Syria, Debt Negotiations, Hezbollah, Russia, Piers Morgan

1) Syria

The defection by the head of Syria's Military Police to the rebels represents another step towards Assad's collapse. As I predicted a few weeks ago (I speak at - 10.32, 15.23, 22.25), defections will increase as momentum continues to root more firmly with the rebels.  While because of the sectarian make up of Assad's power base, certain elite units are unlikely to withdraw their support for the dictator, Assad's days are nonetheless numbered. He simply has insufficient financial, military and popular power to sustain against the rebel onslaught. The United States must exert increased pressure on Russia to end their support for his regime. We want to ensure that he departs Syria as quickly and bloodlessly as possible.

2) Debt Negotiations

President Obama's return to Washington is as much a political stunt as it is a gesture towards resolving the debt impasse. He should never have gone to Hawaii amidst such a serious financial crisis. Unless Obama is willing to offer Boehner serious entitlement reforms and unless Boehner offers Obama increased tax revenues, there will be no deal. Hopefully we can get some kind of short term deal to avoid the sequester cuts. With regards to defense, I have argued that these cuts would be catastrophic. A short term deal is far from ideal. However, perhaps the new Congress can act more seriously than its predecessor?

3) Hezbollah Christmas Message

Hezbollah's greeting to Christians illustrates the importance that the group places on the maintenance of a cross-sectarian support base. The organization seeks to maintain an image of a Shia liberator allied to the ambitions of ''the oppressed" across the Middle East - not just for Shia, but for all. The problem for Hezbollah is that by supporting Assad's continuing murder in Syria they have undercut this narrative. Ultimately, I still believe that Hezbollah will abandon Assad before the end. The truth is that Hezbollah is an extremist terrorist group dedicated to the assertion of an authoritarian and fundamentalist Shia theology. They might have a better PR strategy than Al Qa'ida, but their pretense of affinity for democracy is not real.

4) Russia

Putin's Russia offers the US no meaningful relationship. We must be much tougher on Putin. I will have an opinion piece on this issue in the coming days.

5) Piers Morgan

The deportation petition against Piers Morgan is stupid. He is lawfully present in the United States and he has the right to freedom of speech. True freedom of speech doesn't exist in the UK. We must ensure it continues to exist here.

War on the Young - Democrats and Republicans are punishing America's future

Whatever reforms they produce, the debt negotiations will fundamentally alter the future relationship between the federal government and younger Americans. In short, under-35 Americans will have to work substantially longer, pay more tax and will receive less benefits in retirement. In part this evolution is unavoidable - demographic and economic realities mean that major changes to the social-government contract are needed. However, young Americans should not have to repair our sinking national ship alone. The need for balanced sacrifice makes intellectual sense – it helps us find the minimum $4 trillion+ ten year trend savings we need, but it also it makes moral sense- our national psyche is embedded in a notion of shared sacrifice in pursuit of common national interests. Unfortunately at the moment at least, ‘shared balance’ is a phrase that neither Democrats nor Republicans have any interest in hearing.

The Democrats seemingly have little interest in serious entitlement reforms - they believe that the rich can somehow pay down the debt without necessary structural reforms to Medicare. As this video illustrates, a ludicrous presumption. On the flip side, Republicans only want to reform entitlements for those over 55. And while both parties argue that their positions are reflective of ‘fairness’, nothing could be further from the truth. Today’s Medicare beneficiaries will receive an average of three times the amount that they paid in. This reaches into the hundreds of thousands of dollars per person. And the money has to come from somewhere. Where better than from young Americans who lack the AARP style organization to mount a meaningful political resistance? 

Young Americans didn't build the national debt and we shouldn't have to bear the weight of its relief.

Compromise for Country: How I would resolve our debt crisis

UPDATE= FOR 2013 UPDATE - CLICK HERE.

 Photo Credit: CBS News

 

Iran and the Debt Negotiations

I am now in DC. Two stories are absorbing my interest at the moment.

1) Iran's attack on a US reconnaissance drone that was flying in international air space. 

 This incident doesn't surprise me. In fact, after the Beirut bombing a couple of weeks ago, I argued that in pursuit of weakening the international alliance opposing them, Iran, Hizballah and Syria were attempting to export violence and instability into regional political dynamics. Faced with crippling international sanctions in response to their nuclear program, Iran's economy is now in free fall. Inflation is exceptionally high, and Iran's oil export industry (the lifeblood of the economy) is struggling with unprecedented sanctions. Again, from my perspective Iran's latest action is unsurprising. I have consistently argued (see my guardian piece) that Iran responds to increasing sanction pressure with increasing aggression. The Iranians believe that Western fear of a war will lead to a collapse of the anti-Iranian alliance. Accepting this Iranian strategic understanding, the United States must respond carefully but robustly. While there should be no military response to this latest incident, the President should order USAF/USN fighter escorts for further drone flights over the next few weeks. If Iran attempts another attack, the President should order the US Military to take responsive defensive action.  

From a legal perspective, this attack was an act of war. However, it was one of many such acts that Iran has engaged against the US in recent years.

2) The looming debt negotiations. House Speaker, John Boehner, has signaled a willingness to re-engage serious debt negotiations with the President. This is a positive step. However, it will be important to see whether the president is serious about offering major reforms to Medicare (the core debt driver). The President must be honest and open in his dealings with Republicans. Sadly, this was not the case the last time debt negotiations took place.