Iran is claiming that it has sent a small flotilla on a patrol close to the US Atlantic border.
No need for alarm.
1) The Iranians lack the naval power to threaten the United States in any significant way. While Iranian forces in the Gulf could cause problems in the event of a localized conflagration, the ships in question here do not represent a serious challenge. In fact, the Iranians may be lying about the entire deployment.
2) The flotilla will be monitored by the US Navy. There's no doubt that the US will keep a close eye on what the Iranians do. It's in this sense that US Navy forces will protect American interests and gather intelligence on Iranian naval tactics, strategic doctrine and capabilities.
3) There's an obvious domestic political component to this action. Iran's Navy wants to exert prestige and regime hardliners want to show the US that they retain significant influence. Moreover, the imagery and narrative of Iranian vessels off the US coast is a powerful one. At least in propaganda terms. Correspondingly, Iranian state media are using these claims as an opportunity to assert Iran's presentation on the international scene. Power politics rely upon successful presentation.
4) The main point - states have the right to patrol in international waters. Indeed, the USS Harry S Truman Carrier Strike Group is currently on operations proximate to Iran. What's important is that naval powers behave responsibly. And not like China's Navy.
Shinzo Abe was wrong to visit the Yasukuni Shrine.
Why?
Because at a foreign policy level, Abe's pilgrimage will be regarded by Beijing as a one-fingered salute. Indeed, Abe almost certainly intended to send such a message. The Japanese Prime Minister might have had fun, but his action was ill-advised. For a start, it's crucial to remember that the Chinese are desperate to advance their regional power base and perceptions of that power. This unambiguous reality is evident in both the East China Sea and in Space. In this sense, by challenging China in such an emotionally evocative way, Abe is playing straight into the hands of the Politburo hardliners. In essence, he's granting them the political cover that they need in order to push a tougher line against Japan. With Sino-Japanese relations already poisonous, this injection of emotion is thus likely to further destabilize the region. China's Foreign Ministry has already hinted that China may respond - they've stated Japan will bear responsibility for the ''consequences'' that follow. Let's be clear, this wasn't the way to send a (necessary) signal of Japanese courage. This wasn't the way to let China know that Japan won't back down in face of growing Chinese aggression. Instead, calm resolution is the far better option - China must understand that Japan and the US will not equivocate; that while we favor good relations, if necessary, we'll use force to defend our interests.
Rather, this was a product of arrogance. The Japanese political elite remains largely unwilling to face up to the horrific crimes that Japanese military forces committed during WW II. By hiding from that reality, the Japanese Government has failed to understand how deeply those crimes are etched into the Chinese socio-political psyche. Their failure catalyzes the deeper problem - emotion plays a toxic influence in political strategy. It fosters mistrust in place of effective communication and it makes a miscalculation all the more likely. By playing games under the umbrella of American security, Abe has dishonored the United States. While that unyielding umbrella should (and will) of course remain in operation, Obama should also make clear his dissatisfaction over this profoundly unproductive act.
At present, the Nimitz and Truman CSGs are underway in the 5th Fleet area of operations (Arabian Sea/Persian Gulf locale). The Nimitz CSG has now been deployed for eight months (a standard deployment is 6/7 months). Taking into account the fact that the Reagan and Bush CSGs are also operating in the Atlantic (a relatively short sail to the 5th Fleet AO), I think it's pretty obvious that the Pentagon is working to stack substantial military assets in the region. It's certainly interesting that over half the US Navy's total carrier force is at sea.
From my perspective, it's almost certain that escalating tensions between Iran and Israel are the motivating cause for this deployment structure (the Obama Administration is keen to cool US-Iranian tensions so the deployments are unlikely to mean deliberate US gunboat diplomacy). While the US is hopeful that Wednesday's recommencement of the P5+1 negotiations will bear fruit, the Obama Administration is simultaneously aware that their influence over Netanyahu is inherently limited... that Israel may attack Iran at any time. It's also worth noting that in the context of the sequester, these fleet deployments represent a major drain on scarce Defense Department resources. No longer does the US flex our military power without carefully weighing corollary cost considerations. That fact alone gives credence to the notion that Obama is worried.
