Showing posts with label al-Shabab. Show all posts
Showing posts with label al-Shabab. Show all posts

Monday, October 7, 2013

Tripoli/Baraawe - Special Forces methodology

First, please see my post from Saturday (I've updated with new information). 

Reports suggest that the US Army's ACE (aka Delta Force) was involved in the Tripoli operation to seize al-Liby. This news shouldn't surprise anyone. After all, we already know that the FBI/CIA were involved in the capture. In that vein, Delta's involvement would have afforded an extra contingency capability had al-Liby/allies resisted the strike team. As this video illustrates, direct action orientated special forces (like Delta) focus on overpowering their adversaries with speed and overwhelming force. The key to their tactical methodology is to psychologically and physically dominate a target in a manner that denies the opportunity for effective resistance.

That being said...

The SEAL raid against the Baraawe compound illustrates an equally important counterpoint - even Tier One SMUs have their limits. In terms of the Baraawe assault, once the SEALs presence became known, the odds quickly shifted against them. In short, they were outmanned and outgunned in hostile territory. At that point, they were forced to withdraw under fire. 

Taken together, the Tripoli/Baraawe operations speak to two fundamental truths. 

First, that a small group of highly trained individuals can achieve a major strategic effect (whether removing one senior Al Qa'ida leader from the battlefield - or eviscerating an enemy network*). Second, that special forces are neither superhuman nor bullet proof. In the end, the employment of these forces requires a situationally weighted calculation of risk v reward and a policymaker understanding that Von Moltke's law continues to abide- "No plan of operations extends with certainty beyond the first encounter with the enemy.''

*  1) If you prefer a video explanation... click here. 2) I'm very astute to growing insecurity in Iraq.

Please see related links.


Saturday, October 5, 2013

Capture of Anas al-Liby/Navy SEAL strike against al-Shabab

The near-simultaneous capture of Anas al-Liby, a longtime Al Qa'ida planning and logistics officer (and a suspected plotter for the 1998 US Embassy bombings), represents an important counter-terrorism success for the United States. His detention will also allow for some relief at GMP, New Scotland Yard and Thames House - embarrassingly, al-Liby was granted asylum in the UK until 2000 and then escaped the country before a belated raid by UK authorities. One positive - he left behind AQ's operational handbook aka the 'Manchester Manual'. That intelligence coup afforded western intelligence services a crucial insight into AQ's operational methodology. Anyway, these two actions illustrate the US counter-terrorism apparatus at its best - patient, resourceful and decisive.

(Updated 01:20 EST Sunday): Early Saturday, a force of DEVGRU SEALs attacked an al-Shabab compound on the Somali coast. The New York Times reports a US Government source as stating that the attack took place after a period of 7-10 days of planning. This suggests that the US had high confidence intelligence that their intended target would be at the location. Nevertheless, the BBC is reporting that the assault failed to capture or kill the target. We'll have to wait for a few more hours for confirmation on that. Regardless, it does appear that the SEALs encountered heavier than expected resistance and were forced to withdraw.
          Two weeks ago, I suggested that this specific type of military operation would likely form an increasingly important element of the US response to the Westgate atrocity. Though US counter-terrorism operations in Somalia are far from a new development, I'm glad that President Obama appears to have ordered an increasingly aggressive US posture against al-Shabab.

Like the global Salafi-Jihadist movement it supports, al-Shabab must be confronted.

Finally, it's worth remembering that we're lucky to have such skillful special forces units at our disposal. Their capabilities are hard won.

Related thoughts - under 'Other' section.

Monday, September 23, 2013

Massacre in Nairobi

For my core thoughts, please read my latest piece for the National Review Online.

Here are two further thoughts.

1) The attack undoubtedly involved a significant degree of operational planning. This preparation likely included advance reconnaissance, specific training and a considerable mobilization of manpower and resources. In this vein, it's telling that the US Intelligence Community apparently had no information to suggest a major attack was about take place. Combined with reports which suggest that three Americans may have participated in this atrocity, the US government appears to lack a satisfactory intelligence penetration of the al-Shabab network. This is a serious concern. Over the past few years, a number of Americans have traveled to Somalia to fight alongside al-Shabab. Others have provided the group with funding support. As is the case regarding US Citizens in Syria, a major fear is that Americans in Somalia will return to the United States to conduct attacks (see my recent piece on Zawahiri). In the aftermath of this incident, we can expect a beefing up of the FBI's East-Africa focused counter-terrorism teams.

