Friday, April 13, 2012

North Korea missile screw up

From my perspective, the North Korean missile failure tells us 4 things.

1) North Korean missile technology is still poor. The missile broke up very shortly after launch.

2) Iran's ballistic missile technology is also probably weaker than the Iranians present (the North Koreans have been assisting Iran in this area so it would follow that the Iranians may have similar issues). Israel will have been attentive to this North Korean test.

3) Kim Jong Un will want to stage some kind of attention seeking event in the near future. This failure will do damage to the prestige of his new authority. The North Korean leadership are like children, they want attention. In this regard they use international fear of their rationality/aggression to extract concessions like food aid and fuel. The international community should call their bluff and instead show unity in demanding that North Korea engage in meaningful, long term dialogue.

4) Kim Jong Un is not (at this stage) a reformer. In pursuing this test he sacrificed a chance at rapprochement with the US (even in the context of knowing that the chances of success were not great).

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