The Democrats are presenting Romney-Ryan with a huge electoral opportunity. With even greater glee than normal, the Democratic Party is currently engaged in a full scale effort to protect the avarice of big unions. In Chicago, after a week of ignoring the children of that city, the teachers strike continues. Continuing, even though Mayor 'Rahmbo' aka Mayor Dumbo is offering to shower the union with more money. In Wisconsin, after previously attempting to sabotage democracy in order to stop Gov. Walker's union law from taking effect, then trying to end Walker's term early, the Democrats are now relying on absurd petitions to the courts. In New York, the Democrat-Union alliance has proudly prevented poor New Yorkers from taking advantage of cheaper food and household goods (the store, its jobs and cheap prices will now go to Christie's New Jersey). As if these actions weren't enough, the Democratic campaign platform goes even further - declaring total, unrepentant support for the big union agenda. An agenda that rests on intimidation, theft and the restriction of free speech.
GOP candidates across America should take notice. Alongside their support for the job killing union agenda, the Democrats broader economic position is equally vulnerable. The economy remains weak and Obama's economic record (and economic strategy) are devoid of value. Americans do not like the kind of left-wing special interests fetishism currently being practised by the Democrats. They understand that these policies destroy jobs, weaken the economy and add seemingly endless amounts of debt to the federal accounts. There is now a clear path for Romney to take the electoral fight to the President. Romney must wage a campaign with absolute focus on the economy (and Obama's foreign policy weakness).
The latest ABC News-Washington Post polling data shows a closer race (likely voters are the key) than Nate Silver had suggested. To be honest, I am surprised that Romney is not 1-2 points ahead of the President after last week's terrible jobless numbers - I expect this is for the reasons I mention below. The polls will fluctuate as the next few weeks pass by. The really important data will start coming in after the Presidential debates. However, there is some useful information below the surface of this latest poll.
First, the poll shows a deep dissatisfaction with Obama's handling of the economy. 53% of voters oppose of his handling of the economy. The majority of these voters believe that the issue is rooted in the President's policy failings, rather than in his purported need for more time to remedy the situation. In addition, a statistically relevant ten point majority of voters (43%-32%) believe that the economy has become worst since the President took office. There is a division between voters who blame the President for the bad economy and those who do not. Mitt Romney also holds an advantage in terms of being viewed as someone who understands small business needs. Interestingly, a clear majority of voters believe that government programs do more to harm small businesses than help them (53%-35%).
Second, the poll shows that most voters do not believe that Mitt Romney has given them enough clarity on what policies he would pursue as President. Further, the President holds significant advantages in terms of his polling on whether he or Romney would do a better job for the middle class or women's issues.
So what do these results mean? First- the election remains close and most certainly winnable by Romney. As I noted earlier this week, Romney must do more to boost his personal appeal numbers. I don't think that this will be too difficult to accomplish, Romney must simply get out on TV more. He needs to do more late night tv interviews (shows that have a comedic edge) and he needs to show the American people his life story - a committed husband and successful businessman. Second, Romney also needs to take much greater advantage of the President's weakness on the economy. The polling data shows that many voters are looking for a reason to abandon the President. Romney must take the fight to Obama. Romney should be aggressive and bold in articulating why the President's economic policy continues to be an abysmal failure and why in specific terms, he (Romney) would do a better job. Romney should also be unafraid to assert the conservative message as to why government is not the solution to America's problems. America is not Europe and attacking government spending will not alienate independent voters. Romney should attack the President for his proposed American Jobs Act (which Obama frequently touts on the campaign trail) by pointing (as I have) to the Chicago teacher's strike, as an example of how Obama serves Union vested interests rather than the interests of the private sector. Specifically, Romney should root this argument in a broader narrative that explains why the President is no friend of the middle class nor of small businesses. This shouldn't be too hard - Obama has showed his own disregard for hard work and business risk takers. Third, Romney must show American women that he is not with the fringe Republican goon squad when it comes to issues that concern them. These fringe morons have been able to shape public perceptions of the GOP on social issues for far too long - Romney must ensure this changes. Romney should openly condemn Republicans like Todd Akin, while asserting that the economy rather than abortion will be the key for his Presidency. If Romney is unable to attract a larger percentage of women voters, he will lose the election. James Boys recently wrote about this important concern.
But again, the key is the economy. Romney should engage with Paul Ryan in a collective attack on Obama's failed economic record. Failure on the economy, failure on the debt. This is not a difficult argument to articulate. With reference to the economy, perhaps Romney should adopt the line-
'Failure only the President believes in'.
GOP ad - Illustrates the message that Romney should relentlessly present
Chicago teachers are currently on strike. They are taking this action even though on average, they make around $76,000 a year + benefits (health care plans etc). This benefits package is the most generous teacher compensation of any major American city. Chicago's mayor, Rahm Emanuel, wants to make mild reforms to Chicago's rotting education system - seeking improved teacher quality control and trying to ensure that bad teachers lose the right to a lifetime job. Except, the union isn't willing to play ball. Instead, they believe that their members are entitled to unaffordable benefits, lack of standards and the absence of any responsibility to teach well. Put simply, the teacher's union doesn't give a $$$$ about Chicago children. Instead, they care about maintaining their never ending ride on the greed train. As if these facts didn't make the situation bad enough, Chicago also faces a severe budgetary crisis. Without any changes, this year's education budget will be around $1 billion in the red. As a 'compromise', Emanuel offered the teachers union an effective 16% rise over 4 years. Yes, you read it right. The teachers are already the best paid of any American city, the education budget is already $1 billion short and the teachers already get 3 months paid holiday each year - but according to Emanuel, a 16% rise is still justifiable. Yet, as absurdly generous as this offer is, the union refuses to accept a deal that requires higher teaching standards. Improved responsibility is something that this particular union will never stand for that. The teacher's union is unapologetic. But they should be. Many of the children they're supposed to be educating already have to deal with terrible crime rates. Now they can't even go to school. For some other thoughts on teacher's unions, read my piece on Philadelphia school unions.