I have a few thoughts on yesterday's incident at the Washington Navy Yard.
1) Investigation
The first investigative priority for the FBI/partners is to ascertain why and how this attack occurred. Did Aaron Alexis act alone? What were his motivations? What degree of premeditation was involved? Why did Alexis travel from Texas to DC? Specifically, why did he attack the Navy Yard? How was Alexis able to do this and this and nevertheless also attain a security clearance? On this last point, precluding some special skill that necessitated his hiring, this warrant of trust was (even without hindsight) obviously undeserved.
2) 'Control' Arguments
In the context of today's release of Grand Theft Auto 5 and Alexis's apparent interest in violent video games, some commentators will probably call for tougher controls on video games (as I've argued before, this censorship argument is both constitutionally and logically absurd).
However, regarding the Navy Yard, the gun control argument deserves a deeper rebuttal.
Anti-gun activists like to claim that firearms should be left to trained officials - police officers etc. But if they're truly honest in that opinion, why won't they allow military personnel to be armed on facility?
Unfortunately, we're always going to have murderers like Alexis and morons like the firecracker thrower. This sad reality is not unique to America; evil bears no attention to borders. Yet, by explicitly ignoring the fact that highly restrictive gun laws in DC/the Navy Yard did nothing to prevent this attack, gun control activists are implicitly ignoring reality. Those of us who support the 2nd Amendment have logical, deeply felt reasons for doing so. We deserve more than the scornful disdain of casual authoritarians.
3) Motivations for Evil
This was a terrible tragedy. Yet, we have to be honest... it was also limited. Thanks to the skill of DC first responders, a relatively small number of people were killed.
Still, the public reaction to this outrage has been huge. We've seen an outpouring of grief across America; reflecting this truth, all the major news networks have relocated their senior anchors to the scene of the attack. They know Americans want answers.
This unified national sympathy represents the best of America - our concern for the innocent stranger. But it also hints at something else - an explanation as to why individuals like Alexis and terrorists like the Woolwich killers, or ISIS, do what they do. In short, because they realize that one atrocity can create waves of mass attention, evil individuals are emboldened to malevolent actions.
In turn, this is why our anguish must always be matched by abiding resolve. We must not buckle in face of terror.
4) Partisanship v Leadership
The President should be ashamed of himself. Yesterday was not time for partisanship. After their Syria debacle, you'd think that the White House communications team would proceed with caution.
5) Global Honor
Finally, just as we rightly pay homage to the men and women who wear America's uniform (and to the emergency services who risk their lives to save others), we must also remember that the cause of honor is a global one.
My other relevant writings can be found under the 'Other' heading of this link.
This is a great story. These men/women are all great pilots. Maintaining core naval aviation capabilities is critical to the national security of the US and the UK. Alongside the growth of the Chinese Navy, resurgent Russian forces and ongoing tensions in the Middle East, maintaining an elite power projection force will become increasingly important over the next decade. It is crucial to remember that these skills serve not only the US and the UK, but also innocent people in combat zones who rely upon the professionalism of these pilots.
Some of Ron Paul's specialist moron brigade at work again.
The people who made this ad are true morons. In their minds, because Huntsman is A) educated B) has adopted two girls in need, he is thus unworthy of the republican nomination. Insane. These Paul people probably think that we should just go around looking to find the dumbest ass hole in america and then anoint him/her as our candidate.
(I respect that Paul has some v. bright, well intentioned supporters. They need to speak up more though)
Counter-Terrorism operations are often lacking in the clinical effectiveness of today's reported operation against the Haqqani network and yesterday's operation against Awlaki. This is not down to failures on the part of Counter-Terrorism services, rather, the high degree of risk and luck that goes into any successful outcome. As this speaker shows.. He served on this operation.
