Tom Rogan Thinks..

1) General Dempsey will make a superb Chairman of the Joint Chiefs. He is bright, tough, grounded and has obvious attention to the costs that Iraq and Afghanistan have imposed (and continue to impose) on the Military and their families. Along with This article from seven years ago, it is clear to see why he was picked.

2) A very good article in the NyTimes concerning the above mentioned costs of war. As is this article from a couple of months back.

3) The FBI should transfer agents from its Counter-Terrorism Division into the Criminal Investigation Division. They can be assigned to supplement CT details on a reactive basis when the need arises. But the lesson of situations like this is that there are too many agents permanently assigned to 'terrorism' investigations. Of course, the political ramifications of such a change in approach are obvious. No one wants to transfer agents and then get blamed (likely unfairly) when terrorists do attack. But FBI agents are too valuable to waste on people like this guy.

4) The FIFA joke continues.

5) Barcelona's football yesterday was incredible. In my opinion this year's team is the best team in history.

1) Hillary Clinton was right to visit Pakistan. Whatever the problems in the US relationship with Pakistan, the US needs Pakistani support for a stable Afghanistan. While the ISI will continue to try and protect their own interests (marginalizing the influence of the US/getting US aid/hostile policy towards India), there are others in the Pakistani govt/military that have a more balanced outlook. It is true that they might not win out over anti-US elements, but it is also true that without US support the chances of their political defeat are substantially higher.

2) Now that Mladic has been captured we will have another opportunity to view the dysfunction of the Hague 'justice' system. His incarceration will be characterized by comparative luxury, his trial by extreme length and his punishment if (convicted) by terrible insufficiency.

3) The Senate was right to re-authorize the Patriot Act sunset provisions. I believe that there are sufficient safeguards in place to prevent abuse (important oversight is critical though). The capabilities that these provisions provide are also critical to national security. European investigative tools are far more intrusive and without similar safeguards. For example, the UK domestic Security Service - MI5, only requires the signature of the Home Secretary to authorize wiretaps. Political authority not judicial.

4) Could not agree more with Andrew Exum on Libya. Especially the PS note....

5) Instead of using Obama's speech as a reach out to Arab and Israeli moderates, we have allowed Hizballah to spin our reaction in their favor. Nasarallah is now openly supporting Assad as part of the righteous bulwark against the Israeli-US conspiracy. The hypocrisy of Hizballah's Assad support is stunning (supporting a dictator while painting themselves as revolutionary emancipators)  but its acceptance by Arab moderates is only possible through our own stupidity in playing into their traditional talking points. We should be embarrassed. Congress should read some books on the Middle East rather than reading polling data.

6) FIFA is in a state of meltdown. Sepp Blatter is an ass hole but it appears he may also be corrupt. Sadly their appears to be no one respectable available to replace him.

7) The Red Sox are on fire. A nice change from the early season.

8) The Champions League Final tomorrow should be a great game. Man Utd must follow the motto of the SAS.

Tom Rogan Thinks..

1) The FIFA scandal http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/9481461.stm is a disaster for two reasons. Firstly in the suggestion that the World Cup wins for Qatar and Russia may have been bought. Secondly in that the allegations were not made prior to the World Cup allocation, through fear of defamation suits being brought in English courts. In one example we see the true cost of England's disastrous defamation laws. By the perceived absence of a public interest protection and the heavy burden of evidence that publishers/speakers must present to support their story, speech is avoided and the chilling effect becomes real. Sepp Blatter needs to resign, this should be the final nail in his already heavily nailed coffin. FIFA also now needs to conduct a major investigation into the allegations. If proven, the bid process should be reconstituted and Qatar/Russia stripped of their tournaments.




2) The debate on Afghanistan that is following Bin Laden's death is to be expected, but for me it is also problematic. the Obama counter-insurgency surge (a strategy I wrote in support of -http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2009/oct/29/obama-mcchrystal-afghanistan ) has produced major security and governance gains across Afghanistan. These successes are creating space for political reconciliation by building local empowerment that increasingly rejects the Taliban. While the corruption of the Karzai administration is  a major issue and while local governance is no where near the level of proficiency we would hope to see, I would argue that with a little more time (2-3 years) we can and we will reach a point in which violence and meaningful political stability; stability characterized by a just, albeit basic democratic peace will emerge. This evolution will allow an orderly and meaningful withdrawal of forces. We have lost much blood and treasure to the effort in Afghanistan and in a situation where a positive outcome is increasingly possible, we have a strategic and moral responsibility to stay and finish the mission.


3) It is a tragedy that HAMAS still does not accept that they cannot win. There will be no peace until they change their outlook towards Israel or they become politically isolated. I suspect the later will happen. People are tired of the cycles of violence. http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/hamas-accepts-1967-borders-but-will-never-recognize-israel-top-official-says-1.361072


5) Finally.. Roberto Mancini successfully navigates the Sea of Egos - http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/13346933.stm Good for him.