Debate 3# - Analysis

I believe that Mitt Romney won last night's debate.

 I make this assessment on the basis of what each candidate had set out to achieve before the debate began and the manner by which Romney successfully pursued his particular objectives. For Romney, the objectives were clear. 1) Increase his likeability numbers with the American people. 2) Increase the comfort level that American voters have with him re-foreign policy (can he take the 3AM call etc.) but also re-domestic policy 3) Provide a final attack on the President's record over the past four years. 

         On each of these counts, Romney succeeded. Where the President appeared angry and at times highly condescending, Romney appeared composed and at times even complementary. On the big issues - China, Iran, Russia and terrorism, Romney came across as assured of what he would do as President. Romney ended the debate on an especially strong note, issuing a stinging rebuke of the President's first term and then following that rebuke by delivering a warm, confident closing appeal to American voters.

I felt that the President came across as far too angry and condescending. He made some especially idiotic remarks with reference to the US Military. For example when he responded to Romney's Navy ship numbers comment by saying that the US also doesn't use 'horses' and that 'we have these ships that go underwater, nuclear submarines'. Obama obviously forgot about the use of horses as an instrumental tool for our Special Forces during the opening stages of operations in Afghanistan. I also thought the President was out of line when he said that he was happy Romney viewed Al Qa'ida as a threat. These were silly statements.

Ultimately, I believe that the opinion polls will continue to trend in Romney's favor. The former Governor showed that he has a grasp of the issues, a clear foreign policy agenda and a comfortable demeanor that will enable him to be an effective President. Once again, he asserted a positive contrast to the angry, record redundant President. The tightening polls show that voters are crying out for a change that they can believe in. 

Mitt Romney has showed and is showing that he represents that change.

PS- For a more in depth look at my reasons for supporting Romney's foreign policy, check out my latest op/ed for The Daily Caller

Latest Polling Data Analysis

My internet now appears to be fixed.

The latest polling data is a mixed bag. However, I think the trends remain firmly in Romney's favor (even if the President remains the overall slight favorite). 

I have a number of observations.

1) The second Presidential debate does not seem to have stopped Romney's ascent in the polls. I think that there is a critical reason for this. While Obama may be seen as the slight winner of the debate, Romney has been able to establish a firm position as the better candidate on the deficit, debt and unemployment/the economy. Crucially also, as I predicted, Romney's likability ratings are now level or greater than the President's. Put simply, winning a debate is not the same as winning the debate.

2) Romney must secure either Wisconsin or Ohio in order to win the election. Using this site you can see the prospective effect of variable state wins on the larger electoral college. Using this site you can see the polling data for each state (hovering over a state will show you the latest polling data, while clicking on a state will show you trend polling). Taken together, the two websites paint a very interesting polling picture. Having seen other polling data in addition to these two websites, I believe that Romney now holds increasingly firm leads in Florida, North Carolina and Colorado. I also believe that Romney has slight but statistically significant leads in Virginia and New Hampshire. However, the President remains ahead in Wisconsin, Iowa and Ohio (albeit by 2 point margins). Because of the electoral college points available, Romney must win either Ohio or Wisconsin. So expect his campaign to allocate a huge amount of final resources to those states in the coming days.

3) The final debate on Monday night will be crucial. Voter interest in this year's debates has been unusually high, so both candidates still have a major opportunity to persuade the last undecided voters to come into their corners. Romney needs to slightly adapt his second debate game plan for the final debate. First, he needs to be more aggressive with the President. When the President starts misrepresenting him, Romney needs to say 'Mr. President, these kind of deliberate untruths are unbecoming of your office.' Second, Romney needs to focus his argument on 'jobs, deficit and debt' - the key issues at stake. Obama has 0 record on these issues and is extremely weak in his available defenses. Third, as the final debate is focused on foreign policy, Romney must point out the Administration's continuing absurdity on Benghazi as an indication of their larger foreign policy confusion. The Obama Administration tried to misrepresent the attack as a mob incident, so as to avoid the negative domestic political fallout of successful terrorist attack on their watch. The President neglected his intelligence briefings in the run up to, as well as (and extraordinarily) in the aftermath of the attack. I have previously written more in depth about why I believe Obama's foreign policy is weak.