Friday, February 22, 2013

Iran Negotiations

The French have been leaking reports of a new offer that the P5+1 will be making to Iran next week. The intention of this offer? To get Iran to give up their pursuit of highly enriched nuclear power.  

Clearly, we all want peace. However, from my perspective, this open willingness to entertain further negotiations with Iran (without first seeing Iranian trust building measures) is a mistake. Since 2003, the Iranian negotiation dynamic has been an annual occurrence (see my post from this time last year!) with a unchanging outcome - while Iran gains time to continue its nuclear development, the West gains nothing. Indeed, simultaneous with this latest outreach, the Iranians are once again showing their fundamental disinterest in the prospect of a nuclear conciliation arrangement. By installing new centrifuges, the theocrats are speeding their way along the path to a nuclear weapons capacity. And be under no illusions, Iran's nuclear pursuit is not a preference born of casual consideration. The regime believes that if it achieves a place in the nuclear club, it will thus also ensure the survival of the Islamic revolution (their ultimate political objective). Absent major pressure, Iran will not negotiate their agenda away. While various parties have argued that a nuclear Iran should be addressed by deterrent containment, for me, such a prospect is deeply concerning.

So, what do these latest developments mean? Well... I suspect that Israel will speed up plans for the use of force against Iran's nuclear program. Although the consequences of such an action would likely be serious both regionally (and in economic terms) also internationally, the probability of a spiral to regional war is low. In the end, it's a question of Netanyahu's mindset. Personally, I don't believe that the Israeli PM is willing to quietly accept a nuclear Iran.

On a related note, my thoughts on Hezbollah in Europe. 

No comments:

Post a Comment