Of Drones and Men - Rand Paul Filibuster

Senator Rand Paul has strong legs. 12 hours of Filibuster and counting. Senator Paul's concern? The Obama Administration's unwillingness to provide him with clarification over the use of UCAVs (Unmanned Aerial Combat Vehicles) on American soil. I respect Rand Paul's passion. He's taking a stand (quite literally) for a cause that is obviously crucial - there are very few issues as important as the civil liberty of the American people. He's also helping the GOP move to a more intellectual position on national security- a realm of complexity demanding of independent thought. And while I'm personally not terribly concerned that the US Government will be unleashing Hellfires on American civilians any time soon, I'm also cognizant of the need to draw scrutiny to the President's aggressive Executive. The President must understand that democracy does not equal blind acquiescence to his will.

On the flip side, I also have a few concerns here.

First, the FOREIGN deployment of UCAVs provides a critical tool for US counter-terrorism efforts. In the absence of boots on the ground (which nowadays has a distinctly weak political constituency) and in the context of a strategic environment in which our foreign partners do not want an overt US footprint in their territory, UCAVs are a major asset. They enable the United States to identify, monitor and defeat our foreign adversaries. They have allowed us to impose devastating physical and psychological losses on Al Qa'ida and its affiliates. In this regard, we should make distinction between using drones abroad and using them at home.

Second, I genuinely believe that John Brennan would make a strong DCI. He's intelligent, well respected by international intelligence agencies and has an extremely strong resume. For a start, Brennan is fluent in Arabic, an expert on the Middle East and is a former Riyadh station chief. He knows how to fight Al Qa'ida. Yes, he's not perfect. His backtracking on the CIA's interrogation program reeks of supplication to Congressional Democrats- who are desperate to ignore history. But the truth is that the CIA has much important work to do. Whether in facing down AQAP, or restraining AQIM, or continuing to exert pressure on terrorists in Pakistan, or providing accurate assessments on China and Russia, or in addressing the multitude of other concerns that we face, the CIA desperately needs strong leadership and a respected voice in the White House. Compared to Hagel at DoD, Brennan is a good choice.

Finally, I worry about how the White House will try to slander Paul and by association the GOP. If they're able to paint Paul's filibuster as an example of unrepentant GOP intransigence, then the Republican position re-the 2014 midterms will be weakened. Such a portrayal would be unfair - thus far, Obama has lacked a serious willingness to compromise. Sadly however, politics is just as much about perception as it is about reality. To avoid this spin from the White House, GOP Senators must engage Democrats to get behind Paul.
 

In the end, my position is pretty basic. I hope the President will answer Senator Paul's concerns. But I also hope that Paul recognizes the need for a functioning, well lead Central Intelligence Agency. If the President is willing to get his act together, then over the next four years, America can achieve much around the world. That opportunity is positive. But we also need to recognize the negative - America faces serious threats. Those dangers must be confronted and each day we're absent a CIA Director, our task is made more difficult. President Obama has the ball, he should meet Senator Paul's reasonable requests and then Paul should end his filibuster.

Hugo Chavez dead

Contrary to the puerile idiocy of the European liberal intelligentsia, Hugo Chavez was an archetypal ass hole. He ruined his country's economy and without Venezuela's oil bounty to bail him out, his rule would have been an unmitigated disaster. He presided over Venezuela's decline into warlike levels of criminality and murder. He denied freedom to those who dared question the orthodoxy of his rule. He supported tyrants and terrorists. Chavez aka the poached egg also reveled in conspiracy theories that were so absurd, they could only have been the product of mental illness. I don't take pleasure from his death, but I certainly won't miss him.

Hugo Chavez, a terrible clown.

Kajaki Dam stupidity

First, please see my Guardian piece on Afghanistan. It outlines my core approach to the conflict.

USAID (the US Government's foreign development agency) has decided to remove US funding and end major support for the completion of the Kajaki Dam in Afghanistan. This action represents strategic insanity and a betrayal of the men and women (American, British and Afghan) who have given their lives in defense of this crucial initiative. Why am I so angry? Because the dam offers the prospect of bringing electricity to an area of Afghanistan (Helmand) that has long been a hotbed for insurgent activity. And by providing the literal fuel for economic-social development, the dam could achieve a major, sustainable success on the part of ISAF and the Afghan Government. A physical tool to suck support away from the Taliban and help lay the foundation for a more hopeful, peaceful future in Afghanistan's south. However, by terminating US support, US AID will probably end up killing the project. The Afghan Government simply doesn't have the capability and drive to get it done. Lead by Karzai (aka Mr. Moron) and without US leadership, the dam will probably end up being stripped in a corruption feeding frenzy.

