New Daily Caller Piece

Check out my latest Daily Caller piece - In the Middle East, fears over the future are driving violence in the present

UPDATE 11/14 Sadly, today's news shows that my analysis appears to be correct. Below is the text of my Daily Caller piece.

Tensions are escalating in the Middle East. Faced with a regional dynamic in which systemic political change beckons, state and non-state actors alike are increasingly resorting to the use of force to defend and assert their foundations of power.

Because of the complexity of Middle Eastern politics, it’s best to examine each actor in turn.

Iran. In recent weeks, Iran has dramatically increased its assertiveness in the region. Just before the U.S. presidential election, Iran attempted to shoot down a U.S. surveillance drone that was flying over international waters. In legal terms, this was an act of war. So, what’s behind Iran’s actions? The answer is pretty simple: It’s the economy, stupid. Western sanctions are exerting extreme pressure on the Iranian economy and, as a result, Iran’s government is facing growing popular unrest. Iran’s leaders feel that they need to alter the status quo. So Iran is trying to force the international community back to the negotiating table. Threatening conflict also tends to drive up oil prices and improve Iranian government balance sheets. Because I don’t believe that Iran will be willing to give up its nuclear program, I expect the sanctions to continue and Iran to continue lashing out.

Syria. In the past few weeks, Bashar al-Assad has shown an increased willingness to test the patience of neighboring countries, especially Turkey and Israel. This is deliberate. With its foreign capital reserves running dry, the Syrian regime is running out of time to defeat the rebels. Assad needs a Hail Mary. By threatening neighboring states, Assad does two things. First, he discourages those states from supporting the rebels. Second, he sends a message to the West that he will not give up power without a fight — and that his fall would have major repercussions.

Hezbollah. Because Hezbollah is both an overt political party and a covert terrorist group, analyzing its activities is difficult. However, Hezbollah seems to be pursuing a more hardline strategy now than it has in the past. For instance, the group recently flew a drone over Israel, and it appears to have played a role in the recent assassination of a senior Lebanese intelligence officer in Beirut. I think there are two reasons for this. First, Hezbollah is trying to act as a counterweight to Western pressure on Assad — essentially, Hezbollah is seeking to support Assad by threatening violent regional instability unless the West backs down from its efforts against him. Second, along with Hamas (see below), Hezbollah is attempting to reinforce Iran’s threats.

Hamas. Over the last few days, Hamas has been indirectly attacking Israel with rocket strikes from the Gaza Strip (Hamas claims that Islamic Jihad is responsible for these attacks, but Hamas controls Gaza). Again, why? I believe that Hamas is attempting to push Israel into an over-reaction that would distract the region from Assad and Hezbollah, while also providing moral support to Iran’s increasingly aggressive strategy. Hamas may also be trying to consolidate its political support in Gaza.

Israel. Israel is faced with a multitude of increasingly hostile enemies. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to deter those enemies by projecting strength. Netanyahu’s aggressive stance may also be motivated by domestic political considerations.

Because the stakes in contemporary Middle Eastern politics are so high, actors are desperate to shape the evolving political environment in their favor. This is driving them to pursue increasingly risky courses of action.

New Guardian Piece

Check out my latest Guardian piece - The Republican Party needs a coalition beyond its core

Successors at DoD, State and CIA

The Washington Post is suggesting that Susan Rice, the current US Ambassador to the UN, will be President Obama's next Secretary of State (Clinton wants to retire). The Post is also reporting that Senator John Kerry is being actively considered to replace Leon Panetta as Defense Secretary (Panetta wants to go home to California). Both Clinton and Panetta have been impressive Secretaries who require worthy successors. 

These reports concern me a little.

First the Secretary of State. Susan Rice is evidently very bright. But her record at the UN has been far from stellar. Assad remains entrenched in power, China and Russia continue to prevent truly effective sanctions against both Assad and Iran. In addition, Rice's comments on Benghazi were poorly conceived and misled the American people (though I do not believe these comments were made with malicious intent). While many foreign policy powers are beyond the reach of an Ambassador, I lack confidence in Rice's record. Secretary of State Clinton's replacement must be an individual who possesses a strong reputation. I am not convinced that Ambassador Rice sufficiently meets that criteria. If I were the President (and IF I held Obama's foreign policy views), the top candidates on my list for State would be John Kerry, Colin Powell, Bill Clinton and Dick Lugar. All four of these individuals are extremely well informed on international relations and US foreign policy. All four would devote their focus to the major responsibilities of the office (they wouldn't get sucked up into the beltway bs flow).

