Afghanistan Shooting

This could not have come at a worst time for the US effort in Afghanistan. In the aftermath of the recent Koran protests, tensions are high. Actions like the latest serve only to escalate tensions even further and deeper into US-Afghan relationship. Sadly, aside from training NCOs to spot and report the signs of serious mental instability, there is little that can be done to prevent things like this from happening. Every day across Afghanistan thousands of American, British and other ISAF soldiers put their lives on the line to try and build a better, safer future for the people of Afghanistan. This is moral and heroic work. But.. as with any act like this latest one, this sacrifice will now have less credibility in the eyes of Afghans. 


This incident will have real strategic consequences as well as more obvious human consequences.

Rush Limbaugh Defamation Lawsuit?

Rush Limbaugh's comments towards Sandra Fluke were stupid. However, Gloria Allred's argument that he should face a defamation suit for those words is even more stupid. Whatever one thinks of Limbaugh's speech, when Fluke entered the political debate surrounding Obama's contraception coverage requirement, she also entered the political domain as a public figure (at least for this particular issue). Limbaugh was expressing political opinion (the type of speech that receives the highest level of constitutional protection). Allred knows that Limbaugh's speech is protected, she just wants to attract attention to herself. Another bs celebrity lawyer.

Failed Rescue - Nigeria

In relation to the British hostage rescue operation in Nigeria...

The SBS are one of the finest special forces units in the world. Successful rescue operations require luck just as much as intelligence support, logistics and skill. Sometimes luck isn't on side. Sometimes it is. Regardless, hostage rescue operations are inherently risky.

Syria Intervention

The exchanges in the Senate today draw attention the debate surrounding the possibility of open western military intervention in Syria. As I have previously argued, such an operation would be risky and complex AND would draw assets away from other critical national security objectives - such as in Afghanistan. 

The following quote from the above linked article is particularly note worthy:

'But Dempsey [Chairman of Joint Chiefs] said that the attacks necessary to destroy Syrian air defenses would be long, complicated and risky because Syria has air defenses that five times more sophisticated than those attacked by the NATO-led coalition in Libya last year.

“It would take an extended period of time and a great number of aircraft,” Dempsey said. Because most Syrian air defenses are located in the heavily-populated eastern part of the country, where most of the violence against opposition strongholds is taking place, civilian casualties and other collateral damage would be high, he said.'

If Europe wants to engage in foreign military interventions then European states must spend more on their militaries. Especially with regards to building their power projection capabilities. It is intolerable to me that the United States receives European scorn for our military spending most of the time and then.. during situations like that currently ongoing in Syria, receives scorn for being unwilling to risk our pilots, our assets and our money in an operational environment that is far closer to Europe. In Libya, European states took most of the credit and yet, most of the ammunition, logistics and intelligence targeting material was American produce. European responsibilities for international security cannot begin and end with screams for intervention and token deployments of force. These responsibilities and commitments must be real and shared.

Why Israel WILL bomb Iran

Netanyahu does not believe that in the context of the American election (for fear of raising US domestic gas prices) that Obama will be willing to increase sanctions against Iran to the degree the Israelis believe is necessary. Therefore, from the Israeli perspective, the international diplomatic pressure that would be necessary to force Iran's leadership to abandon their decision to pursue nuclear technology will not be forthcoming. If one believes that the Israeli standpoint is that a nuclear Iran is intolerable, then the military option is the only option left.

While the military complexities inherent in the action of any Israeli strike would be profound, for Israel, these complexities pale into insignificance when compared alongside the perceived alternative of a nuclear Iran. For Israel, preventing Iran from attaining nuclear power is a necessity that supersedes all other priorities (including the relationship with the US). If Israel's best military outcome would be to delay Iran's nuclear program by 2 years, the Israelis will accept this outcome on the understanding that they may have to repeat air strikes at some future point. Israel likely believes that it can carry out a successful action against Iran by initiating a high intensity, short duration operation. This will require some explicit or implicit over flight rights. Unless Israel decides to cross Iraq (which has no effective air defense network).

Romney Wins Big

With his wins last night, Mitt Romney successfully consolidated his position as the confident front runner for the Republican presidential nomination. Gingrich is finished - he only won Georgia. Santorum's three wins were all in v. conservative states. Santorum cannot appeal to moderates and as last night's results show, he is limited in terms of his appeal to Republicans. Mitt Romney now needs to begin to wage an adapted campaign that is specifically targeted at centrist Republicans and independents, rather than at conservative primary voters. The especially aggressive nature of this primary season has damaged Romney's general election appeal but is still absolutely reversible. Romney's campaign needs to focus on two big issues - economic plans and debt reforms. His proposals should be more realistic and bold. Promising massive increases in DOD spending and limited cost saving reforms to medicare are not realistic in an environment in which we have to cut/raise revenue at $5 trillion from projected 10 year spending (and continue those cuts into the future).

Super Tuesday

Romney needs to lock this up. Santorum is an intelligent, passionate man who cares deeply about 'value' issues. But.... Santorum fails to connect with voters who have core concerns that go beyond gay marriage, abortion and condoms. We NEED to nominate a candidate who can challenge the President on the economy, on foreign policy and on the debt. Santorum's views alienate far too many people where as Romney's views (especially with his willingness to think outside the Republican box - his MA health care program for example, offer a real chance to bring people together. Romney is the only option we have. An imperfect candidate for sure, but a candidate who can beat Obama and carry out sensible, intellectual (non-palin), bi-partisan reforms.


For UK readers - I will be going on BBC News at around 2.30-2.45PM to talk about STuesday. Watch! For US readers - you (might) be able to find this online via BBC World Service or something. It would be at 0930 EST.


Also - great piece on the Red Sox. (Kev- the Yankees are going down)

Why politics matters

During the course of each Presidential campaign there are moments that depart from the usual spin and stupidity of campaigning. These moments remind us why elections are important and why we are lucky to be citizens of a country that invests ultimate power in the people.

One of these moments happened yesterday.

BP Settlement

At $7.8 billion, the BP settlement is obviously large. However, it is important to note that the Deepwater Horizon oil spill was a catastrophe for the Gulf Coast area. The size of this settlement was always going to be huge. Corporate responsibility is a contingent element of any high risk operation and to put it bluntly, BP screwed up. I agree that tort damages in the US are often too high but in this case, in the context of the damage that was done, the number seems about right.

Apache attack in Iraq

This is a video of an Apache taking out IED Emplacement team in Iraq. Notice how long it takes for the authorisation to come in. Three to four minutes could have lead to these guys escaping but reflects the need to be cautious to avoid civilian casualties. A need that is born of both moral and strategic calculations.