Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Why Israel WILL bomb Iran

Netanyahu does not believe that in the context of the American election (for fear of raising US domestic gas prices) that Obama will be willing to increase sanctions against Iran to the degree the Israelis believe is necessary. Therefore, from the Israeli perspective, the international diplomatic pressure that would be necessary to force Iran's leadership to abandon their decision to pursue nuclear technology will not be forthcoming. If one believes that the Israeli standpoint is that a nuclear Iran is intolerable, then the military option is the only option left.

While the military complexities inherent in the action of any Israeli strike would be profound, for Israel, these complexities pale into insignificance when compared alongside the perceived alternative of a nuclear Iran. For Israel, preventing Iran from attaining nuclear power is a necessity that supersedes all other priorities (including the relationship with the US). If Israel's best military outcome would be to delay Iran's nuclear program by 2 years, the Israelis will accept this outcome on the understanding that they may have to repeat air strikes at some future point. Israel likely believes that it can carry out a successful action against Iran by initiating a high intensity, short duration operation. This will require some explicit or implicit over flight rights. Unless Israel decides to cross Iraq (which has no effective air defense network).

1 comment:

  1. Israel has 80-100 nukes. Is a nuclear Israel tolerable? Oh, you might say that Iran is a greater threat to peace than Israel, yet you predict Israel will attack Iran. Iran may feel justified in deterring a military attack with nukes. Isn't the value of a nuke deterrence and not its use? Why else would the US have thousands of nukes? To use them all?