With regards to the Secretary of Defense, I do not believe that John Kerry would make a good choice. Unlike with foreign policy, Kerry lacks a substantive background in defense issues and from my perspective would be far stronger interacting with diplomats than with generals. If I were the President (and IF I shared Obama's defense policy) I would have three names on my list. Colin Powell, Andrew Exum, John Nagl. Ignoring the fact that Exum would probably make the youngest SecDef in history, all three candidates would bring the drive, experience and intellectual understanding needed to effectively manage the US drawdown in Afghanistan and re-shape the US Military for the post Afghanistan-Iraq war environment.

On the CIA Director position, the President should short list John Brennan, Mike Morell (to go permanent), Dianne Feinstein and Cofer Black.

 

Petraeus - A great American

Like his Iraq counter-insurgent ally, Ryan Crocker, David Petraeus is facing some personal challenges. No one is perfect, but in terms of national dedication and distinguished service, few Americans come anywhere close to these two men. Navigating extraordinary political challenges abroad and domestic war weariness at home, they brought Iraq back from the brink and helped move Afghanistan towards a surer course. Back in May, I wrote an op/ed on their exceptional public service.

Their Iraq record speaks for itself

Iran and the Debt Negotiations

I am now in DC. Two stories are absorbing my interest at the moment.

1) Iran's attack on a US reconnaissance drone that was flying in international air space. 

 This incident doesn't surprise me. In fact, after the Beirut bombing a couple of weeks ago, I argued that in pursuit of weakening the international alliance opposing them, Iran, Hizballah and Syria were attempting to export violence and instability into regional political dynamics. Faced with crippling international sanctions in response to their nuclear program, Iran's economy is now in free fall. Inflation is exceptionally high, and Iran's oil export industry (the lifeblood of the economy) is struggling with unprecedented sanctions. Again, from my perspective Iran's latest action is unsurprising. I have consistently argued (see my guardian piece) that Iran responds to increasing sanction pressure with increasing aggression. The Iranians believe that Western fear of a war will lead to a collapse of the anti-Iranian alliance. Accepting this Iranian strategic understanding, the United States must respond carefully but robustly. While there should be no military response to this latest incident, the President should order USAF/USN fighter escorts for further drone flights over the next few weeks. If Iran attempts another attack, the President should order the US Military to take responsive defensive action.  

From a legal perspective, this attack was an act of war. However, it was one of many such acts that Iran has engaged against the US in recent years.

2) The looming debt negotiations. House Speaker, John Boehner, has signaled a willingness to re-engage serious debt negotiations with the President. This is a positive step. However, it will be important to see whether the president is serious about offering major reforms to Medicare (the core debt driver). The President must be honest and open in his dealings with Republicans. Sadly, this was not the case the last time debt negotiations took place.

Election Debate

My pre-election debate on BBC News, November 5th. I have to admit that my predictions were a little off.

Election Thoughts

Congratulations to the President and his campaign team. They fought a hard contest and implemented another extraordinary get out the vote effort.

Counter to my predictions as to what would happen, this was a major victory for the President. The swing states fell in his favor with relative ease.  Why did he win? I think in large part, Obama's victory stemmed from a general voter conclusion in the last week or two that the economy had finally turned a corner. In addition, clowns like Akin and Mourdoch did immeasurable damage to the Republican brand over the course of the campaign. These 'morons' (as I described them on BBC News a couple of days ago), lost two Senate races in which sane GOP candidates would have been firm favorites. In Mourdoch's case, not only is the Senate seat lost, but a great Republican statesman, Dick Lugar, has been lost as well. 

What does the Republican Party need to do now? First, we need to focus on the debt negotiations. House Republicans must protect the military from what would be catastrophic spending cuts. Second, we need to ensure that the party brand is not polluted by Akinesque individuals. We need to stand for freedom. The American people need to understand we are the party of freedom. Third, we need a hard headed but realistic approach towards our interactions with the President. Where real compromise is in the interest of the country - we must pursue that compromise. However, this willingness to negotiate MUST be a reciprocal arrangement. We need to see an evolution in the President's willingness to engage in serious negotiations. Failure to reach a negotiating reality will mean continued deadlock.

