Tom Rogan Thinks..

1) Guardian piece up - http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2011/jun/23/afghanistan-barack-obama

Tom Rogan Thinks..

1) I have another guardian piece coming out tomorrow.. hence the absence of posts.

2) For a class action lawsuit to be successful there must first be a unified, identifiable class. 'In or out'

3) I wonder how many UK SSNs are on there way to the Falklands. A couple if Cameron has any clue about national security.

Tom Rogan Thinks..

Guardian Piece on Obama/Libya - http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2011/jun/17/obama-libya-war-powers

Tom Rogan Thinks..

Exams over so back to it.

1) The Argentinians are increasing pressure on the UK vis-a-vis the Falkland islands. They know that the UK has gutted its expeditionary force capability and in so has presented a great opportunity to push the issue up the agenda. On the other hand, I would imagine that the Royal Navy has one or two Trafalgar Class subs somewhere around here. It is unlikely that the US (at least under the current administration) would provide much more than covert intelligence support for UK forces during a second Falklands war.

2) Greece has major problems. Obviously. The entrenched special interests in that country (the wealthy who hate paying taxes, unions etc) do not want to give ground and the French and Germans are fighting each other over how best to proceed.

3) Strauss-Kahn was bitching about his cuffs.

4) The Israelis are getting ready for another show down with a Gaza flotilla that will sail this month. The flotillas are a nightmare for Israel. The Israelis cannot allow the ships to reach Gaza (to do so would be a direct, unacceptable challenge to Israeli authority and would invite an image of weakness that is unaffordable) but they are also desperate to avoid more negative publicity in the run up to the UN meeting in September. My opinion is that the Palestinian UN state hood move is counter-productive. Although, it is sad that the Lieberman is the Israeli FM. He lives in a dream world and may also be corrupt.

5) The US relative silence on Syria has been pathetic. Assad is committing terrible abuses and Obama is staying quiet. Even from a purely US interest-centric viewpoint this is counter-productive. Iran and Hizballah will view American silence on Syria and impotence in Lebanon as examples of our weakness. We need to be more assertive.

6) I think this would be a much better deal than this.

7) The Red Sox continue their excellent run. 11/12 now.

Tom Rogan Thinks..

I have exams at the moment so will not be posting.

However, I do want to draw attention to the Red Sox.. who are kicking ass.

Tom Rogan Thinks..

England and the US both played under par yesterday. Especially the US. What a joke. At least England have Ashley Young.

Tom Rogan Thinks..

1) The prosecution of John Edwards will as the linked article points out, be very hard. It is a tough sell to make the case that he knowingly and intentionally used campaign funds to hide his divorce. His defense team will say (according to reports) that the money was a gift from a friend and was given in pursuit of protecting his divorce from his wife.

2) These should be in Afghanistan. Period.

3) The deficit debate rolls on.. Sadly I think that the only way Obama will decide to compromise is if his hand is forced by the economy.

4) Palin being Palin.

1) Yemen is on the verge of becoming a failed state. AQAP will be loving the current situation. Yemen's water problems are a major, major issue.

2) The House of Reps is right to be angry with Obama on Libya. He has ignored them, ignored the war powers resolution and ignored the need for the development and implementation of a clear, defined and effective mission plan. It is surprising that Obama who was supposedly going to be a more consensual and less executive focused leader has been so willing to ignore congress.

3) The US must put more pressure on the Maliki government to treat protesters with fairness and dignity.

4) Weiner better get some message control going..

5) The real problem in reconstruction efforts for Afghanistan is a lack of collaboration between different government agencies combined with a lack of oversight and planning.

6) Really can't see how this is any different to Obama's plan. Obviously Obama also knows that Israel cannot negotiate on the issue of its jewish statehood.

7) Once again.. on the Babar Ahmad trial the CPS brought a case to trial that had no merit.


8) Some good news. As I wrote in the guardian, we are lucky to have these citizens.

Tom Rogan Thinks..

1) General Dempsey will make a superb Chairman of the Joint Chiefs. He is bright, tough, grounded and has obvious attention to the costs that Iraq and Afghanistan have imposed (and continue to impose) on the Military and their families. Along with This article from seven years ago, it is clear to see why he was picked.

2) A very good article in the NyTimes concerning the above mentioned costs of war. As is this article from a couple of months back.

3) The FBI should transfer agents from its Counter-Terrorism Division into the Criminal Investigation Division. They can be assigned to supplement CT details on a reactive basis when the need arises. But the lesson of situations like this is that there are too many agents permanently assigned to 'terrorism' investigations. Of course, the political ramifications of such a change in approach are obvious. No one wants to transfer agents and then get blamed (likely unfairly) when terrorists do attack. But FBI agents are too valuable to waste on people like this guy.

4) The FIFA joke continues.

5) Barcelona's football yesterday was incredible. In my opinion this year's team is the best team in history.

1) Hillary Clinton was right to visit Pakistan. Whatever the problems in the US relationship with Pakistan, the US needs Pakistani support for a stable Afghanistan. While the ISI will continue to try and protect their own interests (marginalizing the influence of the US/getting US aid/hostile policy towards India), there are others in the Pakistani govt/military that have a more balanced outlook. It is true that they might not win out over anti-US elements, but it is also true that without US support the chances of their political defeat are substantially higher.

2) Now that Mladic has been captured we will have another opportunity to view the dysfunction of the Hague 'justice' system. His incarceration will be characterized by comparative luxury, his trial by extreme length and his punishment if (convicted) by terrible insufficiency.

3) The Senate was right to re-authorize the Patriot Act sunset provisions. I believe that there are sufficient safeguards in place to prevent abuse (important oversight is critical though). The capabilities that these provisions provide are also critical to national security. European investigative tools are far more intrusive and without similar safeguards. For example, the UK domestic Security Service - MI5, only requires the signature of the Home Secretary to authorize wiretaps. Political authority not judicial.

4) Could not agree more with Andrew Exum on Libya. Especially the PS note....

5) Instead of using Obama's speech as a reach out to Arab and Israeli moderates, we have allowed Hizballah to spin our reaction in their favor. Nasarallah is now openly supporting Assad as part of the righteous bulwark against the Israeli-US conspiracy. The hypocrisy of Hizballah's Assad support is stunning (supporting a dictator while painting themselves as revolutionary emancipators)  but its acceptance by Arab moderates is only possible through our own stupidity in playing into their traditional talking points. We should be embarrassed. Congress should read some books on the Middle East rather than reading polling data.

6) FIFA is in a state of meltdown. Sepp Blatter is an ass hole but it appears he may also be corrupt. Sadly their appears to be no one respectable available to replace him.

7) The Red Sox are on fire. A nice change from the early season.

8) The Champions League Final tomorrow should be a great game. Man Utd must follow the motto of the SAS.