Guantanamo Bay Soccer Field

Fox News is running a story about the Defense Department's decision to build a soccer field in the detention facility at Guantanamo Bay. The article suggests that this is an extraordinary waste of money and an unwarranted reward to undeserving terrorists. I disagree. 

The money, $750,000, is nothing in terms of the overall DOD budget - which is over $600 billion/year. At the same time, setting up this soccer field has major potential benefits. First, by reducing US-inmate security escort time (as the news report comments) it reduces the risk of Guantanamo inmates using force against our security garrison. 

Second, it offers the chance for better morale in the camp (which serves US interests by making inmates more amenable to co-operation with US authorities on other issues). 

Third, observing the social interactions of the detainees while they play will allow US intelligence officers to identify social hierarchy/interaction dynamics and then use this information for intelligence purposes. 

Fourth, the soccer field is good PR for the US. While I agree that the camp should stay open, the negative PR connotations that surround Guantanamo in the eyes of many in the muslim world, are unquestionably damaging to US interests. This negative PR undercuts our true (albeit imperfect) narrative of standing for democracy and empowerment in the 'war on terror' and helps feed the propaganda/support base of groups like Al Qa'ida. As David Galula would suggest, the 'war on terror' is 80% an ideas war. This soccer field is a small price for the prospect of real American strategic gains.

Putin Assassination Plot

If reports are to be believed, the disruption of the Putin assassination plot appears mainly to be the result of good luck (the suspects inadvertently set off an explosion in their apartment and in so attracted the attention of Ukrainian authorities*). That the suspects were in possession of video footage concerning Putin's movements will be a cause for concern on the part of the Russian Presidential Security Service (counter-surveillance is a major part of any effective protective effort). Duko Umarov, the Chechen terrorist who the Russians have accused of being responsible for the plot, is a dangerous, highly committed individual linked to recent, medium casualty attacks on Russian transport infrastructure. The Russians will now be even more aggressive in their hunt for him.

*An important point worth noting re-the terrorists failure to maintain operational security (IE - remain undetected until they could attempt to carry out their attack) is that many other terrorist plots fail for the same reason/operational incompetence. The capture of Ramzi Yousef who was planning a 9/11 scale attack, the May 2005 Bush assassination attempt, the failure of the July 21st 2005 London Underground bombers and the 2007 London bomb plot, all provide examples of this dynamic. In each of these cases, major attacks that would have had major consequences, failed because of a corollary failure on the part of the attacker/s. 

In Counter-Terrorism, luck is important.

Christopher Tappin Extradition

Christopher Tappin's extradition to the US is appropriate. According to the US case, in 2006, Tappin attempted to sell export restricted MIM-23 Hawk missile batteries to Iran. Unknown to him however, he was dealing with undercover US agents. The problem with the arguments of those who state that he should not be extradited are two-fold.


First, the accusation against Mr. Tappin is extremely serious and has been found to meet the reasonable suspicion evidential burden that is imposed on extradition requests by the English courts. The MIM-23 system is the foundational basis for Iran's newest air defense system. In this regard, if Iran is able to acquire technology to support their air defenses, then this technology contributes to the endangerment of American (or British) pilots who may one day be called to militarily contest air space with those systems. We have a responsibility to deny potential adversaries the access to military tools that they could use against us.


Second, just because Mr. Tappin and Mr. McKinnon have well developed PR strategies to win British public support, it doesn't mean that they should be able to escape justice if they are guilty. Gary McKinnon is accused of taking down the Washington DC military computer network for an entire day. If the US had suffered a terrorist attack or major disaster on that day, American citizens could have died as a result of the problems that this communications failure caused. Extradition serves the cause of justice.


Although there are some who claim that the current US-UK extradition treaty is unfair, they are wrong. Between Jan 2004 and July 2011, 7 extradition requests by the US to the UK were rejected. In the same time period, the US rejected no UK extradition requests. These are the facts and justice is built on facts and not emotion. Mr. Tappin is innocent until proven guilty, he will have his day in court.