The six reasons why America will remain great

Today sees the end of what has been a tough and at times even vicious presidential campaign. With such serious issues at stake, it's understandable that much emotion is invested in this contest and its outcome. But we must be honest with ourselves. While today's election will determine our national leadership for the next four years, whoever wins, America will remain a great nation worthy our patriotism.

There are six nationally defining characteristics that explain why.

The first is Confidence. While the economic downturn has depressed short term optimism about the future, our enduring national confidence remains the envy of the world. Our affinity for confidence is one of our finest national traits. True, sometimes our optimism has more roots in fiction than in fact, but there is nothing bad in this. At worst, dreams are harmless fantasies, but at best, they are bold markers which encourage us (at times quite literally) to reach for the stars. Our confidence gives us the sustaining belief that our unending, challenging but rewarding journey of improvement and advancement is one worth taking.

The second is Commitment. Whether our commitment to the rule of law, to the ideals of freedom, or to each other, America is defined by commitment. American workers are among the most productive in the World. American athletes train and compete with incredible focus. American military personnel are the most relentless in the world. Americans don't like to give half-way effort or leave a task half complete.

The third is Community. Visitors to America are always struck by our national, state and local love of community. Whether in the national patriotism of flying a flag, or the simple act of supporting a school sports match, 'community' is central to our American identity. Our communities are the product of shared beliefs, shared interests and our shared respect for one another. In physical essence, Community is the physical expression of our national motto- 'E Pluribus Unum' 'Out of many, One'.

The fourth is Courage. Since the founding fathers rose to freedom by challenging the world's greatest empire, Americans have been defined by our courage. Since 9/11 we have seen abundant evidence that our national courage remains undiminished. From Todd Beamer to Mike Murphy and from Chesley Sullenberger to Wesley Autrey, American courage is alive and well. The reach of our courage extends not just to America, but also, as we see in Afghanistan today, to the acts of our citizens abroad.

The fifth is Creativity. Whether splitting the atom or developing the internet, inventing the plane or finding the cure for Polio, the Constitution or giving the world Elvis, in the short years of our young nation, America has lead the charge of human creativity. Across science, medicine, technology and culture, we drive forwards paying no heed to any obstacle except the limit of our own imaginations. This is a spirit with a motto - 'No limit on ideas, no lid on possibilities'.

The sixth is Compassion. Whether saving lives around the world after natural disasters, protecting Iraqis and Afghans from violent extremists or leading global efforts to train and improve the professionalism of foreign security forces, every day, the US Military provides a clear and undeniable expression of American compassion. Joined with USAID, American taxpayers provide critical support to strangers in great need. But these examples don't even begin to tell the whole story of American compassion. Taking into account private action, Americans are the most charitable of all the citizens of the world. The simple fact - both at the level of continents and individuals, Americans have been, are and always will be defined by our compassion. The combination of our unparalleled strength and our unequaled compassion makes our country an incredible force for good.

Sure, tonight is important. But we always need to always remember that ultimately, America's greatness finds its infinite source in the character of our decent and honorable people. Whatever happens tonight, this won't change.

Presidential Election Prediction

UPDATE (11/09) -  Not too great on this one. Pretty abysmal in fact. Lesson- 1) Don't listen to GOP operatives who speak against major sustained polling analysis.

Against all the odds (and perhaps some clamors of bias) I am predicting that Romney will win the Presidential Election by an electoral college margin of 295 - 243. I believe that his route to victory will be found via wins in the swing states of Colorado, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia.

Here's how he wins. 

First- the 'swing' states that I believe are now 'safe' for each candidate. It is my opinion that the traditional conservative support which exists in Florida and North Carolina will place those states firmly in Romney's bracket. Conversely, I also now believe that Wisconsin, Iowa and Michigan will go for Obama. The union presence and traditional Democratic affiliation of many voters in those three states will be a great boost for the Obama vote. 

Having banked the electoral college gold mine of Florida (29 EC VOTES), victory in the following swing states will enable Romney's victory.

COLORADO (9 EC VOTES) - Romney has closed Obama's lead in Colorado. Obama will be unable to replicate his 2008 voting success among younger voters, while Romney will attract greater support from independents and from a considerable Republican base which is far more energized than in 2008. Colorado will be close, but I believe it will fall into Romney's bracket come election day.

