Election Observations in Florida

I am currently in South West Florida. I will be returning to the UK this weekend. While in the sunshine state I have been attempting to get a feel for ground level voter leanings concerning this year's Presidential election. There is clearly a close split between likely voters. However, I have been able to make a number of conclusions. 

1) Republicans are far more energized than Democrats. The Republicans that I have met are almost unanimous in their profound dislike for the President's policies. Contrary to press spin, the majority of this opposition is focussed on a fundamental distaste for the President's economic approach and not on his personality (although he is not popular in this regard). The energy that this opposition holds in terms of prospective support for Republican candidates (at the national and state levels) is considerable. In contrast to Republican leaning voters, many Democrats are less energetic in their contrasting support for the President. They feel that his economic record is weak and they regard him as having failed to live up to expectations. Not surprising when the President promised biblical level change.

2) Romney-Ryan need to do a better job of explaining their Medicare reforms. A good deal of older voters are concerned that these reforms will deny them medical care. This is largely the result of Democratic ad campaigns that unapologetically lie about the Romney/Ryan position on this issue (The Democratic Party has no plan so just relies on lies). To counter Democratic attacks, the Republican ticket simply needs to repeatedly say this. 

3) Far too few voters are attentive to Afghanistan as an issue. Iran has come up in a few of my conversations, but it disappoints me that most Americans seem to have forgotten about the fight our military (along with our coalition allies) are currently involved in. Supporting our troops means more than waving a flag and a yellow ribbon, it requires an attention to our military operations.

4) By Democrats and Republicans alike, the President is seen as offering few new proposals. In this sense, support for the President by moderate Democrats and independents is largely rooted in their discomfort with the more extreme portions of Republican Party policy. I firmly believe that Romney-Ryan have little interest in issues like gay marriage, abortion and pornography (and will largely ignore GOP religious fundamentalists). However, negative perceptions of the GOP on these issues are undoubtedly damaging the party's ability to reach out to new voters. I always come back to this polling data. Around 40% of Americans are conservative, 35% moderate and only 21% liberal. On these results, the GOP should be landsliding every election. Unfortunately, candidates like Santorum drive many voters away. I am confident that over time as the next generation of Republican leaders begin to run for office, we will be able to attract more of these voters. My generation cares very little for intervention in the private lives of our fellow citizens.

Trayvon Martin and 'Stand Your Ground'

The death of Trayvon Martin in Sanford, Florida, raises concerns about the conduct of the shooter. However, in my opinion the 'Stand your Ground' (SYG) law is not to blame. If George Zimmerman approached Mr. Martin and then engaged in a fight with him, the law will clearly preference the position that Mr. Martin was the innocent party - the SYG law doesn't change this. I think the issue here is that the relevant phone call did not come out until the aftermath of the incident. In the aftermath of that evidence, the Justice Department have opened their own investigation and that is appropriate. The key point here is that members of a neighborhood watch are supposed to 'stand and report'. In the absence of compelling evidence of imminent/actual criminal activity, they are not supposed to challenge members of the public on the street.   The SYG law was designed to rid Florida of the idiotic 'responsibility to retreat' rule and empower the natural right of self-defense. It was not designed to make everyone a sheriff's deputy. If Mr. Zimmerman breached Mr. Martin's rights, Mr. Zimmerman is looking at a very serious jail term.

While living in Florida in 2010 I worked on a nightclub security team. While doing this job I felt that I had the power to protect myself with the backing of the law. I would not feel the same way in the UK. Perception of an ability (or inability) to defend oneself is an exceptionally important part of individual freedom.

Romney Wins Florida. What's Next?

Romney's victory in Florida (by about 15% over Gingrich) is significant. In the end, Romney's focused, aggressive and issue based campaign attracted undecided voters and undercut Gingrich's base of support. The pressure on Gingrich to withdraw from the race will now grow significantly. While he has stated that he intends to continue forwards to super tuesday (early march), the importance of the fact that his Florida performance was so disappointing cannot be understated. As anyone who has ever lived in Florida knows, Florida Republicans are conservative. Gingrich's campaign narrative would therefore have expected success in the state (or at least a much closer outcome). 


The size of Romney's victory should give Gingrich a cause for pause.

Vote for Romney

Today, Republican voters (who have not voted early) in Florida are going to the polls to pick their choice of Republican nominee for the Presidency. They should pick Mitt Romney.