Artillery Diplomacy - North Korea Tensions (Analysis)

Today, tensions on the Korean peninsula are at their highest levels since late 2010.

As of this posting (03:20 EST), North Korea has fired a number of artillery shells into South Korean waters near the Northern Limit Line (a traditional flashpoint area). RoK forces have responded with reciprocal artillery fire and have launched Combat Air Patrols into the area. 

The incident apparently began at about 12:15 local time (MON)/23:15 EST (SUN).

I have a number of thoughts.

1) This is North Korean strategy 101

Over the past two weeks, the North Koreans have been signaling their intention to increase tensions on the peninsula. This intent has been specifically evident both in North Korea's threats to conduct a ''new form'' of nuclear test and in recent missile launches. 

Now we have the artillery diplomacy.

It's an old game.

After all, North Korean political strategy has long resided upon a foundation of extortion. Believing that the international community lacks the confidence to compel them to alter course, the North smokes the air with the specter of war. 

North Korea thus uses its military as a kind of tolling booth for international security - 'Want peace? Then pay up.'

Of course, there's more at play here than random blackmail.

As I see it, the North probably had two specific motivations for sparking this latest crisis. First, the North Korean leadership wants to send a message of anger to the US/RoK in reference to war games. Second, the North Koreans want to remind the international community that the world does not begin and end with MH370 and Ukraine. 

Regardless, like any good extortionist, the North Koreans know that they have to be predictably unpredictable in order to succeed.

2) The potential for escalation is real

It's easy to regard the North Koreans as perpetual bluffers.

But that would be a serious mistake.

In fact, two factors make this latest crisis an especially dangerous one.

First, it's pretty clear that the North Korean regime is beset by growing factionalism. As the public purge of Chang Song-thaek illustrated back in December, Kim Jong-un remains obsessed by a ''factionalist filfth'' in the ruling elite. And while Kim has asserted greater control over the military, he appears to remain somewhat insecure. Correspondingly, the North Korean leader may consider that by increasing tensions with South Korea, he can consolidate his credentials as a strong leader. In flowing vein however, internal tensions in North Korea will make it much harder for Kim to back down if the South responds with confident resolution.

And this speaks to the second point.

The incumbent President of South Korea, President Park, is no 'sunshine-esque' Kim Dae-jung. Indeed, many in Park's party - New Frontier - are calling for an far tougher policy stance towards North Korea. As a result of this, we shouldn't expect the South Koreans to yield (nor should we). Still, the fact that the North Koreans gave South Korea advanced warning about this artillery 'exercise', could suggest that they want to avoid precipitous escalation. 

Nevertheless, it's critical to remember that the North Korean regime exists in a perpetual condition of near psychosis - incidents like the 'tree hacking attack' aren't just history. Rather, they are testaments to a totalitarian dynasty that is capable of just about anything. 

It's in this sense that the ultimate key to restraining North Korean aggression is not China. Instead, as I've argued before, North Korea can only be deterred by one thing - unwavering American resolve.

3) The Obama Administration/International Community have encouraged Kim Jong-un

From my perspective, the greatest failing of President Obama's foreign policy is the manner of its vacuum-like existence - the President seems to think that American adversaries pay no attention to US policy around the world. 

Except that the evidence is clear - the opposite is true. 

For one example, consider Russia.

During Putin's invasion of Georgia in 2008, President Bush helped restrain Russia by sending US Military flights into Tblisi. Conversely, as I argued last week, President Obama's hesitation has rewarded Putin's aggression in Ukraine. Yesterday, we saw the limits of Obama's rhetoric - ''a frank exchange''.

For another example, consider Iran.

Alongside Iran's continuing deception with regards to their nuclear program (see the latest IAEA reporting), the Islamic Republic has decided to appoint a new Ambassador to the UN - a man who once stormed the US Embassy in Tehran. 

It reeks of what it is - utter disdain for American power.

And North Korea sees all of this. 

For a regime that resides upon the appraisal of power as an end in itself, it's a catastrophic dynamic. Where Kim Jong-un senses weakness, he also sees opportunity. In turn, alongside the ludicrous dysfunction of the international community, President Obama's hesitation is empowering the worst instincts of authoritarians across the planet. While we gut our defense budgets, they continue their advance. I worried that this would happen.

If interested, please see my thoughts on North Korea's nuclear strategy.

