The American Retreat

“I have therefore asked the leaders of Congress to postpone a vote to authorize the use of force while we pursue this diplomatic path.”

President Obama, September 10th 2013

George Washington once said that ''to be prepared for war, is one of the most effectual means of preserving peace.''

President Obama evidently believes otherwise.

Under this Commander in Chief, American foreign policy is adrift. The currents of others now control our course. The mafia regime of President Putin has become the arbiter of a corrupted international justice.

Children die while the world spins.

Watching his speech last night, it was clear that President Obama regards his strategy as the modern partner to Teddy Roosevelt's diplomatic mantra- ''Speak softly, and carry a big stick.''

Sadly however, if the stick is made of Jell-O, the metaphorical carrot is also rotten. 

Obama's diplomacy is negotiation without an anchor and the threat of force without a threat. It isn't real, it's just delusional. In fact, it's absurd.

Now, in a looming conference in Geneva, we await the 21st century successor to Munich. A hopeless endeavor in pursuit of an impossible cause. A pretense of peace in service of brutality.

I say pretense, because the cause of peace is only rational when it's real. Devoid of rationality; without the prospect of beneficial realization, peace is injustice cloaked in false morality. Towards Assad, it's a rhetorical abstraction purchased with suffocating children.

Yes, the President might have been passionate in arguing why our intervention is important - how, as he put it, ''Our ideals and principles, as well as our national security, are at stake in Syria.'' But as much as this sounds credible in America, our domestic perception is ultimately irrelevant. In the end, what matters is what our adversaries think. And what our friends think. 

They think we're weak. No longer can America be trusted.

This is a strategic disaster of epic proportions - a collapse of resolve and influence not seen since Saigon. A superpower humbled, uncertain and fearful. Global adversaries emboldened and unconstrained. A peace process full of holes. This is the change Obama has wrought. Its bitter taste will linger for a long, long time.

Twelve years ago today, facing our own Ghouta, President Bush framed the horror with an enduring call to American purpose.

''None of us will ever forget this day,'' he said, ''yet we go forward to defend freedom and all that is good and just in our world.''

Today, twelve years on, the retreat has sounded.

Syria WMD deal? The ultimate political Ponzi scheme

The prospective WMD deal with Assad is the ultimate political hustle. On paper, everybody wins!

President Obama gets to pretend that he hasn't backed down. The President will claim that his decision to go to Congress precipitated these 'fortunate' developments. He'll argue that by moving away from the use of force, the US is serving a just peace (nothing could be further from the truth).

Putin gets to ingratiate himself with an already supplicant and now personally grateful American President (Putin has released Obama from his self-imprisonment in the authorization abyss). At the same time, Putin consolidates Assad's position. In short, he's lost nothing whilst gaining a huge political and strategic bounty. It's genius.

Assad gets to escape the military consequences that should have followed his gassing  of innocent civilians. The dictator's only sacrifice? Agreeing to a vague, unenforceable inspections regime... at a future point. Again, it's a stunning pivot.

Iran's victory is obvious. Quite simply, they've called America's cards and found us bluffing. Paying heed to Iranian security strategy, over the long term, this deal will (if it goes forward) propagate a security nightmare.

If President Obama agrees to this absurdity, he won't simply be kicking the deterrence can down the road... he'll be kicking it straight off a cliff. Right into the hands of the world's most dangerous actors. It could hardly be worse. At least if Congress had turned him down, the President could have claimed a pretense of democratic authority for his inaction. However, if he signs up to this deal, the Commander in Chief will have allowed America's enemies to score an explicit victory over the United States. At a basic level, think about the message that this deal will send to Iran, North Korea etc... 'Use WMDs and win a peace deal.' From a US security viewpoint, we're embracing strategic insanity.

Related thoughts.

Why this G8 Meeting is a Joke

The G8 is currently meeting at Camp David. However, in assessing the diverging dynamics at play for each of the big five, I believe this G8 meeting will be a total joke.

This is my judgement of each leader's participation -

OBAMA - Obama's sole concern is re-election. He wants Merkel to continue to bail out the eurozone. However, he will not offer anything that jeopardizes his domestic position electorally.

MERKEL - Merkel is left in a terrible position. The Greeks want to stay in the EU but also want the EU to bankroll them into the future. No one wants to support the Germans in bailing out a country that has no intention of paying off its debts. Merkel is alone.

CAMERON - Cameron wants fiscal discipline to take precedence. While no one wants to give the British Government credit for the comparatively low cost of British borrowing (Cameron's fiscal reforms have ensured the UK is seen as a reliable borrower), only Merkel agrees with Cameron's 'austerity' approach. Obama certainly doesn't.

HOLLANDE - I can't work out whether Hollande is A) Stupid B) Crazy or C) Combination of both. France has a 85% debt-GDP ration. Instead of proposing cost cutting reforms and inducements for economic growth, Hollande intends to reduce the pension age, return to the thirty five hour work week and institute a 75% top rate of tax.

PUTIN (MEDVEDEV) - Putin simply doesn't give a damn. So he sent Medvedev, who is irrelevant. I find it sad but also truly hilarious that Obama consistently ingratiates himself with the Russians. They are playing us Americans for fools.

Strikes

Today most of the UK government sector is on strike. They are reluctant to accept pension changes that (in my opinion) are reasonable and necessary for a sustainable fiscal track into the future. The exchanges in Parliament exemplify the skill of both Cameron and Miliband in debate.