How the US must respond to the Westgate Mall attack

As I commented yesterday, it will concern the US Government that an attack on this scale occurred without prior intelligence warning. As Bergen and Sterman explain, in recent years, Al-Shabab has garnered significant support from elements of the Somali-American community. Due to this fact, the US Intelligence Community regards Al-Shabab as a high priority collection target.

             Yet, even amidst this intense Intelligence scrutiny, Westgate proves that Al-Shabab's operational security is sufficient enough for the group to successfully plot and conduct a major attack. This reality encourages two conclusions. First, that Al-Shabab is following Al Qa'ida's evolving preference for ''going off the grid'' in its plotting (avoiding electronic communications, compartmentalizing operational cells etc.). Second, that the US/allies need to do more to penetrate the group's power base in southern Somalia.

In another area, it's equally important that we recognize the recent developments in Al-Shabab's organizing character. In short, though its still hampered by factionalism, the group is now orientated under a leadership that holds a significant and growing interest in global Jihad. Lead by Ahmed Abdi Godane; a young, hyper aggressive leader, over the last few months, Al-Shabab forces have ruthlessly purged former commanders and others (like Hammami) who have dared to criticize or challenge their new kingpin. 

Godane's consolidation necessitates a US response.

In this vein, we should expect increasingly aggressive US counter-terrorism operations inside Somalia - likely via both manned strike aircraft and UCAV platforms and potentially also from US Special Forces stationed at Camp Lemmonier, Djibouti and/or on US Navy vessels stationed off the Somali coast.

Alongside new counter-terrorism operations in Somalia, we should also expect some government responses here in the United States. From my perspective, three particular actions are necessary.

1) As I noted yesterday, the US law enforcement community must ensure that Somalia orbit counter-terrorism efforts are well resourced. 

2) State and local government authorities must update their crisis plans. During the recent Navy Yard shooting, DC authorities and the media failed miserably in their responsibility to deliver accurate, coherent and timely public advisories. Because of these failings, had Alexis acted alongside other attackers focused against other targets, Washingtonians would have been placed in unnecessary jeopardy. Defeating Mumbai 2008/Westgate style attacks is complex enough. But by learning from past incidents, US metropolitan authorities will maximize their ability to save lives in the future.

3) Echoing point 2, on the specific tactical side, it's also crucial that local law enforcement agencies work with the FBI to refine their planning. As is the case in the UK, ongoing and multi-faceted preparation is a critical endeavor. Ego contests (like that between the FBI and NYPD) are fundamentally unhelpful.

          Ultimately however, we, the American people, must wake up. Yes, in the moment of attacks we're glued to news reports. However, once incidents have concluded, our attention often becomes absorbed by blame games. Take the Navy Yard/Capitol CERT controversy. Had that tactical team stayed at the Navy Yard, it's possible that they may have saved lives. Yet, as mentioned above, had Alexis operated as part of a broader cell that also held the Capitol as a target (the extent of threat was unknown at the time of the CERT recall), the decision to remain at the Navy Yard could have been catastrophic. 

My overarching point here is a basic one - counter-terrorism isn't simple. Protecting America requires our shared and astute attention.

Related Thoughts

 

Massacre at the Navy Yard - 5 Thoughts

I have a few thoughts on yesterday's incident at the Washington Navy Yard.

1) Investigation

The first investigative priority for the FBI/partners is to ascertain why and how this attack occurred. Did Aaron Alexis act alone? What were his motivations? What degree of premeditation was involved? Why did Alexis travel from Texas to DC? Specifically, why did he attack the Navy Yard? How was Alexis able to do this and this and nevertheless also attain a security clearance? On this last point, precluding some special skill that necessitated his hiring, this warrant of trust was (even without hindsight) obviously undeserved.

2) 'Control' Arguments

In the context of today's release of Grand Theft Auto 5 and Alexis's apparent interest in violent video games, some commentators will probably call for tougher controls on video games (as I've argued before, this censorship argument is both constitutionally and logically absurd). 

However, regarding the Navy Yard, the gun control argument deserves a deeper rebuttal. 

Anti-gun activists like to claim that firearms should be left to trained officials - police officers etc. But if they're truly honest in that opinion, why won't they allow military personnel to be armed on facility? 

Unfortunately, we're always going to have murderers like Alexis and morons like the firecracker thrower. This sad reality is not unique to America; evil bears no attention to borders. Yet, by explicitly ignoring the fact that highly restrictive gun laws in DC/the Navy Yard did nothing to prevent this attack, gun control activists are implicitly ignoring reality. Those of us who support the 2nd Amendment have logical, deeply felt reasons for doing so. We deserve more than the scornful disdain of casual authoritarians.

3) Motivations for Evil

This was a terrible tragedy. Yet, we have to be honest... it was also limited. Thanks to the skill of DC first responders, a relatively small number of people were killed. 

Still, the public reaction to this outrage has been huge. We've seen an outpouring of grief across America; reflecting this truth, all the major news networks have relocated their senior anchors to the scene of the attack. They know Americans want answers.

This unified national sympathy represents the best of America - our concern for the innocent stranger. But it also hints at something else - an explanation as to why individuals like Alexis and terrorists like the Woolwich killers, or ISIS, do what they do. In short, because they realize that one atrocity can create waves of mass attention, evil individuals are emboldened to malevolent actions. 

In turn, this is why our anguish must always be matched by abiding resolve. We must not buckle in face of terror.

4) Partisanship v Leadership

The President should be ashamed of himself. Yesterday was not time for partisanship. After their Syria debacle, you'd think that the White House communications team would proceed with caution.

5) Global Honor

Finally, just as we rightly pay homage to the men and women who wear America's uniform (and to the emergency services who risk their lives to save others), we must also remember that the cause of honor is a global one.

My other relevant writings can be found under the 'Other' heading of this link.