Flow Chart- Predicting the regional ramifications of a nuclear armed Iran

This chart encapsulates why I believe a serious peace deal (or it fails, the military option) must be pursued in order to resolve the Iranian nuclear crisis. I accept that my graphics skills are limited!

Related writing links. If you prefer flow charts, here's my relevant piece on the Syrian Civil War.

Iran plotting against US

The news that Iran is increasingly willing to conduct violent action against the United States is nothing new. In recent months, plots by Iran or allies of Iran (Hezbollah) have been uncovered in Thailand, the United States and Germany. In varying forms, Iran has conducted numerous attacks on US interests since the Islamic revolution in 1979. Iranian supported actions have included the following notable attacks-

Marine Barracks Bombing - Beirut, Lebanon

Karbala Council Meeting - Karbala, Iraq (Iran engaged in substantial support for shia insurgent groups during the US period of operations in Iraq post 2003)

Khobar Towers Barracks- Khobar, Saudi Arabia

Because the United States has failed to mount any considerable response to these attacks including the Saudi-Israel Washington DC plot, the Iranian Government believes that it can 'role the dice' when it comes to prospective operations. From an American national security perspective, this dynamic is increasingly precarious; especially in light of increasing tensions vis-a-vis Iran's nuclear program. The Obama Administration should clearly state that any attack on United States interests by Iran or with the support of Iran, will be met with a robust American retaliatory response.

Republicans and 'democracy' in the Middle East

This has been annoying me for a while now. 

Republicans cannot condition support for democracy in the middle east on the basis of our personal affinity for particular ideologies. If the party is to stand for democracy in Iraq, it must also accept the need for Palestinian democracy, Egyptian democracy and democracy in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. Without honest, genuine support for democracy across the Middle East, Republicans have a total lack of credibility to argue that america's foreign policy is centred around promotion of freedom. In this hypocrisy, Republican candidates serve to provide politically astute adversaries like HAMAS, Hezbollah and the Sadrists, with talking points to suggest that the US only supports those with whom it agrees. In an inescapable sense, this feeds traditional extremist narratives hostile to US interests..

IE -  the argument - 'Don't trust or work with the Americans or their agents, because they have no interest in your welfare but instead only care about pursuing a blindly, pro-Israel agenda'. This narrative serves to unfairly deligitimise the nature of America's regional actions and relationships.

Aside from the diplomatic damage caused, such wilful contradiction between words and reality, ultimately undermines the cause of freedom itself (to which america's extremist opponents in the middle east are ultimately ideologically averse). Supporting democracy does not mean that we should automatically agree with other democracies, but it does mean that we accept the notion that popular power is at its basic but ever developing level, a good thing.

The central point here is that if republicans still believe in democracy as a moderating force (the underlying premise of the Bush ideology that Republicans have overwhelmingly supported since 9/11), then in favour of an ultimately more just, peaceful and stable middle east, republicans must be willing to accept that in the short term, while democracy may not always produce results that we would like, it is crucial to stand in support of freedom.

Tom Rogan Thinks..

1) How Disney ever thought that this would work is beyond me.

2) If Sarah Palin runs for President it will be unfortunate.


3) Wisconsin Republicans should pass the bill again. To do so would be good Republican politics- honest decisive action in support of basic party ideals. Republican values are not served by running around screaming like the Bachmann brigade.


4) Gen. Dempsey would be a great choice as the new Chairman of the Joint Chiefs. I especially enjoyed his quote about AC-130s a few years ago while fighting al-Sadr in Iraq..