Why Egypt Needs Democracy

The post-Morsi violence in Egypt continues unabated. From my perspective, Egypt's current difficulties are the result of two competing objectives - competition between democracy (as a voting form) and constitutionalism (as a sustaining mechanism for protecting individual/minority rights). Since Mubarak's fall from power, the Egyptian Army has sought to protect the later element while tolerating the former. Under Morsi, the Army believed that the Muslim Brotherhood was negatively reshaping the foundations of Egyptian society in intolerable ways. Yet, this being said, I also believe the Army recognizes that democracy is the only mechanism capable of calming Egypt's deep social fractures. Only democracy can empower the various actors that define Egypt's socio-political landscape. The lesson of history is clear. From Northern Ireland to Lebanon, democracy has proven its worth in providing an imperfect but significant stabilizing social force. Ultimately, the Army sees itself as a guardian of constitutionalism - the guarantor of a cross-sectarian society in which one political faction cannot assume supreme power. Sustaining this belief, I believe the Egyptian Army has 3 great fears - unrestrained social instability, the emergence of a Sunni political opposite to Iran and the loss of their own power. In this sense, taking the Army's worries alongside the varied political ambitions of the Egyptian people, only democratic constitutionalism can temper the Army's fears whilst also balancing Egyptian society in a somewhat peaceful and ongoing dynamic of political competition.

Why Egypt's Army Issued a Deadline

The Egyptian Army has issued a deadline to President Morsi. Either he commences serious negotiations with the protesters who oppose him, or in 48 hours, the Army will take ''certain measures'' to ensure Egypt's stability. This is major news - the Army's decision to intervene in this political crisis exerts serious pressure on Morsi's Government (potentially existential pressure). There are a number of reasons why I believe the Army has decided to take such aggressive action.

First, the Army recognizes that it remains the most trusted institution in Egyptian political life. Allowing the protests to grow in scale and anger would risk a societal collapse. The Army knows that retaining their privileged social position necessarily requires engagement with the protesters- their popular power is too significant to ignore. The Egyptian Army is an astute political actor - its leadership are fully cognizant of the fact that institutions derive their power from the consent of the people. That's why they abandoned Mubarak when they did and in large part, that's why they're taking this action now.

Second, the Army believes that up until this point, they've granted Morsi wide latitude in terms of governing flexibility. This factor is important- it informs the Army's confidence in issuing Morsi with an ultimatum. It's obvious that the Army believes Morsi has severely jeopardized their acquiescence to his rule. In this sense, the Army believes that their deadline is justified in the interests of the Egyptian people. Up until now, the Army has been anxious to avoid perceptions of being a malevolent anti-democratic force. From their perspective, they've tolerated a lot already. Now they've had enough.

Third, (and this is the major point), the Army has never trusted the Muslim Brotherhood. The Army is deeply uncomfortable with political Islamism (at least in the form that the Brotherhood adopts). As a result, with Morsi's behavior growing increasingly controversial, these protests have provided the Army with an authorizing cover of legitimacy to re-balance power away from the MB. The Army has always wanted two major things from Morsi - civil stability and the retention of the Army's privileged power. From their perspective, he has now failed on both counts. He's fired senior Army officers and now, as the Army themselves put it, ''the national security of the state is in severe danger''.