OHIO (18 EC VOTES) - By most estimates, Romney has closed the poll margins to within the margin of error. Winning Ohio will require a number of actions to fall in Romney's favor. First, Romney must be able to mobilize significant proportions of his base to get out to the polling booths. Based on the energy with which Republican leaning voters are now engaged in the election,  I believe this will occur. Today's New York Times has a good piece on both campaigns voter outreach efforts in Ohio. Second, Obama will need to see a depressed turn out of polled likely voters who currently say they will support him. I also expect that this will occur. Come election day, reduced enthusiasm for Obama will mean that a small but significant minority of his leaning supporters do not turn out to vote. Third, as yet undecided voters (who are a small minority of the likely voting total) must break heavily in Romney's favor. Again, I believe (and historic 'late undecided' trends suggest) that Romney will be able to persuade these voters to enter his name.

         To become reality, Romney's victory in Ohio will therefore center on three key actions- his campaign's ability to 'get out the vote', the Obama campaign's inability to motivate a comparative level of enthusiasm and the influence of undecided voters breaking in Romney's corner and turning up at the polling stations to reflect their decided opinion.

PENNSYLVANIA (20 EC VOTES) - For me, has become the most exciting state in the run up to election day. As recent polls have broken towards an increasingly pro-Romney trend, the Romney campaign has made Pennsylvania a major target. Interestingly, one of the most recent Pennsylvania polls has put the race at 47%-47%. The Romney campaign evidently made an error in not engaging a major focus on Pennsylvania before October. Regardless, now that the polls have tightened and the Romney campaign is expending resources in the state, I believe that Romney can pull out a shock win. Romney's victory in Pennsylvania will require that rural, conservative leaning voters turn out in significant proportions. In addition, Romney must undercut Obama's 2008 lead in urban/suburban areas. Ultimately however, I believe that Pennsylvania will go for Romney for the same reasons behind my suggestion of a Romney Ohio victory. Put simply, between likely voters and the few undecideds still in the race, I believe that Romney will be able to attract more voters than Obama. From research and from having spoken to people on the ground in Pennsylvania, I firmly believe that the Romney campaign has a statistically significant advantage over the Obama campaign in terms of voter enthusiasm. For me, enthusiasm is the crucial, always understated element of electoral success. Being a likely voter is NOT the same as turning up at a polling station.

VIRGINIA (13 EC VOTES) - As with the other swing states, Romney has closed the gap on Obama since the debates. The polls in Virginia remain very close - some show Romney leading, some Obama and some even. Ultimately, as with the other states, 'getting out the vote' will be critical for Romney if he is to win. Romney will need to generate high turnout in the traditionally more conservative southern areas of Virginia. In addition, Romney will have to undercut Obama's lead in Washington DC suburbs like Fairfax, Alexandria and Arlington. Again, I believe that undecided voters will break in Romney's favor and that the enthusiasm of the Republican base will propel Romney to victory.

CONCLUSION - The above predictions are definitely bold. However, I believe that Romney can and will achieve an upset victory on Tuesday night. The enthusiasm of the Republican base exceeds that of the Democratic base. And enthusiasm gets voters to the polling station. Romney now has comfortable metrics in terms of likability, leadership and ideas. These strengths will place him in a good position to take advantage of undecided voters who get to the voting stations. Obama will be unable to rely upon the base of support he received from young Americans in 2008. He will also attract far less independent voters. Taken together, these dynamics matter. Voting wins elections, participating in a phone poll does not. And... as Harry showed us in 1948, it's not over until its over.

Job Numbers - Election Economics

The news that 171,000 new jobs were added to the economy in October is positive. However, the economic recovery remains fragile and in the pursuit of a robust recovery - 171,000 is an insufficient number. As election day approaches, these numbers only form a final backdrop to the broader economic debate at stake. I have made clear on numerous occasions why I believe that Romney would provide the best economic leadership for our country. However, in terms of the record of this President, I believe the statistics also speak with irrefutable clarity. Overall employment remains lower than when the President entered office, over $6 trillion in new debt has been added to the backs of young Americans like myslef, the tax code remains a mess, economic growth remains sputtering and uncertainty about the future rules the marketplace. And yet, the President has no plan besides his intellectually vacuous call for higher taxes on the 'rich', fake debt reduction plans and even more spending. 

On Tuesday, I hope change comes to America.