A very bad night for the GOP

Tonight was a very bad night for the Republican Party. In failing to support Speaker Boehner's plan to avoid tax raises for 99.8% of Americans, far-right Republicans have handed President Obama a huge victory. They have empowered the President politically - allowing him to paint Republicans as intransigent ideologues servient only to the rich. And they have betrayed their obligation to their country. The obligation to put national interest before all else. And when we are facing a debt crisis, the national interest is important. 

What happens next? I suspect that the chances for a debt resolution before Christmas have evaporated. Speaker Boehner knows that he cannot agree to a deal that fails to address trend cost inflation in Medicare/Medicaid (As I have previously argued such a deal would be worthless) and President Obama now believes that he holds all the cards (the GOP still controls the House so at least on paper, the President is wrong). Common ground has become far more sparse. Unfortunately, because of this evening's antics, the public attitude towards the GOP will be extremely negative. Conservatives have dug ourselves into a hole. The President will appear as the great conciliator who has been frustrated by Republican intransigence. I do not believe that the President has negotiated fairly, but truth will be less important than perception.

This is my plan for resolving the debt crisis.

Iran and the Debt Negotiations

I am now in DC. Two stories are absorbing my interest at the moment.

1) Iran's attack on a US reconnaissance drone that was flying in international air space. 

 This incident doesn't surprise me. In fact, after the Beirut bombing a couple of weeks ago, I argued that in pursuit of weakening the international alliance opposing them, Iran, Hizballah and Syria were attempting to export violence and instability into regional political dynamics. Faced with crippling international sanctions in response to their nuclear program, Iran's economy is now in free fall. Inflation is exceptionally high, and Iran's oil export industry (the lifeblood of the economy) is struggling with unprecedented sanctions. Again, from my perspective Iran's latest action is unsurprising. I have consistently argued (see my guardian piece) that Iran responds to increasing sanction pressure with increasing aggression. The Iranians believe that Western fear of a war will lead to a collapse of the anti-Iranian alliance. Accepting this Iranian strategic understanding, the United States must respond carefully but robustly. While there should be no military response to this latest incident, the President should order USAF/USN fighter escorts for further drone flights over the next few weeks. If Iran attempts another attack, the President should order the US Military to take responsive defensive action.  

From a legal perspective, this attack was an act of war. However, it was one of many such acts that Iran has engaged against the US in recent years.

2) The looming debt negotiations. House Speaker, John Boehner, has signaled a willingness to re-engage serious debt negotiations with the President. This is a positive step. However, it will be important to see whether the president is serious about offering major reforms to Medicare (the core debt driver). The President must be honest and open in his dealings with Republicans. Sadly, this was not the case the last time debt negotiations took place.

John Boehner

John Boehner is a great Speaker of the House. He grew up in a poor family and worked extremely hard to earn his success. He is a patriot, he is willing to make common sense compromises for the good of the country (even if the President is not) and he is an exceptionally strong fundraiser! I cannot understand those Republicans who think that Boehner is a RINO. In fact, he is an intellectual conservative who follows in the best traditions of the party. We are lucky to have him.