Romney Video

Mother Jones have hit the jackpot for left wing spin. Case in point - the absurd haze atmospherics that they have edited into their video. Suddenly, a standard fundraising event becomes a gathering of evil. 

         But let's consider the facts. What Romney said was largely true. The highest earning top 10% of taxpayers are responsible for over 70% of Federal Government tax revenue. AND as Romney pointed out, 49.5% Americans pay NO federal tax. 49.5%. Indeed, when tax related credits/grants are taken into consideration many of these individuals actually make money from the Federal Government. It is in this sense that there are many voters who have no interest in the Republican agenda. This is not a shocker - there is little personal interest in voting for a party that wants to end the free rider train. Why vote against Obama when he will give you everything for nothing.

Of course, there are broader issues at stake here. One of the big debates in this campaign concerns the question of the Federal  Government. IE - What the Federal Government should do and what it should not do. We Republicans do not believe that the Federal Government should exist as a replicant of EU style social welfare models. For us, a balanced but real appreciation for Personal responsibility is critical. For example, I accept the need for Government led reforms to our health care system that (unlike Obamacare's cost inflationary health reforms) will bring down costs and expand coverage. But, I do not believe that the Government should provide a cradle to grave system of state management over individual lives. Instead, I believe that personal responsibility and its inherent corollary- personal opportunity are critical elements of a dynamic American society and of the high living standards that Americans enjoy.

       Another issue. The federal budget is out of control. Federal spending has increased dramatically over the last 50 years. If the President is re-elected the spending curve will probably continue on the road to bankruptcy. Re- Romney's comments - There is a major problem when a large element of the population gains generous benefits without holding an effective personal stake in the broader budget game. In essence, these individuals feed the President's spending ambitions because they believe that they will have nothing to sacrifice as a result. Resolving America's debt crisis will require tough, honest debate. Unfortunately, the President has zero interest* in such a discussion. This largely explains why left wing outlets like Mother Jones are trying to paint Romney as a Ferengi. Obama has no plan and no ideas, so spin and scare tactics are the left's only option. This President's slogan should be 'Change which takes effort to believe in'.

As a final point, because they cannot face the truth of his words, Romney is attracting Democratic screams that his latest comments should end his campaign. I have a question for those Democrats. Where were their screams when in 2008, Obama attacked the personal values of 'small town America' while casually labelling these citizens as racists?

* - The $4 trillion 'savings' are the same that Obama referred to in his DNC acceptance speech. He is being dishonest.

Note- The Heritage Foundation charts linked above are both built upon IRS data. They do not represent Republican spin.

Election Observations in Florida

I am currently in South West Florida. I will be returning to the UK this weekend. While in the sunshine state I have been attempting to get a feel for ground level voter leanings concerning this year's Presidential election. There is clearly a close split between likely voters. However, I have been able to make a number of conclusions. 

1) Republicans are far more energized than Democrats. The Republicans that I have met are almost unanimous in their profound dislike for the President's policies. Contrary to press spin, the majority of this opposition is focussed on a fundamental distaste for the President's economic approach and not on his personality (although he is not popular in this regard). The energy that this opposition holds in terms of prospective support for Republican candidates (at the national and state levels) is considerable. In contrast to Republican leaning voters, many Democrats are less energetic in their contrasting support for the President. They feel that his economic record is weak and they regard him as having failed to live up to expectations. Not surprising when the President promised biblical level change.

2) Romney-Ryan need to do a better job of explaining their Medicare reforms. A good deal of older voters are concerned that these reforms will deny them medical care. This is largely the result of Democratic ad campaigns that unapologetically lie about the Romney/Ryan position on this issue (The Democratic Party has no plan so just relies on lies). To counter Democratic attacks, the Republican ticket simply needs to repeatedly say this. 

3) Far too few voters are attentive to Afghanistan as an issue. Iran has come up in a few of my conversations, but it disappoints me that most Americans seem to have forgotten about the fight our military (along with our coalition allies) are currently involved in. Supporting our troops means more than waving a flag and a yellow ribbon, it requires an attention to our military operations.