From my perspective, this decision represents yet another example of the Obama Administration's policy failure in Afghanistan. An approach that's been defined by the pursuit of a narrow domestic political agenda in preference to the demands of national security. It makes no sense. And it isn't just me saying this, it's also the distinguished scholar, Vali Nasr.

Be under no illusions, as much as some would wish it to be so, the War on Terror will not end with Afghanistan. And Muslims will suffer rather than benefit from our rush to the exit.

All the President's ''friends''

Hilarious hypocrisy.

In defense of lawful secrecy

In defense of lawful secrecy. My latest piece for The Week.

Sequester - Doomsday?

The Sequester is in effect and the sky hasn't fallen. Once again, the President's rhetoric flies in open conflict with reality. Both amusing and sad.

Latest Iran Talks? A Disaster.

The P5+1 has finished its latest meetings with Iran. The topic? Iran's nuclear program. Unfortunately, instead of emphasizing that the biting sanctions regime will increase until Iran agrees to verifiable inspections, western negotiators chose to do the opposite. They've made a grave mistake. By offering Iran's leadership with rewards for their continued non-compliance, Iran's strategic brinkmanship is being vindicated. Further problematic is the fact that Iran's leaders have won further time to develop their nuclear ambitions. As I noted last week, Iran has played their negotiation game since 2003. They've become extremely adept at it. Sadly, many in the West are deluding themselves by arguing that these concessions offer a peaceful resolution to the crisis. On the contrary however, this weakness (see an EU spokesman ruling out military action) only pushes Israel towards tougher action. Israel believes that they can attack Iran without starting a major war (I'm inclined to agree with this judgement) and every time that the P5+1 diplomatic track takes a detour (as it has this week) Israeli military action becomes more likely rather than less. 

From my perspective, there's a simple strategic truth at stake here. Until the international community is willing to force Iran to the table - by tightening the sanctions regime even further, Iran's leaders will continue to play the waiting game. And ultimately the theocrats will achieve their nuclear ambitions. An outcome that would be disastrous.

On a related note, my thoughts on Hezbollah in Europe.

Photo- Atlantic Council

The Leadership Sequester of President Obama

I try to give the President a fair hearing. I hate the bitterness that has come to define so much of our national discourse. I'm repulsed when the President's wife and daughters are insulted. But... as I've argued in recent weeks, since winning re-election, the President has found comfort in unmitigated partisanship. And now, as the Sequester approaches, the President's behavior has reached unprecedented summits of absurdity. Due to the GOP refusal to submit to his theory of governance (my way or the highway) and reluctant to fulfill the sequester deal that he himself developed, the President has instead resorted to using the national security of the United States as a partisan prop. As Bob Woodward noted on MSNBC yesterday, the President's decision to cancel a carrier deployment to the Persian Gulf is nothing short of astonishing. I've always felt that the President's foreign policy is confused and contradictory, but this is simply unbelievable. Sadly, the President hasn't stopped with his Carrier games. Instead, he's also overseen the release of hundreds of detained illegal immigrants. Counter to the Administration's claims of ignorance with regards to this release, because of its major political tenor, the action must have received approval from someone in the President's inner circle.

Let's be clear, these actions are not born of a national leadership focused on the common good. Nor are these decisions derived of necessity- with a budget in the hundreds of billions, the DoD could easily allocate sufficient funds to send a second Carrier to the 5th Fleet Area of Operations. As could DHS with regards to meeting its criminal detention responsibilities. Unfortunately, these national priorities have been subjugated to the President's ego. We're witnessing a leadership that is both gleefully reckless and stunningly arrogant. An imperial White House happy to threaten journalists and make policy in the style of North Korea.

Why is the President behaving this way? Why won't he accept the Sequester? 

Because he refuses to accept a major debt deal (which would necessarily involve major entitlement reform). And because he wants an American welfare state. A welfare state doomed to fail.

I'm not feeling so hot about the next four years...

Foreign Policy

In case you missed them, a few of my foreign policy posts from the last couple of weeks.

Iran Negotiations in Kazakhstan

Why Muslims must confront Islamic Extremism

North Korea's second nuclear test 

The EU's Hizballah Delusion

And from late January, my thoughts on a range of foreign policy issues.

Update - A piece from November that's newly relevant re-Lord Rennard - Problems with UK Free Speech law

What American conservatives can learn from our foreign counterparts

What American conservatives can learn from their foreign counterparts. My latest piece for The Week.