog)


Why Guantanamo Bay should remain open (The Daily Caller)


BBC World Service debate on Guantanamo Bay (Radio) (BBC)


BBC World News debate on Guantanamo Bay (TV) (BBC)

Why Muslims must confront Islamic extremism (Blog)


In Defense of Lawful Secrecy (The Week)


Analysis of Washington Post Intelligence Community reporting (Blog)


The Challenge of Hostage Rescue Operations (Blog)


The War on Terror isn't over. Here's how the US can win it (The Week)


Republicans must speak out against attacks on our Muslim fellow citizens (The Daily Caller)


Conservatives and Counter-Terrorism (The Week)
(All pretty serious topics, so here's some pleasant music...) 
 

Saturday, October 13, 2012

Benghazi and the Obama Administration

The Benghazi security scandal has become a major problem for the Obama Administration. Not just in a political sense, but also in terms of honesty. After the attack that killed Ambassador Stevens and three other Americans, the Administration was quick to suggest that the assault had simply been a mob reaction to the 'Innocence of Muslims' youtube video. Incidentally - the fact that the 'Innocence of Muslims' is still on youtube and yet the protests have now halted, provides strong evidence to support the suggestion that the video was not the underlying factor in the protesters motivation.

In reference to Benghazi, the problem with the Obama Administration is clear. In the aftermath of the attack, Administration officials ran to affirm that the attack was not a terrorist attack. Susan Rice, Obama's UN Ambassador, was the most senior official to do so. Even after intelligence sources were pointing to an prior organized attack, Rice persisted in arguing that the intelligence she had seen suggested that a random mob was responsible. There is a serious problem inherent in accepting the full veracity of this proposition.

As former CIA Director, Michael Hayden, explains, faced with a full scale armed attack on a high threat environment US diplomatic facility on 9/11, it is almost inconceivable to believe that the intelligence community would have been comfortable with the easy labeling of the act as video rather than terrorist connected. As Haden notes, the Obama Administration had an obvious political interest in purveying confidence of mob rather than terrorist responsibility. 

As anyone with knowledge of the intelligence process understands, intelligence assessments are predicated on the 'intelligence cycle'. This cycle relies upon a comprehensive process of collection, evaluation, analysis and application. In essence, intelligence officers seek to maximize their range of sources and conduct a varied, intensive analysis of any material available. In this sense, it seems almost certain that in the immediate aftermath of the attack, intelligence briefers would have disclosed to their consumers (senior Administration officials) at least the possibility that the Benghazi attack was far more than a mob action. Indeed, the fact that we now know the attack was terrorist related, provides strong circumstantial evidence that any original intelligence briefings which suggested a possible mob reaction as responsible, would have been graded as 'low confidence' assessments. 

I would submit that it is evident that Obama Administration officials mischaracterized the original intelligence.
        
      Sadly the story doesn't end here. In the Debate earlier this week, Vice President Biden stated that the Administration had not been made aware of cable requests from Libya for greater security. Security requests that were turned down. It is true that the President and Vice-President may not have been aware of these concerns. However, if there was any doubt about authorizing more security, the requests should have been pushed up the chain of authority. Again in the least worst scenario, the Administration was incompetent.

The reason that the Benghazi attack is so important is obvious and profound. Americans serving their country requested more security and didn't get it. And then they were killed. From the first days following the attack, the Obama Administration has reacted with false certainty, confusion and attempts at distraction (Biden changing Benghazi topic to Iraq during VP debate). The questions that need to be answered are clear. What did senior Administration officials (including the President/Vice President) know? When did they know? Was/is there a deliberate attempt to hide the full truth as it became/becomes clear? 

We know that the President has a flexible attention to his intelligence briefings, he didn't attend a single one in the week before the attack. Thus, the simple question remains- has the Administration behaved with incompetence or deception? The American people deserve honest answers.

Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Cario and Benghazi - thoughts

In addition to my US politics focus, I have an MSc in Middle East Politics from SOAS, London. The area is one where I maintain a more analytical interest.
The actions that took place yesterday at the US Embassy in Cairo and the US Consulate in Benghazi, Libya were disgusting. In Cairo, the US flag was ripped down, set on fire and then replaced with a black flag representative to that adopted by Al Qa'ida. In Benghazi, an armed mob attacked the US Consulate and murdered the US Ambassador as well as three other staffers. Why did this happen? Because some individuals are upset about a video. Yes, a video. In this case, the video is one apparently being produced by moronic Florida pastor Terry Jones and a number of Egyptian Copts who live in the United States. Jones is the same guy who threatened to burn Korans a while back. There are a number of comments that I want to make here.

