North Korea nuclear test

North Korea appears to have used a nuclear weapon. In response, the US must lead a major international effort to tighten sanctions against Kim Jong-un's dictatorship. The Supreme Leader must be made to understand that his nuclear blackmail is utterly unacceptable. Developing this security posture would also send a clear message to Iran. Anyway, for me, the new sanctions should focus on three key areas.

• Target Chinese financial entities that do business with North Korea.

• Aggressively pursue the criminal syndicates which fuel the patronage networks of the North Korean ruling elite.

• Deny North Korea access to international institutions and aid.

Here's what I wrote a few days ago -

North Korea is threatening a further nuclear test and evidence suggests that this threat is more than rhetoric. While the North Koreans are steadily improving their ICBM capability, we already know that they have an albeit basic nuclear weapons facility. To be honest, although the North Koreans are loud, aggressive and seemingly unpredictable, their unpredictability has predictable contours. In essence, North Korea's foreign policy is similar to the actions of a young child. When a child wants attention or gifts, they cry. When North Korea wants attention or gifts (economic aid), it threatens war. True, the North Koreans sometimes take major action, most recently sinking a South Korean ship in 2010. But it's also true that whether headed by il-Sung, Jong-il or Jong-un, the North Korean regime resides on a foundation of luxury and patronage. It's leaders don't want to die. For all their threats, the North Koreans are cognizant that war with the US would be an act of suicide. With American resolve and strength, North Korea can be deterred.

North Korea missile test

From my perspective, the latest North Korean missile test raises three immediate points.

1) North Korea's decision to fire the missile over Okinawa is a deliberate challenge to the United States (the US has a major military presence on the island). The US response must be clear and robust. While it is likely that this test is partly the result of Kim Jong Un's desire to flex his muscles and in so improve his credibility with the North Korean generals, it's also important that consequences follow this provocation. As such, the United States should summon a UN Security Council meeting to condemn North Korea and to begin moves to tighten international sanctions against the regime. The North Korean leadership must be made to understand that every action like this one, drives them further away from a detente with the international community. A detente that North Korea desperately needs in order to strengthen their presently shambolic economy.

2) North Korea's ballistic missile capability is improving. The regime's paranoia and predictably unpredictable behavior mean that North Korea will become an increasing international security challenge in at least the near-medium term future. The United States and the international community must ensure that we do not neglect the need to be vigilant in the face of increasing North Korean aggression. International security does not begin and end in the Middle East.

3) Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their destructive enabling components (for example ballistic missiles) presents the key security concern of our age. As I've noted with regards to other parts of the world, we must be attuned to this threat.

North Korea missile screw up

From my perspective, the North Korean missile failure tells us 4 things.

1) North Korean missile technology is still poor. The missile broke up very shortly after launch.

2) Iran's ballistic missile technology is also probably weaker than the Iranians present (the North Koreans have been assisting Iran in this area so it would follow that the Iranians may have similar issues). Israel will have been attentive to this North Korean test.

3) Kim Jong Un will want to stage some kind of attention seeking event in the near future. This failure will do damage to the prestige of his new authority. The North Korean leadership are like children, they want attention. In this regard they use international fear of their rationality/aggression to extract concessions like food aid and fuel. The international community should call their bluff and instead show unity in demanding that North Korea engage in meaningful, long term dialogue.

4) Kim Jong Un is not (at this stage) a reformer. In pursuing this test he sacrificed a chance at rapprochement with the US (even in the context of knowing that the chances of success were not great).