Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Israeli air strikes, gun debate, US economic news, drones in Africa,

1) The Israelis are increasingly uncomfortable with the evolving security situation in Syria. As the Syrian regime disintegrates, the risks of political instability escalate. For Israel, the primary concern (as evidenced by last night's IDF air strike) resides in the possibility of the Lebanese Hizballah accessing Assad's chemical weapons. Such a development would fundamentally challenge Israel's security/security posture. As I argued for the Huffington Post before Christmas, if Assad employs his chemical weapons, President Obama must order decisive US Military action. On a side note, with each passing day it becomes increasingly clear that the Syrian rebels will accept no outcome other than Assad's removal from power.

2) The Senate is currently hearing from various advocates on both sides of the increasingly polarised gun control debate. The left is trying to shred the second amendment and LaPierre, the PR nightmare to end all PR nightmares, retains false comfort in his self-created realm of delusion. Personally, I think that Congress should focus on improved background checks, better enforcement of existing laws and increased mental health information sharing.

3) The economy didn't have a great final quarter in 2012. The left are complaining that the cause for this retrenchment was spending cuts and that future cuts must therefore be avoided. In making this argument, they are obsessing over the short term. While in truth spending cuts will probably cause short term economic harm, without such cuts America will continue on a path towards the fiscal abyss. This would be a disaster. Ultimately, until we see comprehensive debt reform (cue medicare), economic growth will be suffocated by consumer/business doubt over the future.

4) The US Government is quietly improving its ISTAR/strike capability for operations against Islamist militants in West Africa. Because of the size and population sparsity that defines much of that region, drone platforms provide a crucial asset for on-going counter-terrorism efforts.
Enjoyed this. Earlier today, George Galloway was shut down by PM Cameron.

2 comments:

  1. The left are complaining that the cause for this retrenchment was spending cuts and that future cuts must therefore be avoided. In making this argument, they are obsessing over the short term.

    Noooo, not Austerity! It's a self defeating process on all counts. Not only does it hurt the economy in the short run, but it also prevents countries from achieving their goals of deficit and debt reduction. What many people don't understand is that fiscal austerity impacts negatively on the business cycle. These affects not only have affects on the real economy, but the damage can be seen by looking at final budget outcomes. When the economy is weak, tax revenues fall and welfare payments rise. Weakening an economy through austerity measures will only serve to decrease tax revenues and thus increase government deficits.

    I also think you understate the effects of austerity in this sentence, While in truth spending cuts will probably cause short term economic harm. Let's take a look at European countries that have tried austerity, for example Ireland. Unemployment has grown from 4.6% im 2007 to 14.2% in June 2011 as a result of Ireland's austerity measures. Private savings rates have increased from 1.6% of disposable income in 2007 to 14.6% in 2010. This is the paradox of thrift in action. When everyone tries to save more money during a recession, aggregate demand falls. This in turn decreases consumption, hurts economic growth, and lowers total savings of the population. Ireland's GDP data of the past 5 years confirms this observation.

    I got the data from this paper if you are curious.

    http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1929545


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    1. Sorry! There is a good reason why... I have a Week piece coming out on the same issue.

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