1) There is absolutely no excuse for the violence we saw yesterday. Freedom of speech is an inherent right. If Terry Jones wants to be a moron then he has that right under the 1st amendment. Those who are upset by his film have every right to protest, but must do so in a peaceful way. Anyone who thinks that the appropriate reaction is to resort to violence and murder innocent diplomats is a pathetic human being. Religious leaders across the Islamic world must assert this point. There is a profound example of where this guidance has previously occurred - Ayatollah Sistani. In post-2003 Iraq, Sistani played a major role in persuading Iraqi Shia to engage with the political process and to reject the sectarian war that AQI and Sadr sought.

2) The US State Department public reaction to this incident was not good. Although Hillary Clinton has offered a tougher statement of condemnation this morning, the decision by the US Embassy in Cairo to condemn free speech was a grave error. Instead, the Embassy should have noted the US legal position on free speech while distancing themselves from Jones's idiocy. Relinquishing free speech in face of violent intimidation is always the wrong choice.

3) These incidents indicate the broader tensions that are still cooking in the region. In Egypt, the Copt community has long faced sustained persecution (including violence since President Morsi was elected). It would appear that the Salafist extremists who made up at least part of yesterday's Cairo protest, were to a degree, motivated by their natural hatred for the Copts. In Libya, political fractures remain a key challenge for the provisional government. The key is that regional political dynamics remain fundamentally unstable.

4) The USMC Embassy Security Detachment did a superb job in Cairo. They were calm, professional and allowed the crowd's fury to burn itself out. What happened in Benghazi is less clear.

UPDATE - It appears that two US Marines were killed while attempting to protect diplomatic personnel in Benghazi. The US Military has initiated a Crisis Action Team and is in the process of deploying a FAST unit to reinforce US security capabilities in Libya. 

Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Syria Intervention

The exchanges in the Senate today draw attention the debate surrounding the possibility of open western military intervention in Syria. As I have previously argued, such an operation would be risky and complex AND would draw assets away from other critical national security objectives - such as in Afghanistan. 

The following quote from the above linked article is particularly note worthy:





'But Dempsey [Chairman of Joint Chiefs] said that the attacks necessary to destroy Syrian air defenses would be long, complicated and risky because Syria has air defenses that five times more sophisticated than those attacked by the NATO-led coalition in Libya last year.
“It would take an extended period of time and a great number of aircraft,” Dempsey said. Because most Syrian air defenses are located in the heavily-populated eastern part of the country, where most of the violence against opposition strongholds is taking place, civilian casualties and other collateral damage would be high, he said.'
If Europe wants to engage in foreign military interventions then European states must spend more on their militaries. Especially with regards to building their power projection capabilities. It is intolerable to me that the United States receives European scorn for our military spending most of the time and then.. during situations like that currently ongoing in Syria, receives scorn for being unwilling to risk our pilots, our assets and our money in an operational environment that is far closer to Europe. In Libya, European states took most of the credit and yet, most of the ammunition, logistics and intelligence targeting material was American produce. European responsibilities for international security cannot begin and end with screams for intervention and token deployments of force. These responsibilities and commitments must be real and shared.

Friday, August 26, 2011

Freedom issues..

1) 'I went to a journalist'. As an intelligence officer, you cannot give classified material away without the receiver holding an appropriate clearance level. If in doubt.. do not shout. It is not up to individuals to decipher the legality of complex intelligence programs. Clearly, where evident wrongdoing occurs it should be brought to light.. but Mr. Drake's case is less than convincing in this particular scenario. (I do believe in the journalist right to publish whatever intelligence they have access too... hopefully with caution... just not the right of an intelligence officer etc to leak that information)

2) Rice and Cheney both have their bios coming out in the next few weeks.

3) Interesting how no one gives a shit about Africa... So sad. Most people are satisfied with an annual Bob Geldof concert and throwing a few dollars/pounds at 'Africa' each year. Think of the support that we could bring to bear for Congolese Government if we really wanted to.

4) Another Japanese Prime Minister. The country needs some strong leadership that can win the support of the public and push through a coherent debt reduction plan, alongside recovery from the earthquake.

5) It is appropriate that there be a memorial at the Flight 93 crash site.

6) A slightly comical event in Libya.

7) The UK debate surrounding the censure of social media sites during riots is stupid. Social media exists to propel freedom of speech. Where criminal acts take place online, the police can follow these actors to the source of their crime and can prosecute them with the evidence of their words-following action. Constricting the freedom of a country to make it easier to catch a few criminals is truly absurd. Sometimes I wonder what planet some politicians are on. Though, I suppose I am not alone in that regard.

8) Red Sox crushed Toronto last night. Thanks Gonzalez.

Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Cold Truths

1) Gadaffi's regime is finished. The question now.. what follows? Libya's tribal society and the distinct absence of  institutions necessary for a functioning state are not conducive to a peaceful, democratic transfer of power. Expect blood shed, instability and general chaos.

2) Meanwhile in Syria.. people are still being shot on the streets. I will hopefully have a Guardian piece come out on Hezbollah's role in Syria.

3) To me, Jon Huntsman is the best Republican candidate. Read the transcript of his weekend interview on ABC News here - honesty and tough decisions.

