North Korea, Afghanistan

US Military Forces Korea are beginning Key Resolve (the annual joint US-RoK major military exercise). While this action is nothing new, it's taking place at a time of escalated tension. The North Koreans are unhappy because of new UN sanctions that were imposed following their latest nuclear test. In a standard manifestation of their dissatisfaction, for the last few days they've been threatening nuclear war. Anyway, in the aftermath of their last test, I argued that the North Koreans must be made to understand that attempts at nuclear blackmail will not succeed. My position is pretty clear - North Korea can be deterred by a US policy of confident strength. Conversely, if you just want a laugh, check out North Korean propaganda reporting the US 'snow/starvation crisis'.

On a different note, Hamid Karzai is a disgusting weasel. Afghanistan's fragile semi-democracy survives on a transfusion of American/ISAF blood and treasure. Karzai would be dead without the courage and skill of American service personnel (DEVGRU saved his life in 2002). By suggesting that the Taliban and the United States are in cahoots, Karzai dishonors those who have given their lives for his country. Karzai's words also make securing a stable, peaceful and prosperous Afghan future that much more difficult. An objective that is additionally complicated by the ongoing strategic deficiency of the Obama Administration.

Kajaki Dam stupidity

First, please see my Guardian piece on Afghanistan. It outlines my core approach to the conflict.

USAID (the US Government's foreign development agency) has decided to remove US funding and end major support for the completion of the Kajaki Dam in Afghanistan. This action represents strategic insanity and a betrayal of the men and women (American, British and Afghan) who have given their lives in defense of this crucial initiative. Why am I so angry? Because the dam offers the prospect of bringing electricity to an area of Afghanistan (Helmand) that has long been a hotbed for insurgent activity. And by providing the literal fuel for economic-social development, the dam could achieve a major, sustainable success on the part of ISAF and the Afghan Government. A physical tool to suck support away from the Taliban and help lay the foundation for a more hopeful, peaceful future in Afghanistan's south. However, by terminating US support, US AID will probably end up killing the project. The Afghan Government simply doesn't have the capability and drive to get it done. Lead by Karzai (aka Mr. Moron) and without US leadership, the dam will probably end up being stripped in a corruption feeding frenzy.

From my perspective, this decision represents yet another example of the Obama Administration's policy failure in Afghanistan. An approach that's been defined by the pursuit of a narrow domestic political agenda in preference to the demands of national security. It makes no sense. And it isn't just me saying this, it's also the distinguished scholar, Vali Nasr.

Be under no illusions, as much as some would wish it to be so, the War on Terror will not end with Afghanistan. And Muslims will suffer rather than benefit from our rush to the exit.

Night Raids - Afghanistan

The ongoing night raids by US special forces in Afghanistan are necessary, proportionate and effective. They allow a clinical (albeit not perfect) application of force against identified individuals. Individuals who are playing critical roles in supporting the insurgency; constructing IEDs, organising local Taliban groups and facilitating flows of support from Pakistan and elsewhere into the country. Stopping these raids would allow the Taliban and their allies to consolidate power again and would risk undoing the substantial coalition success that has been achieved over the last year. Hopefully the US can find some measure of compromise with the Karzai government. Perhaps offering to partner more Afghan forces with US forces on these missions.

Tom Rogan Thinks..

1) The FIFA scandal http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/9481461.stm is a disaster for two reasons. Firstly in the suggestion that the World Cup wins for Qatar and Russia may have been bought. Secondly in that the allegations were not made prior to the World Cup allocation, through fear of defamation suits being brought in English courts. In one example we see the true cost of England's disastrous defamation laws. By the perceived absence of a public interest protection and the heavy burden of evidence that publishers/speakers must present to support their story, speech is avoided and the chilling effect becomes real. Sepp Blatter needs to resign, this should be the final nail in his already heavily nailed coffin. FIFA also now needs to conduct a major investigation into the allegations. If proven, the bid process should be reconstituted and Qatar/Russia stripped of their tournaments.




2) The debate on Afghanistan that is following Bin Laden's death is to be expected, but for me it is also problematic. the Obama counter-insurgency surge (a strategy I wrote in support of -http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2009/oct/29/obama-mcchrystal-afghanistan ) has produced major security and governance gains across Afghanistan. These successes are creating space for political reconciliation by building local empowerment that increasingly rejects the Taliban. While the corruption of the Karzai administration is  a major issue and while local governance is no where near the level of proficiency we would hope to see, I would argue that with a little more time (2-3 years) we can and we will reach a point in which violence and meaningful political stability; stability characterized by a just, albeit basic democratic peace will emerge. This evolution will allow an orderly and meaningful withdrawal of forces. We have lost much blood and treasure to the effort in Afghanistan and in a situation where a positive outcome is increasingly possible, we have a strategic and moral responsibility to stay and finish the mission.


3) It is a tragedy that HAMAS still does not accept that they cannot win. There will be no peace until they change their outlook towards Israel or they become politically isolated. I suspect the later will happen. People are tired of the cycles of violence. http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/hamas-accepts-1967-borders-but-will-never-recognize-israel-top-official-says-1.361072


5) Finally.. Roberto Mancini successfully navigates the Sea of Egos - http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/13346933.stm Good for him.