North Korea - Yongbyon restart

The North Koreans are back to their usual games. Unfortunately, this time we can expect their nuclear brinkmanship to reach new levels. They'll regard President Obama as having folded on Syria. As an extension to that understanding, they'll also believe that American resolve is pliable. 

As I've argued before, when it comes to our engagement with North Korea - confident resolve is critical.

North Korea - what we're doing/should be doing

As I argued a few days ago (here and here), it's evident that the Obama Administration is concerned by the renewed threats coming from North Korea. From what we know so far, the US response has involved heavy bomber show of force flights, the deployment of an advanced missile defense system to Guam and the staging of US Navy Aegis BMD equipped destroyers (advanced missile defense systems) into the waters surrounding North Korea. It's also extremely likely that the US is refocusing significant image, signal and measurement intelligence assets towards North Korea. The objective - to know more about North Korea's intentions and capabilities, and to deter and defeat any North Korean aggression.

But I also believe that two others steps are now necessary. 

First, now that Kim Jong-Un has explicitly threatened to use nuclear weapons against the United States (for two weeks), President Obama needs to issue standing orders to the US Military. The President should order US forces to down any launched North Korean missile which threatens US or allied assets. Essentially, if a North Korean missile is heading towards Guam or Japan - shoot it down. That might seem obvious, but until now we've allowed the North Koreans to fire missiles over Japanese territory and towards Guam with impunity. That dynamic has to come to an end.

Second, as I argued a couple of weeks back, President Obama needs to issue a robust public statement on North Korea. My suggestion - 

In the event of an attack by agents or proxies of the North Korean state against our allies, the United States will render full spectrum support to our ally. Further, any nuclear attack, or attempted nuclear attack, against the United States or South Korea, by agents or proxies of the North Korean state, will be met by nuclear retaliation from the United States.

North Korea must understand that nuclear poker serves them no positive interest. They have bad cards and we know it. They know that we know, but they like to think that we lack the courage to stand up to them and thus that we pretend we don't know. As a result, Kim Jong-Un thinks that he can make us blink.

 

My NK piece for The Week - How the US should handle the nuclear threats of Kim Jong-Un

My older piece for The Guardian - Washington's message to Pyongyang

 

Sequester - North Korea

It's been interesting to see the deployment of US Military assets to South Korean territory in recent days. A response to ongoing threats from the North. These show of force efforts are necessary and justified, but they also illustrate another factor. A few weeks ago, the Obama Administration took a very different course (quite literally) when they pretended that the sequester was preventing the deployment of a carrier to the Persian Gulf. It now seems evident that with the sequester having taken effect, the Administration has decided to stop playing games with national security.

The situation with the North is tense. But cognizant of this danger, we should nonetheless have confidence. In our Army, Marine Corps, Navy and Air Force we have the greatest military force in the history of the world. 

And the North knows it.

North Korea threats..

Apologies for the recent absence of posts, I've been very busy this week. However, I did want to do a quick piece on North Korea. Re- North Korea's continuing threats, it's my opinion that the Obama Administration has intelligence that the North Koreans may be planning a military skirmish - something like this. 

Why do I hold this opinion? Because over the past couple of weeks, President Obama has ordered B-52 and B-2 'show of force' flights over South Korea. That measure of forcefulness is unusual from this President. It's more reminiscent of President Bush's style. From my perspective, the most likely explanation is that Obama genuinely believes the North Koreans are serious about causing new problems. As a corollary, the President also probably feels that he has little choice but to take aggressive deterrent measures in response. I'd also imagine that there's a lot of behind the scenes work going on at the US Embassy in Beijing.  

Anyway, the US show of force is necessary. North Korea must know America's resolve.

Here's my North Korea piece for The Week from a couple of weeks back. 

And my North Korea piece for The Guardian from a while back.

North Korea, Afghanistan

US Military Forces Korea are beginning Key Resolve (the annual joint US-RoK major military exercise). While this action is nothing new, it's taking place at a time of escalated tension. The North Koreans are unhappy because of new UN sanctions that were imposed following their latest nuclear test. In a standard manifestation of their dissatisfaction, for the last few days they've been threatening nuclear war. Anyway, in the aftermath of their last test, I argued that the North Koreans must be made to understand that attempts at nuclear blackmail will not succeed. My position is pretty clear - North Korea can be deterred by a US policy of confident strength. Conversely, if you just want a laugh, check out North Korean propaganda reporting the US 'snow/starvation crisis'.

