Why Iraq is on the Precipice of Civil War

My first piece for The Atlantic - Why Iraq is on the Precipice of Civil War.

Muslims must confront violent Islamic Extremism

Around the world, the greatest enemy of Muslim citizens is Islamist extremism. Today, in Pakistan, Sunni Islamists detonated a bomb in a market that is popular with Shia Pakistani families. Many are dead. These civilians were brutally murdered because of their beliefs. Just over a month ago, over 100 civilians were killed in a similar attack. But it isn't just Afghanistan and Pakistan which are suffering. In Iraq for example, alongside frequent bombings, assassinations of senior civil servants and politicians have also become more common. The main perpetrator of these attacks is the Islamic State of Iraq, an heir to Al Qa'ida in Iraq, and a group which seeks to return the country back into the bloody clutches of sectarian civil war. A time of death characterized by the torture of children, hostages killed in fire pits, the use of electric drills as implements of torture and the morally foul disinterest of too many senior American politicians.

Recognizing this brutality is crucial. But it's also equally vital that Islamic societies face up to the evil which festers inside them. For far too long, warped terrorists have found quiet excuse for the atrocities which they commit. That has to change. While effective counter-terrorism partly requires the application of force, the construction of a new social tolerance is key. In essence, the growth of a political discourse that alleviates concerns regarding cross-sectarian participation in governing society (see growing protests in Iraq). During the period between 2003-2006 in Iraq, a significant violence enabler was the US strategic failure to separate intransigent ideological extremists from broader social discontentment. When the strategy changed, violence reduced dramatically. The lesson is this - until extremists are loudly discredited from all sides of a society (or ended), they find breaches in which to take root and foundations to manipulate the broader dissatisfaction of others.

Finally, we must also condemn bigotry in all its forms. Nonetheless, because of nuclear proliferation, Islamist sectarian currents pose an exceptional threat to international security. 

On a related note, here's a link page for my other terrorism related writings.

Hezbollah scared, Arabs annoying posh London, Bombing in Iraq, Israel West Bank operation, Chicago violence

1) Hizballah is freaking out because their buddy Assad is screwed. By allying themselves with his regime, Hizballah is suffering serious damage to their brand. IE - The group is suffering from a profound degradation of their carefully cultivated (albeit false) image as a cross-sectarian liberation force. Nasrallah understands that when Assad falls, Hizballah will not only have lost a key ally, by supporting his brutal crackdown, the group will be politically weakened in Lebanon and beyond. I expect that Hizballah will attempt to increase tensions with Israel in 2013, in an attempt to reconstruct their 'defender' image. Regardless, in the long term I believe that the organization will share Assad's fate. By using murder and intimidation as primary political tools and by supporting authoritarians who deny basic freedoms to their people, Hizballah will find it increasingly difficult to win legitimacy and corresponding popular support. True, Hizballah retains strong sympathy among poor Lebanese Shia, but in order to maintain its considerable power base the group must attract a wider base of interest.

2) Posh Londoners are upset because Arab playboys are driving super cars late at night. Although the noise might be annoying, I'm going to venture that these visitors make a rather positive contribution to the UK's economy. But I guess its a question of priorities - posh Londoners getting relaxing sleep, or poorer Londoners having jobs (in the clubs, bars, restaurants and stores that the playboys visit)... Ah the complexities of the British class system!

3) Around twenty people were killed in an explosion in Iraq today. The cause - a terrorist attack that was probably conducted by the Islamic State of Iraq. This organization is attempting to ignite sectarian war in the country. An ISI strategy that has elevated in momentum over the past year. As I argued back in July, the US must provide the Iraqi Government with the intelligence support that it may need in order to confront the terrorists. We must not allow extremists to erase the security successes that our military worked so hard to achieve in Iraq. Having said this, we also need to pressure PM Maliki to build cross-sectarian consensus in his country.

4) Chicago is suffering the impact of a terrible gang war. As in many American inner cities, the Democrats have failed Chicago. Conservatives can and should re-engage with these citizens to offer solutions.

5) Unless the Israelis were A) seriously concerned about leaks, or B) had imminent actionable intelligence, their raid on a West Bank apartment was a serious error. These kind of actions make President Abbas look weak and delegitimize his leadership in the eyes of Palestinian voters. The Israelis should be working to empower Abbas and isolate HAMAS, not vice versa.

Terrorist Attacks in Iraq

Today's terrorist attacks against the people of Iraq are a reminder that the fight for stability in that country is not over. The attacks also illustrate the degree to which the Islamist insurgency (who are responsible for these attacks) has always (at least in strategic terms) been divorced from the nationalist rooted insurgency (which sought the withdrawal of Coalition forces from Iraq). Much of the post-war violence in Iraq in the 2006- period onwards was due to the Islamist groups rather than Nationalist.

From my perspective, the current terrorist attacks are indicative of a resurgent Islamic State of Iraq (Sunni terrorist alliance). The group has a central two-fold focus- 1) To re-instigate a civil war between Iraqi Sunnis and Shia. 2) To use the ensuing chaos in order to form a Sunni caliphate in at least part of Iraq.

While Iraqi security forces have improved dramatically over the past few years, they still require extensive support in terms of logistics and intelligence. The United States must stand ready to provide this assistance where more is needed. We must also continue to pressure Iraqi Parliamentarians to find compromise with each other wherever possible. In addition, Prime Minister Maliki (Dawa) still retains far too much executive control over elite security units and too little interest in reconciliation with the Iraqiya block. The United States must work hard to address this problem.