Tripoli/Baraawe - Special Forces methodology

First, please see my post from Saturday (I've updated with new information). 

Reports suggest that the US Army's ACE (aka Delta Force) was involved in the Tripoli operation to seize al-Liby. This news shouldn't surprise anyone. After all, we already know that the FBI/CIA were involved in the capture. In that vein, Delta's involvement would have afforded an extra contingency capability had al-Liby/allies resisted the strike team. As this video illustrates, direct action orientated special forces (like Delta) focus on overpowering their adversaries with speed and overwhelming force. The key to their tactical methodology is to psychologically and physically dominate a target in a manner that denies the opportunity for effective resistance.

That being said...

The SEAL raid against the Baraawe compound illustrates an equally important counterpoint - even Tier One SMUs have their limits. In terms of the Baraawe assault, once the SEALs presence became known, the odds quickly shifted against them. In short, they were outmanned and outgunned in hostile territory. At that point, they were forced to withdraw under fire. 

Taken together, the Tripoli/Baraawe operations speak to two fundamental truths. 

First, that a small group of highly trained individuals can achieve a major strategic effect (whether removing one senior Al Qa'ida leader from the battlefield - or eviscerating an enemy network*). Second, that special forces are neither superhuman nor bullet proof. In the end, the employment of these forces requires a situationally weighted calculation of risk v reward and a policymaker understanding that Von Moltke's law continues to abide- "No plan of operations extends with certainty beyond the first encounter with the enemy.''

*  1) If you prefer a video explanation... click here. 2) I'm very astute to growing insecurity in Iraq.

Please see related links.

Zawahiri and AQ Core's evolving strategy

The leader of Al Qa'ida, Ayman al-Zawahiri, has released another audiotape.

Much of the recording follows Zawahiri's traditional form - calling for resistance to western civilization, ridiculing American culture, claiming AQ/affiliates have driven the US out of the Middle East etc.

Still, there are two interesting elements to this latest message.

First, when Zawahiri calls for attacks ''by one brother or a few of the brothers [followers of AQ ideology]", he's speaking to an evolving attack strategy on the part of AQ core. Astute to western capabilities in the field of communications intelligence (specifically signal intercepts), for a number of years now, AQ has sought to reduce its electronic footprint. Indeed, this renewed focus on improved operational security is further evidenced by Zawahiri's decision to release an audio rather than video tape (video tapes obviously providing more analytic utility to US Intelligence). Ultimately, Zawahiri is aware that every time his operatives communicate across the internet etc. they run the risk of detection. Combined with the fact that US Intelligence/allied services adopt a range of other actions to identify and disrupt AQ agents, the group has been forced to embrace a diversified attack strategy. By inspiring acts of violence (note his praise of the Boston bombers), Zawahiri hopes to hurt the United States without jeopardizing his assets (if interested, see my thoughts on the Tsarnaevs). 

          Nevertheless, in contrast to the former FBI agent who speaks in the video below, I believe that it would be a serious mistake to underestimate AQ Core's desire and capacity to employ their own operatives where possible. The apparent operational synergy between the suspects in Operation Pathway and the Zazi plotters, illustrates that AQ Core remains active beyond simple influence messaging.

Second interest element- Zawahiri's statement: “I warn my brothers in Syria against any compromise with those factions. They have to learn the lesson of Egypt... [Zawahiri then condemns Morsi for maintaining the peace treaty with Israel].” From my perspective, Zawahiri is pursuing two objectives with this message. 

            First, he's encouraging affiliates like ISIS to continue their campaign of destruction in the region (see point 2 here). Zawahiri believes that political instability and escalating sectarian tensions will provide a foundation for AQ's broader empowerment.* 

              Second, regarding his condemnation of Morsi, I suspect that Zawahiri is attempting to create fissures in the Muslim Brotherhood - seeking to attract disaffected MB supporters towards AQ linked extremism. A few weeks back, I expressed my concern that the Egyptian Army's crackdown would spark a 'Salafist Spring' (see point 5 here). Zawahiri might be a fanatic, but as he proved in his dealings with al-Zarqawi, he's also a semi-astute political actor - he senses an opportunity in the chaos.

* - AQ's obsession with violence says much about the group's organizing identity. They are extremist totalitarians - individuals who pursue catastrophic violence as their primary mechanism of action.

My other relevant writings.

Foiled Al Qa'ida Plot

US Government sources are confirming reports that US/allied Intelligence services have foiled a terrorist plot form-similar to that of the Abdulmutallab attack. While (at the time of this post) the story is still breaking, I believe there are a number of early observations that can be drawn.

1) If the plot did originate from Al Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and out of Yemen, then there is further clear evidence to suggest that AQAP is now, at least in operational terms, the pre-eminent Al Qa'ida franchise. US intelligence/DoD are already dedicating substantial resources towards actively engaging AQAP. This latest plot will only heighten those efforts. Yemen is a state that suffers fundamental socio-political instability. Alongside Yemen's growing water crisis and combined with a young, generally poor population, AQAP will find increasingly positive recruiting conditions in human despair. US efforts in Yemen must therefore be focused in a joined kinetic (force application) and non-kinetic (civil development, economic support, political mediation, democracy promotion) strategy to prevent Yemen from becoming a failed state.

2) If the plot did involve another human borne improvised explosive device (suicide bomber), then there is a notable trend developing on the part of AQAP's attack methodology. In addition to Abdulmutallab's attack, in 2009, AQAP, using the brother of Ibrahim al-Asiri (see point 3), attempted to assassinate a Saudi prince via an internal body IED. Because suicide bombers are notoriously difficult to detect, their employment presents a very popular option for terrorist organisations. Regardless, the fact that this latest plot reportedly involved a unusually advanced device using a non-metallic template, presents a further cause for concern. In basic terms, by removing or reducing detectable components of an explosive device, that device becomes far easier to conceal during a search. This development reduces the probability that prevention tools (for example, metal detectors) would be able to identify an attacker. It thus increases the chance of a successful attack.

3) The creativity/sophistication of the plot suggests that AQAP bomb maker, Ibrahim al-Asiri, played an important role in constructing this device. If this is the case, addressing the threat that he poses will become a top US counter-terrorism priority. Capable and resourceful ideological absolutists, like al-Asiri, are the key to successful Al Qa'ida plots. Khalid Sheik Mohammed provides evidence of what can happen when these individuals remain in action.

4) While some will argue that this latest plot is designed to maintain the domestic 'fear narrative' (IE - that the US wants to maintain public fear of terrorist groups in order to continue a hidden, unjustifiable deviant agenda etc.), the truth is that the violent threat posed by groups like AQAP remains real. The US is at war with Al Qa'ida and AQ affiliates. While the Galula approach remains true, irreconcilable actors like those who planned this attack must be confronted.

My related links.