On a different note, Hamid Karzai is a disgusting weasel. Afghanistan's fragile semi-democracy survives on a transfusion of American/ISAF blood and treasure. Karzai would be dead without the courage and skill of American service personnel (DEVGRU saved his life in 2002). By suggesting that the Taliban and the United States are in cahoots, Karzai dishonors those who have given their lives for his country. Karzai's words also make securing a stable, peaceful and prosperous Afghan future that much more difficult. An objective that is additionally complicated by the ongoing strategic deficiency of the Obama Administration.

North Korea nuclear test

North Korea appears to have used a nuclear weapon. In response, the US must lead a major international effort to tighten sanctions against Kim Jong-un's dictatorship. The Supreme Leader must be made to understand that his nuclear blackmail is utterly unacceptable. Developing this security posture would also send a clear message to Iran. Anyway, for me, the new sanctions should focus on three key areas.

• Target Chinese financial entities that do business with North Korea.

• Aggressively pursue the criminal syndicates which fuel the patronage networks of the North Korean ruling elite.

• Deny North Korea access to international institutions and aid.

Here's what I wrote a few days ago -

North Korea is threatening a further nuclear test and evidence suggests that this threat is more than rhetoric. While the North Koreans are steadily improving their ICBM capability, we already know that they have an albeit basic nuclear weapons facility. To be honest, although the North Koreans are loud, aggressive and seemingly unpredictable, their unpredictability has predictable contours. In essence, North Korea's foreign policy is similar to the actions of a young child. When a child wants attention or gifts, they cry. When North Korea wants attention or gifts (economic aid), it threatens war. True, the North Koreans sometimes take major action, most recently sinking a South Korean ship in 2010. But it's also true that whether headed by il-Sung, Jong-il or Jong-un, the North Korean regime resides on a foundation of luxury and patronage. It's leaders don't want to die. For all their threats, the North Koreans are cognizant that war with the US would be an act of suicide. With American resolve and strength, North Korea can be deterred.

Jindal on GOP, Iraq strife, Syria, US in Mali, North Korea

A few issues today.

1) BOBBY JINDAL has said that the GOP needs to stop being stupid. He's right. But unfortunately, the problem goes far deeper than defective PR messaging and the occasional rape remark. The hard truth is that the GOP is disconnected from far too many Americans. Jindal was wrong to pretend that a simple turn of phrase will alleviate this condition of political dysfunction. Instead, conservatives need real, substantial Republican evolution. Evolution that doesn't dilute conservatism, but re-frames and re-energizes conservatism for the 21st century. We need a message that connects with inner city Americans. We need to forge a social conservatism that serves society. We need to build broad coalitions. And most certainly, WE NEED a party valuing of intellectual curiosity, rather than condemning of debate as subversion and treason. If conservatives don't address these problems, we will keep loosing elections. It's not my opinion, it's the 21st century.

Side note- If Republicans select credible candidates, the GOP can re-take the Senate in 2014.

2) IRAQ is not looking good. Five Sunni protesters were killed by government forces in Fallujah yesterday. Now the head of the Anbar Awakening Council (which was critical in helping the US Military restrain Al Qa'ida in Iraq) has threatened insurrection against government forces in Iraq's huge western province. It's important to understand that this situation is not the product of a single incident. For the past couple of years, tensions between the Shia dominated Iraqi Government and Iraqi Sunnis have steadily increased. On the one hand, the Iraqi Prime Minister, Maliki, fears a return to a Sunni dominated autocracy like that of Saddam Hussein. However, in order to guard against this, Maliki is making the terrible error of creating his own semi-autocracy. In doing so, he is playing into the hands of violent extremists like the Islamic State of Iraq coalition (an heir to Al Qa'ida in Iraq) which find power in Sunni fear. These terrorists are attempting to drive Iraq into a 2006 style sectarian civil war. And if that happens, you can guarantee that every agitator in Iraq (cue- al-Sadr)/the region (cue - Iran) will poke out their heads in order to make things even worse. To avoid this calamity, Maliki needs to engage in substantial cross-sectarian dialogue with his primary political rival- al-Iraqiya (the nationalist block). If Iraq returns to the abyss, the consequences will be catastrophic.

