A delicate dance: France responds to the NSA

Following their earlier reporting, Le Monde is now claiming that the NSA targeted French diplomats at the UN and at the French Embassy in Washington (the BBC has a de-emotionalized summary).

Are we supposed to be shocked?

Look, I get that the French Government is angry. As a result of Snowden's leaks, President Hollande is being forced to navigate a tripartite political minefield - expressing dissatisfaction to sate populist anger, but doing so in a way that averts damage to the US relationship and avoids undesired attention from flowing towards DGSE SIGINT programs. This last point is of critical importance. French Intelligence doesn't simply collect on security/foreign policy related targets, they attempt to siphon data from US Intelligence platforms and they aggressively target private companies - engaging in industrial espionage of the type that characterized the KGB. They also monitor French citizens with zealous alacrity. In short, their behavior is far from sanctified.

But let's be clear, the NSA related accusations are far from surprising. Informational awareness is a cornerstone of international diplomacy. It makes sense and it's nothing new. As Susan Rice (apparently) put it, ''[NSA activities at the UN] helped me know... the truth, and reveal other [countries'] positions on sanctions, allowing us to keep one step ahead in the negotiations.'' As I've noted before, the US has understandable reasons to spy on European allies - interests align at certain junctures and separate at others.

All of this speaks to a broader point. No alliance is perfect. The US-Israeli intelligence relationship provides one such example of this truth. Ultimately, deep trust is contingent upon a long term, proven relationship. Like that of the 'five eyes' community (and specifically the US-UK intelligence alliance). Even then, complications are still present.

In the end however, defining interests define a relationship. As was the case with Brazil, this minor scandal will die down. Its perpetuation serves neither France nor the United States.

Massacre in Nairobi

For my core thoughts, please read my latest piece for the National Review Online.

Here are two further thoughts.

1) The attack undoubtedly involved a significant degree of operational planning. This preparation likely included advance reconnaissance, specific training and a considerable mobilization of manpower and resources. In this vein, it's telling that the US Intelligence Community apparently had no information to suggest a major attack was about take place. Combined with reports which suggest that three Americans may have participated in this atrocity, the US government appears to lack a satisfactory intelligence penetration of the al-Shabab network. This is a serious concern. Over the past few years, a number of Americans have traveled to Somalia to fight alongside al-Shabab. Others have provided the group with funding support. As is the case regarding US Citizens in Syria, a major fear is that Americans in Somalia will return to the United States to conduct attacks (see my recent piece on Zawahiri). In the aftermath of this incident, we can expect a beefing up of the FBI's East-Africa focused counter-terrorism teams.

2) The attack matrix was clearly orientated around a Mumbai 2008 style model: a heavily armed force seeking maximum destruction against a soft target. The cell's objective - to stay alive as long as possible - to kill as many people as possible. Due to the fact that shopping centers attract large crowds but lack major security capabilities, locales like Westgate are exceptionally difficult to protect. A further complication- mobile cells of suicide attackers pose a serious challenge for responding tactical teams. Counter terrorism officers must balance hostage rescue efforts with the containment of the attackers. The first priority is to prevent terrorist skirmishing squads from breaking off into various parts of a city.

Relevant thoughts - 'Other' section

Brazil, the NSA and a Snowdened State Visit...

The Snowden induced diplomatic fallout continues...

Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff has decided to cancel a looming state visit to the United States. In short, Rousseff is angry that the NSA has been spying on her government. 

Although the cancellation is obviously a major embarrassment for the US (state visits are regarded as the highest form of diplomatic honor), President Obama has agreed with this decision (or so his Press Secretary claims). Anyway, from my perspective this is all a bit overblown. Sure, the Brazilians are pissed off. That's understandable. Nevertheless, as I've argued before, robust and wide ranging US intelligence operations are both lawful and necessary. The US Government is certainly far from unique in its pursuit of information. 

To be clear, the Brazilian government is fully aware as to why espionage occurs. Behind closed doors, they probably aren't that bothered about this scandal (positive US-Brazilian relations are simply too important for both nations). 

            That being said, President Rousseff has to balance practical reality with domestic political reality (placating Brazilian nationalism)... Brazil's next election takes place in a little over a year.

Incidentally, new reports suggest that the NSA may have also operated a major proxy-station intercept program in Belgium. Again, this would make sense... Belgium is home to a significant number of Islamist extremists. The US has a compelling state interest in monitoring these individuals.

The ultimate truth behind NSA activities? 

9/11 taught the US Government that it cannot rely upon others to defend the American people.

 In the end, it's really that simple.

Foiled Al Qa'ida Plot

US Government sources are confirming reports that US/allied Intelligence services have foiled a terrorist plot form-similar to that of the Abdulmutallab attack. While (at the time of this post) the story is still breaking, I believe there are a number of early observations that can be drawn.

1) If the plot did originate from Al Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and out of Yemen, then there is further clear evidence to suggest that AQAP is now, at least in operational terms, the pre-eminent Al Qa'ida franchise. US intelligence/DoD are already dedicating substantial resources towards actively engaging AQAP. This latest plot will only heighten those efforts. Yemen is a state that suffers fundamental socio-political instability. Alongside Yemen's growing water crisis and combined with a young, generally poor population, AQAP will find increasingly positive recruiting conditions in human despair. US efforts in Yemen must therefore be focused in a joined kinetic (force application) and non-kinetic (civil development, economic support, political mediation, democracy promotion) strategy to prevent Yemen from becoming a failed state.

2) If the plot did involve another human borne improvised explosive device (suicide bomber), then there is a notable trend developing on the part of AQAP's attack methodology. In addition to Abdulmutallab's attack, in 2009, AQAP, using the brother of Ibrahim al-Asiri (see point 3), attempted to assassinate a Saudi prince via an internal body IED. Because suicide bombers are notoriously difficult to detect, their employment presents a very popular option for terrorist organisations. Regardless, the fact that this latest plot reportedly involved a unusually advanced device using a non-metallic template, presents a further cause for concern. In basic terms, by removing or reducing detectable components of an explosive device, that device becomes far easier to conceal during a search. This development reduces the probability that prevention tools (for example, metal detectors) would be able to identify an attacker. It thus increases the chance of a successful attack.

3) The creativity/sophistication of the plot suggests that AQAP bomb maker, Ibrahim al-Asiri, played an important role in constructing this device. If this is the case, addressing the threat that he poses will become a top US counter-terrorism priority. Capable and resourceful ideological absolutists, like al-Asiri, are the key to successful Al Qa'ida plots. Khalid Sheik Mohammed provides evidence of what can happen when these individuals remain in action.

4) While some will argue that this latest plot is designed to maintain the domestic 'fear narrative' (IE - that the US wants to maintain public fear of terrorist groups in order to continue a hidden, unjustifiable deviant agenda etc.), the truth is that the violent threat posed by groups like AQAP remains real. The US is at war with Al Qa'ida and AQ affiliates. While the Galula approach remains true, irreconcilable actors like those who planned this attack must be confronted.

My related links.

CIA Interrogation Program and the capture of Bin Laden

So.. while it is making little news in DC, it appears that Bush had far more to do with capturing Bin Laden than he has been given credit for. And this whole story is also vintage Pelosi. As a former Director of the CIA National Clandestine Service (the human spy element), Jose Rodriguez isn't another blow hard. He is a former high ranking intelligence officer who was at the very center of CIA operations. His insights are extraordinarily valuable for a true historical accounting of US intelligence operations since 9/11.

McCain slams Obama re-Bin Laden (I disagree with him on Syria statement though)