Illinois Primary

Romney needs to have a good night in Illinois if he wants to put the Republican race to bed soon. If Santorum wins, Santorum will be emboldened to continue towards his ultimate objective - a brokered convention. The Republican party leadership are desperate to avoid this outcome and while it is unlikely, it is not beyond the range of possibility. Romney knows more about economics than Obama but when he criticises the President for 'high' gas prices - he is being unfair and disingenuous. America's national security and future economic security require higher gas taxes.

Obama's Afghanistan policy

Karzai is a corrupt egotist. But.. Romney and McCain are absolutely right to slam the President for his Afghanistan policy. Obama took far too long in deciding to approve McChrystal's counter-insurgency plan back at the end of 2009 and then made the idiotic decision to announce the US withdrawal date from Afghanistan. This has pushed Afghans into a position in which many feel they must 'hedge' their bets when it comes towards supporting the Afghan govt/ISAF counter-insurgency effort versus the Taliban. The Taliban reside on a base of fear. It takes guts to stand with the US when the US has announced an intention to leave. This fear of the fluctuating commitment of the US is a major source of instability at both political levels (Karzai) and ground levels (settlements across Afghanistan). The President has put America in a terrible catch 22. A situation in which America is supposedly committed to securing Afghanistan's long term internal security and at the same time, is perceived as running for the exits. The President needs to alter this perception.

We need to focus on continuing to build security/governance at the local level as well as improving the professionalism of the Afghan national army and police. This will take a few more years and more patience, but we cannot allow Afghanistan to slip back into the hands of the Taliban (a group that contrary to western popular opinion has little credibility for the vast majority of Afghans). 

       We have expended too much blood and treasure to fail to avoid the absolutely avoidable outcome of failure.

Secret Service have a tough job.

This is why you need route security for political VIP motorcades. I am assuming that Obama was not in the motorcade as filmed in the video and that the vehicles were simply being moved to a staging area. However, imagine that he had been in the motorcade and the Chinese had refused to shut down the highway. The guy playing this prank would probably (and justifiably) have been rammed off the road. The job that the Secret Service have to do to balance the needs of protection versus freedom of speech/movement is not at all easy. Whether in domestic or foreign operations, the consequences of a false judgement are potentially catastrophic. Look at this incident with Romney last week.

I wrote a piece for the guardian a while back- arguing that David Cameron was making a mistake in getting rid of his police escort.

Supreme Court- Insurance Mandate

Great piece in the Washington Post on the Supreme Court and Obama's insurance mandate. 


My view- constitutional

Santorum's latest comments show why I could never vote for him.

For those who are newcomers to the blog I am a Republican.

Rick Santorum's latest comments on pornography show why Obama would destroy him in the general election. The key concerns for Americans are - the economy, jobs and rising health care costs. Very few people really care if the guy next door wants to watch porn. In a free society the boundary between the private choices of an adult and the encroaching reach of the government must be strictly defined and from a Republican point of view - strictly limited. As a Republican, I cannot support a candidate who believes that two consenting gay men should not be left in privacy in their own home, or that contraception should be banned, or that (all stage) abortion doctors should face criminal charges. These policy proposals are the product of a mindset that begins and ends with the strict contours of a personal religious interpretation and is rendered absurd by its natural hypocrisy... Santorum opposes the catholic contraception mandate (freedom of religious beliefs*) but supports banning contraception all together (no freedom of individual beliefs). 

In the end, the critical point is that Santorum believes that his views must actively and absolutely trump the perspective of all others, even when the debate concerns the most intimate of issues (sexual conduct) and the most private of areas (the home). Waging this kind of a war on individual freedom is fundamentally incompatible with conservative values of freedom.

* - I oppose Obama's mandatory contraception coverage requirement. My reasoning - Contraception is a personal choice and is cheap to acquire. If made mandatory in health care plans, the mandate would serve to retrench private health care into an increasingly rigid system. An industry with a focus that goes far beyond that of critical health care coverage. It's evidently incompatible with the Catholic faith that their institutions be forced to provide contraception as part of their health care plans. Nothing prevents their employees from private purchases.

Santorum Southern Wins

Rick Santorum's victories in Mississippi and Alabama are not unexpected. Part of the Republican base is still uncomfortable with Mitt Romney and this won't change until the inevitability of Romney's candidacy becomes clear. But Romney's nomination is inevitable. Only Romney can challenge the President effectively on the economy. At the same time, Santorum's social views are way outside of the mainstream - from my perspective his beliefs in this area are incompatible with the traditional libertarian foundation of the Republican Party. There are enough Republicans who may not be fully satisfied with Romney that know that if Santorum were to be the nominee, Obama would landslide the election. Romney will still win this nomination fight.

Release of Guantanamo prisoners?

I hope the reports that the US is about to release a number of senior Taliban officials from Gitmo aren't true. If they are, the Obama Administration is being extraordinarily dumb. Releasing these guys would send a terrible message of weakness to the Taliban. Especially at a time when America needs to show more resolve. We cannot negotiate with the Taliban if they believe that all we care about is getting out of Afghanistan as soon as possible.


This reminds me of when the Administration stated that the US contribution to the removal of Gaddafi did not amount to hostilities. The President's team seem to think that they are always right.

Radio Tomorrow

For UK readers - if interested, I will be on LBC 97.3 tomorrow morning (around 08.45) talking about Cameron trip to US/UK-US extradition treaty.


The upside down flag incident was a breach of diplomatic protocol but not a serious one. Pretty hard to see which way up is the right way! But I'm sure the state department protocol officer will apologise to the British ambassador.

The extradition approval order for Richard O'Dwyer is a good thing.

New Guardian Piece on Gas Prices

New Guardian Piece -

The Republican case for higher gas taxes

Just to clarify one point that I may not have made clear-

re-Iraq My position is not one of actual opposition to the war (I supported it) but opposition to the fact that America's reliance on oil stability made us unwilling to aggressively confront Iranian abuses of the Iraqi people (by Iranian supported groups like the Jaish al-Mahdi) and Iranian attacks on US forces (through weapons like EFP's)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Explosively_formed_penetrator

Afghanistan Withdrawal?

ISAF operations in Afghanistan have made huge advances over the last 18 months. Large areas of Kandahar and Helmand provinces (the heartlands of the insurgency) have been removed from Taliban control and civilian economic/social vitality is returning to these areas. Huge losses have been inflicted on the Taliban's senior/middle leadership and Afghan Security forces are advancing in capability, professionalism and operational reach.


 These successes have come at significant cost- both human and treasure. To abandon Afghanistan now would be a catastrophic error of strategic judgement. The President made a major error in announcing a deadline for the US withdrawal, but we can still achieve some semblance of lasting stability/democracy in Afghanistan if we decide to remain committed to the task. It is morally foul that many who formerly supported the war are now deciding (for US domestic political purposes*) that the effort should be abandoned.


We owe the injured and the dead much more than a skewed strategy born of partisan analysis. 


* - While I disagree with them, I absolutely respect those who argue that the ISAF effort cannot succeed and that as such should be ended. My issue is with those using the conflict as a political pawn.