4) By Democrats and Republicans alike, the President is seen as offering few new proposals. In this sense, support for the President by moderate Democrats and independents is largely rooted in their discomfort with the more extreme portions of Republican Party policy. I firmly believe that Romney-Ryan have little interest in issues like gay marriage, abortion and pornography (and will largely ignore GOP religious fundamentalists). However, negative perceptions of the GOP on these issues are undoubtedly damaging the party's ability to reach out to new voters. I always come back to this polling data. Around 40% of Americans are conservative, 35% moderate and only 21% liberal. On these results, the GOP should be landsliding every election. Unfortunately, candidates like Santorum drive many voters away. I am confident that over time as the next generation of Republican leaders begin to run for office, we will be able to attract more of these voters. My generation cares very little for intervention in the private lives of our fellow citizens.

Rebutting the left wing spin on Ryan's Speech

Jonathan Cohn's TNR hit piece on Ryan was mostly devoid of factual value. Here's why.

1) Wrong. The plant was still open until April 2009. Obama said that he would help it stay that way. He didn't.

2) Some truth. True that Romney-Ryan counts the cuts, but the cuts are effectively irrelevant to Romney-Ryan because their plan is to completely overhaul the medicare system anyway. A plan so horrendous, it was co-authored by a a liberal democratic Senator. Indeed, unlike the President, Ryan has always said that he is willing to negotiate on this issue as part of a grand compromise. 

I find these quotes absurd -  

"By the way, Obamacare's cut to Medicare was a reduction in what the plan pays hospitals and insurance companies. And the hospitals said they could live with those cuts, because Obamacare was simultaneously giving more people health insurance, alleviating the financial burden of charity care.

What Obamacare did not do is take away benefits. On the contrary, it added benefits, by offering free preventative care and new prescription drug coverage. By repealing Obamacare, Romney and Ryan would take away those benefits—and, by the way, add to Medicare's financial troubles because the program would be back to paying hospitals and insurers the higher rates."

Let's see what doctors decide to do when the opportunity cost of treating Medicare patients becomes even more excessive. And where is Obama going to find the money for his new 'added benefits'? As with his Medicare proposals (and his budget - see end of 5), he is going to imagine it into existence.

3) Republicans must share some blame for this. I have argued the same. But... In the end, it was Obama who failed to engage in genuine negotiations with House Speaker Boehner about how to resolve the debt crisis. Boehner was willing to stand up to the huge power of the tea party in pursuit of a deal. In contrast, Obama went back on his word so as to please left-wing Democrats in Congress.

4) Somewhat fair. But those lines are on an escalating track through the next ten years. In addition, they assume that Obama wants to cancel all the Bush era tax cuts (which he doesn't). And... it hilariously asserts that Obama has no responsibility for the continuing economic troubles. And... it claims that Obama has no responsibility for Iraq/Afghanistan even though he has direct control over both theaters. 

5) This is an ideological issue. Republicans believe that the Federal Government should have less role in social service program provision. IE - If New Yorkers want to pay more taxes for more programs, then that is their prerogative. If Mississippians want to pay less taxes for less programs, again, that is their prerogative. Block granting allows states to find cost savings at the local level, rather than having the blind hand of the Federal Govt. throwing money into a dark, bottomless abyss.  Just look at the cost growth of the Federal disability support program as an example of this issue. The poorest Americans are the ones who have the most to lose if we continue on the debt course. Such a situation risks Medicare's very existence.  The real issue here is addressing the health care cost growth which is absorbing low/middle income real wages (neither Obama nor Congressional Republicans are yet offering substantive plans to address health care inflation) (though I believe Ryan will want to press this concern onto a Romney Presidential agenda). Cohn seems to think (like many Democrats including the President) that we have an ample supply of money. We have no money. We have to make tough choices rather than tough attack ads. Oh and on tax reform, Ryan's plan (endorsed by Romney) would eliminate loopholes so as to prevent the rich from being able to reduce their tax bills through heavy avoidance. Obama would simply reinforce the thousands and thousands of pages of our tax code mess. Obama's approach to America's fiscal situation is a dream. And a nightmare for America. 

