Monday, February 27, 2012

Putin Assassination Plot

If reports are to be believed, the disruption of the Putin assassination plot appears mainly to be the result of good luck (the suspects inadvertently set off an explosion in their apartment and in so attracted the attention of Ukrainian authorities*). That the suspects were in possession of video footage concerning Putin's movements will be a cause for concern on the part of the Russian Presidential Security Service (counter-surveillance is a major part of any effective protective effort). Duko Umarov, the Chechen terrorist who the Russians have accused of being responsible for the plot, is a dangerous, highly committed individual linked to recent, medium casualty attacks on Russian transport infrastructure. The Russians will now be even more aggressive in their hunt for him.

*An important point worth noting re-the terrorists failure to maintain operational security (IE - remain undetected until they could attempt to carry out their attack) is that many other terrorist plots fail for the same reason/operational incompetence. The capture of Ramzi Yousef who was planning a 9/11 scale attack, the May 2005 Bush assassination attempt, the failure of the July 21st 2005 London Underground bombers and the 2007 London bomb plot, all provide examples of this dynamic. In each of these cases, major attacks that would have had major consequences, failed because of a corollary failure on the part of the attacker/s. 

In Counter-Terrorism, luck is important.

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