2) The attack matrix was clearly orientated around a Mumbai 2008 style model: a heavily armed force seeking maximum destruction against a soft target. The cell's objective - to stay alive as long as possible - to kill as many people as possible. Due to the fact that shopping centers attract large crowds but lack major security capabilities, locales like Westgate are exceptionally difficult to protect. A further complication- mobile cells of suicide attackers pose a serious challenge for responding tactical teams. Counter terrorism officers must balance hostage rescue efforts with the containment of the attackers. The first priority is to prevent terrorist skirmishing squads from breaking off into various parts of a city.

Relevant thoughts - 'Other' section

Sunday, May 5, 2013

Selected writings on Middle East and related/unrelated security issues (Ignore date tag)

This page is regularly updated (please ignore the May 5th date tag).  Most recent writings tend to be at the top of each header section. Writings on other issues related to security/intelligence/counter-terrorism/AQ Core etc. are listed in the OTHER section towards the end of this post.

Relevant academic background - I hold a BA in War Studies from King's College London and a Masters degree in Middle East Politics from The School of Oriental and African Studies, London.

IRAN

Iran Deal: Just a piece of paper. For now
. (Christian Science Monitor)

Iran Nuclear Program - Discussion and Analysis (TV - Global Voice Hall)

5 Benefits of US-Israel Negotiating Discord - How it makes a good nuclear deal more likely (National Review Online)


Flow Chart - Predicting the ramifications of an Israeli military operation against Iran (Blog)

Flow Chart - Predicting the regional ramifications of a nuclear armed Iran (Blog)

US Navy deployments... Iran? (Blog)

How Obama can achieve a good nuclear deal with Iran (The Guardian)

How to manage a nuclear theocracy (Blog)

2 Presidents and 3 diplomatic delusions regarding Iran (Blog)

4 Takeaways from the Filkins study of Qassem Suleimani (Blog)


Iran, the US and the UN - A skeptical take (Blog) 


Iran plans retaliation if US strikes Assad (Blog)


President Rouhani and the continuing risk of conflict (Blog)


The geo-strategic impact of Iran attaining a nuclear weapons capability (The Commentator)


How domestic politics influences Iranian, US and Israeli foreign policy (Blog)


How Iran will use brinkmanship to protect its nuclear program (The Guardian)


Israel could attack Iran without causing a major war in the region (The Guardian)


Iran and Diplomacy (Blog)


Strategic interplay in the Near/Middle East (The Daily Caller)


Netanyahu at the UN (Blog)

Netanyahu's strategy on Iran (The Daily Caller)

Iran plots against US and How US should have responded (Blog)

SYRIA/LEBANESE HIZBALLAH/LEBANON/ (together due to overlap in the pieces)

Putin's deal is a catastrophe for Syria and the US (The Guardian)


A key difference between Bush and Obama (Blog)


Thoughts on Geneva (Radio 660 AM The Answer) 


Putin's letter - Analysis (Blog)


The American Retreat (Blog)


Syria WMD deal? The ultimate political Ponzi scheme (Blog)


The American Choice in International Affairs (National Review Online)


Syria - a pivotal week for America (Blog)


How the Bin Laden raid can guide US intervention in Syria (Blog)


Syria - 4 myths infecting the intervention debate (Blog)


Talking Syria/Congress (TV - Al Jazeera America)


Syria - US policy challenges (Radio - 660 AM The Answer)


Obama goes to Congress on Syria: Big mistake (The Week)


Kerry press conference (Blog)

Why the British Government vetoed intervention in Syria (Blog)

Syria and US Foreign Policy - Values and Outcomes (Blog)


Syria Update... (Blog)

Why the US should intervene against Assad (Monocle 24 Radio)