Obama's Budget

The President's budget is a joke. It counts savings from Iraq and Afghanistan.. it fails to make any substantial reforms to medicare/medicaid (obviously the political loss of raising the entitlement age was not worth the good it would do for the country) and it uses a class warfare narrative to raise taxes on the wealthy without instituting tax reform. At least the restrooms in the Republican caucus will be well stocked with paper. That's all this bill is good for..

Tom Rogan Thinks..

1) Obama is speaking to the UK Parliament today. I hope he says that as part of a balanced relationship the US cannot be expected to subsidize European security.

2) The election of the Democrat in New York shows two things. 1) The tea party cannot win everywhere. The voters who went with the tea party candidate should consider the political value of their vote. 2) The Republicans need to do a much better job articulating the crisis facing Medicare. It should be the main Republican talking point at every stump speech to state that even with top rate tax increases the budget gap cannot begin to be resolved.

3) The Libya operation was always going to be complicated. The niavete of people who excitedly called for war was stunning. The Europeans must spend more on defence.

4) Obama has some good options for the next chairman of the joint chiefs. I think Ray Odierno would be the best pick. He has born the personal and professional burden of war.

5) Finally.. to all those who said that Obama is being anti-Israeli, read this poll.

6) The French Open is wide open. I still think Nadal will win. He sometimes takes a while to warm into the tournament.

Blog - First Day

This is my blog. Each day I will put down my thoughts concerning political issues (and sports) that are in (and sometimes are not in) the news. I am a Republican but I have an open mind.

Tom Rogan Thinks..

1) The ongoing Pakistan-US situation vis-a-vis Bin Laden is ridiculous. The No. 1 Pakistani Intelligence Service - ISI, is riddled with Taliban sympathizers and more than likely helped protect Bin Laden from our intelligence efforts. For the ISI, India is the key. They see the Taliban and other regional idiots like Lashkar e Taiba  as  a counter-weight against Indian power and influence. The US is just a source of money.

2) This http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-13341058 is fantastic news. Freedom of speech is already diminished in the EU (something I wrote about for The Guardian http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2011/mar/04/freedom-of-speech-us-constitution-and-civil-liberties), but had Mosley won today then things would have rapidly become a lot worse. Requiring journalists to inform the subject of their story before publishing would have allowed public figures to seek pre-emptive injuctions to prevent the story ever reaching us. Freedom of speech requires robust defences for speech so that journalists can bring light to power. Today's ECHR ruling keeps freedom of speech alive (albeit weakened) in Europe. Regardless, the ongoing twitter- super injunction saga shows the true absurdity of current defamation laws in the UK - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/twitter/8504051/Super-injunctions-David-Cameron-blames-Parliament.html


3) Boehner's focus on entitlement reform is admirable. http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0511/54628.html While Republicans should be open to more substantial cuts to defense spending (there is no question that this can be done without harming our core capabilities), the fact that Democrats don't seem interested in reforming Medicare (the core driver for future debt growth) is a serious problem for their intellectual credibility. If we want to avoid a collapse in the bond markets and an ensuing economic disaster, the debt limit must be raised and substantial long term spending cuts/reforms enacted. I will publish more on my deficit/debt control ideas tomorrow.


4) Nice work from Crawford http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=310509102


5) On the Ancelotti debate at Chelsea FC http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/13343882.stm  - I think he should be allowed to stay. Ancelotti has an impressive managerial record and has presided over a remarkable turnaround in Chelsea's recent fortunes (Man Utd game aside). Abramovich keeps ripping the gears and then gets confused when the team doesn't work properly? Chelsea need consistency and another key play maker who can support their offensive efforts.