Iraq Attacks

Today's attacks in Iraq are very likely to be the work of Al Qa'ida in Iraq. The multiple actions included strikes against diners in restaurants, a school and a mosque. This is the nature of Sunni Salafist extremists - extraordinarily aggressive application of force in pursuit of a total war doctrinal strategy.* A strategy that in AQI's case, is rooted in the pursuit of the destruction of the Iraqi state via the propagation of genocidal levels of sectarian violence. The intention of today's attacks is thus to spark sectarian warfare among different communities of the Iraqi people (Shia areas were targeted), much like with AQI's intention in conducting the 2006 attack on the Golden Mosque. The current sectarian dysfunction in the Iraqi Govt is seen by AQI as an opportunity ripe for exploitation. Clearly also, it is important to note that the (post- Coalition withdrawal) absence of large scale counter-terrorism capabilities from the US/UK has allowed AQI space to re-constitute to a position where in they can effectively carry out large scale attacks such as today's. (US/UK counter-terrorist forces waged a highly effective attritional campaign against AQI during 2007/08/09 that effectively destroyed the group's senior and middle leadership).




Another point to note here is that the proximate position of Iraq to Syria/Iran means that instability in Iraq has profound consequences for the rest of the region. Amidst the ongoing Iranian nuclear crisis/Syrian uprising, reducing tensions in Iraq must be a priority for the US govt. Joe Biden has done some pretty good work on this recently. At the same time, Obama should ensure that the CIA station in Iraq has the support it needs (especially from the NSA) to be able to provide actionable intelligence to Iraqi security forces.


*- The current leader of AQI, Abu Dua, is true heir to Zarqawi.


According to one US intelligence officer speaking in 2005, Dua 


"held religious courts to try local citizens charged with supporting the Iraqi government and coalition forces. He would kidnap individuals or entire families, accuse them, pronounce sentence and then publicly execute them."


 People like Dua are a reflection of the irreconcilable element of a terrorist organisation. 


These individuals can only be dealt with through capture/kill operations.

Iran Talks Fail (shocker..)

As I predicted, the nuclear talks in Iran were a complete waste of time. Iran is adopting strategy on the basis of the hesitancy of the west to deal robustly with their nuclear program. Ultimately, Israel will attack.

Koran burning reports

If this 'burning' was in fact authorised, it was an act of extraordinary strategic incompetence. The damage that reports like this one do to America's credibility in Afghanistan is substantial. We want to persuade people about the truth of our good intentions. Reports of acts like this serve only to provide propaganda to the Taliban. 


However, the Afghan people must look in the mirror more often. It is high time that the uproar that has typified the reaction to this incident be also reflected towards acts like this and this. Morality must be consistent. We should not be afraid to speak out about this hypocrisy, especially when we ask our military families to put their loved ones on the line.

Understanding Israeli strategic calculations re-Iran's nuclear program

The New York Times is carrying a piece today that outlines the complexities that will be inherent in any prospective Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. Clearly, it is absolutely true that any attack would be exceptionally difficult. However...... The problem with a lot of the analysis surrounding this Israel-Iran issue is that it often fails to  consider the encompassing, strategic conception that exists on the part of Israel. For Israel, consideration of a strike against Iran's nuclear facilities is not just rooted in analysis of the potential risks of that act and its aftermath (IE - failing to substantially weaken the Iranian program and potential Iranian retaliation). Instead, alongside these factors, Israeli considerations are consumed with the perceived threat that a nuclear Iran will pose if it arises. Israel regards a nuclear Iran as a precursor to a second Holocaust. An existential threat that will be unconstrained, undeterred and unleashed in its encouragement for proxies like HAMAS, Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad. It is in this sense that for Israel, whatever the perceived risks of acting against Iran, the risks of not acting are perceived to be higher. It is for this reason that even if the liklehood of an Israeli strike succeeding is low, Israel will still act.

+ The Saudi Sunni Monarchy is especially concerned by the prospect of a nuclear Iran. The Saudis may grant 'closed eyes' overflight rights to Israel.

Iran offer to negotiate (BS)

Anyone who thinks that this has any utility is being moronic. Iran is attempting to buy time to break the back of the western alliance against their nuclear program. The Iranians are gambling that the absence of an appetite to confront Iran and the current economic climate means that internal fractures in the alliance can be expanded and manipulated. They have been playing the same game since 2003. Totally absurd that people can't see it. The problem with EU/US support for these negotiations is that they ignore the fact that Israeli patience is rapidly evaporating. They thus increase rather than decrease the liklehood that Israel will feel that diplomacy is exhausted and in turn, risk forcing Israel into a position in which the use of military force is seen as the only remaining option.

Iran upping the ante

Iran upping the ante.. 


As I predicted

Paul Ryan continued

Follow up of last post - Ryan grilling White House budget.