Obama fails to lead on Syria (The Guardian)


5 proposals for American intervention in Syria (Blog)

Actors in the Syrian Civil War - Flow Chart (Blog)

The suffering of Syria, the shame of America (Blog)

It's time to arm the Syrian rebels (The Week) 

On the EU's Hizballah delusion (Blog)

How the US should deal with Assad's chemical weapons threat (Huffington Post)




Why Hizballah will desert Assad before the end (The Guardian) (I still support the essence of my argument here, but in hindsight, it's also clear that I placed too much emphasis on Hizballah's concerns over domestic/regional political perception.)

IRAQ


AL QA'IDA in the ARABIAN PENINSULA

7 Thoughts on the August 2013 AQAP threat (Blog)


BBC World Service discussion on August 2013 AQAP threat (BBC)


AQAP Intelligence Leaks (Blog)


On the Foiled 2012 AQAP plot (Blog)


EGYPT 


Five observations about Egypt chaos (Fox News)


Egypt and the failure of US policy (Blog)


Why the Egyptian Army Issued Morsi a Deadline (Blog)


Why Egypt Needs Democracy (Blog)

SOMALIA/AL-SHABAB

Tripoli/Baraawe - Special Forces Methodology (Blog)

Capture of Anas al-Liby/Strike Against al-Shabab (Blog) 

The Evil of Global Jihad (National Review Online)

How the US must respond to the Westgate Mall attack (Blog)


ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN CONFLICT


Why the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks are worthwhile (Blog)

American conservatives should support the peace process (Blog)

Why America is right to support Israel (Blog)


LIBYA

Capture of Anas al-Liby/Strike against al-Shabab (Blog)

Obama's subversion of war powers (The Guardian)


Assessing allegations of a CIA cover-up in Benghazi (Blog) 

Benghazi and why truth makes a difference (Blog)


OTHER - (Somewhat relevant here: In 
2008, 2009, 2010 and 2012, I was the Deputy Lead Player Escort (#2 rank), G4S – Wimbledon Tennis ChampionshipsThis role involved ensuring player/VIP security during the tournament and required extensive liaison with the UK's Metropolitan Police Service and other parties.

Why Islamic extremists don't appreciate satire (Blog)

Notes on Sayyid Qutb (Blog) 

British Jihadists in Syria (Blog)

The Evil of Global Jihad (National Review Online)

Debate - Is America right to spy on Europe? (BBC)

Why America should spy on Europe (National Review Online)

US Intelligence Operations in Europe (Al Jazeera America)

Merkel and the NSA - Analysis (Blog)

A delicate dance - France and the NSA (Blog)

In Defense of Drones (National Review Online)

UK Intelligence Chiefs - Analysis of Testimony (Blog)

London Counter-Terrorism arrests, Snowden and UK Intelligence (Blog)

Oct 2013 London Counter-Terrorism arrests (Blog) 

Zawahiri and AQ Core's evolving strategy (Blog)

Brazil, the NSA and a Snowdened state visit (Blog)

The protection of President Obama's family shouldn't be political football (The Guardian)



On the drone debate (Blog)


Why I support the CIA's UCAV (drone) program (Blog)


Obama must not undo success of surge in Afghanistan (The Guardian)


The role of religion, the definition of terrorism - beware the original thinkers (Blog)


Why the Tsarnaevs turned to terrorism (Blog)


Why Guantanamo Bay should remain open (The Daily Caller)


BBC World Service debate on Guantanamo Bay (Radio) (BBC)


BBC World News debate on Guantanamo Bay (TV) (BBC)

Why Muslims must confront Islamic extremism (Blog)


In Defense of Lawful Secrecy (The Week)


Analysis of Washington Post Intelligence Community reporting (Blog)


The Challenge of Hostage Rescue Operations (Blog)


The War on Terror isn't over. Here's how the US can win it (The Week)


Republicans must speak out against attacks on our Muslim fellow citizens (The Daily Caller)


Conservatives and Counter-Terrorism (The Week)
(All pretty serious topics, so here's some pleasant music...)