4) The Turkish Military is attacking the Kurdish separatist movement - Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in Northern Iraq. Tensions in another part of the ME..

Friday, June 3, 2011

1) Yemen is on the verge of becoming a failed state. AQAP will be loving the current situation. Yemen's water problems are a major, major issue.

2) The House of Reps is right to be angry with Obama on Libya. He has ignored them, ignored the war powers resolution and ignored the need for the development and implementation of a clear, defined and effective mission plan. It is surprising that Obama who was supposedly going to be a more consensual and less executive focused leader has been so willing to ignore congress.

3) The US must put more pressure on the Maliki government to treat protesters with fairness and dignity.

4) Weiner better get some message control going..

5) The real problem in reconstruction efforts for Afghanistan is a lack of collaboration between different government agencies combined with a lack of oversight and planning.

6) Really can't see how this is any different to Obama's plan. Obviously Obama also knows that Israel cannot negotiate on the issue of its jewish statehood.

7) Once again.. on the Babar Ahmad trial the CPS brought a case to trial that had no merit.


8) Some good news. As I wrote in the guardian, we are lucky to have these citizens.

Friday, May 27, 2011

1) Hillary Clinton was right to visit Pakistan. Whatever the problems in the US relationship with Pakistan, the US needs Pakistani support for a stable Afghanistan. While the ISI will continue to try and protect their own interests (marginalizing the influence of the US/getting US aid/hostile policy towards India), there are others in the Pakistani govt/military that have a more balanced outlook. It is true that they might not win out over anti-US elements, but it is also true that without US support the chances of their political defeat are substantially higher.

2) Now that Mladic has been captured we will have another opportunity to view the dysfunction of the Hague 'justice' system. His incarceration will be characterized by comparative luxury, his trial by extreme length and his punishment if (convicted) by terrible insufficiency.

3) The Senate was right to re-authorize the Patriot Act sunset provisions. I believe that there are sufficient safeguards in place to prevent abuse (important oversight is critical though). The capabilities that these provisions provide are also critical to national security. European investigative tools are far more intrusive and without similar safeguards. For example, the UK domestic Security Service - MI5, only requires the signature of the Home Secretary to authorize wiretaps. Political authority not judicial.

4) Could not agree more with Andrew Exum on Libya. Especially the PS note....

5) Instead of using Obama's speech as a reach out to Arab and Israeli moderates, we have allowed Hizballah to spin our reaction in their favor. Nasarallah is now openly supporting Assad as part of the righteous bulwark against the Israeli-US conspiracy. The hypocrisy of Hizballah's Assad support is stunning (supporting a dictator while painting themselves as revolutionary emancipators)  but its acceptance by Arab moderates is only possible through our own stupidity in playing into their traditional talking points. We should be embarrassed. Congress should read some books on the Middle East rather than reading polling data.

6) FIFA is in a state of meltdown. Sepp Blatter is an ass hole but it appears he may also be corrupt. Sadly their appears to be no one respectable available to replace him.

7) The Red Sox are on fire. A nice change from the early season.

8) The Champions League Final tomorrow should be a great game. Man Utd must follow the motto of the SAS.

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Tom Rogan Thinks..

1) Obama is speaking to the UK Parliament today. I hope he says that as part of a balanced relationship the US cannot be expected to subsidize European security.

2) The election of the Democrat in New York shows two things. 1) The tea party cannot win everywhere. The voters who went with the tea party candidate should consider the political value of their vote. 2) The Republicans need to do a much better job articulating the crisis facing Medicare. It should be the main Republican talking point at every stump speech to state that even with top rate tax increases the budget gap cannot begin to be resolved.

3) The Libya operation was always going to be complicated. The niavete of people who excitedly called for war was stunning. The Europeans must spend more on defence.

4) Obama has some good options for the next chairman of the joint chiefs. I think Ray Odierno would be the best pick. He has born the personal and professional burden of war.

5) Finally.. to all those who said that Obama is being anti-Israeli, read this poll.

6) The French Open is wide open. I still think Nadal will win. He sometimes takes a while to warm into the tournament.

Friday, May 20, 2011

Tom Rogan Thinks..

1) Failed Taliban attack on US diplomatic convoy - http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/21/world/asia/21pakistan.html?hp It makes my day when the Taliban/friends blow up one of their own people with no other casualties. All time favorite - the body cavity bomber - http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/oct/31/ibrahim-hassan-al-asiri-bombmaking-suspect


2) Libya is the definition of mission creep http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/21/world/africa/21libya.html?hp. I didn't support US involvement in the intervention, but now that we are committed we have to bring the conflict to resolution.


3) This will be great http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/13466915.stm
Some of Di Canio's 'finest' moments -


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWdf5ZLbtYo
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qw0kgk2qkDc
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9TFVuHrwgyY


4) Roddick saving his energy for one last attempt at Wimbledon - http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/tennis/french11/news/story?id=6567324