3) ASSAD's regime continues its downward spiral towards defeat. Following the rebels capture of Taftanaz, heavy fighting is now underway in the south-west Damascus suburb of Darayya, about two miles from Damascus city center (check google maps to see the proximity). As Nicholas Blanford's notes, the regime and its allies are investing all their resources in this last gasp battle. As a further example of the regime's endangerment, Iran is loudly trying to deter western intervention by issuing threats of a counter-response. I believe that as the rebels begin to encroach on central Damascus, the psychological pressure on the regime will cause an irreversible crumble in its power- those who can flee will do so (I expect Assad among them), those who cannot flee will try and hide. Only the extreme hardliners will remain and they will be defeated.

4) CONCERNING MALI, the French Government is now requesting major support from the US. They need our refueling assets, our logistical transport capabilities and our ISTAR resources. They need these things because for many years they have elected not to spend on these crucial assets. The French (as with their EU partners) believe it is preferable to have American taxpayers carry the weight of international security. I have to be honest, this infuriates me. European governments love to claim that they are modern servants of the enlightenment - spending on social welfare instead of on an effective military capability. During peacetime, Europeans criticize the US for our military expenditures. But without us, they are impotent. This is the false moralism of EU defense policy. Every time that military force is applied, the gaping holes in European military power become apparent. We should provide France with the support that they need, but the French must carry the cost (probably wishful thinking on my part) and President Obama should make an open statement condemning European hypocrisy on defense issues/spending (definitely wishful thinking).

5) NORTH KOREA is threatening a further nuclear test and evidence suggests that this threat is more than rhetoric. While the North Koreans are steadily improving their ICBM capability, we already know that they have an albeit basic nuclear weapons capability. To be honest, while the North Koreans are loud, aggressive and seemingly unpredictable, their unpredictability has predictable contours. In essence, North Korea's foreign policy is similar to the actions of a young child. When a child wants attention or gifts, they cry. When North Korea wants attention or gifts (economic aid), it threatens war. True, the North Koreans sometimes take major action, most recently sinking a South Korean ship in 2010. But it's also true that whether headed by il-Sung, Jong-il or Jong-un, the North Korean regime resides on a foundation of luxury and patronage. It's leaders don't want to die. For all their threats, the North Koreans are cognizant that war with the US would be an act of suicide. With American resolve and strength, North Korea can be deterred.

North Korea missile test

From my perspective, the latest North Korean missile test raises three immediate points.

1) North Korea's decision to fire the missile over Okinawa is a deliberate challenge to the United States (the US has a major military presence on the island). The US response must be clear and robust. While it is likely that this test is partly the result of Kim Jong Un's desire to flex his muscles and in so improve his credibility with the North Korean generals, it's also important that consequences follow this provocation. As such, the United States should summon a UN Security Council meeting to condemn North Korea and to begin moves to tighten international sanctions against the regime. The North Korean leadership must be made to understand that every action like this one, drives them further away from a detente with the international community. A detente that North Korea desperately needs in order to strengthen their presently shambolic economy.

2) North Korea's ballistic missile capability is improving. The regime's paranoia and predictably unpredictable behavior mean that North Korea will become an increasing international security challenge in at least the near-medium term future. The United States and the international community must ensure that we do not neglect the need to be vigilant in the face of increasing North Korean aggression. International security does not begin and end in the Middle East.

3) Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their destructive enabling components (for example ballistic missiles) presents the key security concern of our age. As I've noted with regards to other parts of the world, we must be attuned to this threat.

North Korea missile screw up

From my perspective, the North Korean missile failure tells us 4 things.

1) North Korean missile technology is still poor. The missile broke up very shortly after launch.

2) Iran's ballistic missile technology is also probably weaker than the Iranians present (the North Koreans have been assisting Iran in this area so it would follow that the Iranians may have similar issues). Israel will have been attentive to this North Korean test.

3) Kim Jong Un will want to stage some kind of attention seeking event in the near future. This failure will do damage to the prestige of his new authority. The North Korean leadership are like children, they want attention. In this regard they use international fear of their rationality/aggression to extract concessions like food aid and fuel. The international community should call their bluff and instead show unity in demanding that North Korea engage in meaningful, long term dialogue.

4) Kim Jong Un is not (at this stage) a reformer. In pursuing this test he sacrificed a chance at rapprochement with the US (even in the context of knowing that the chances of success were not great).