GOP prospects in Midterms, Putin bored with Snowden, Peace in Burma and Colombia, Fmr. President HW Bush, Neptune's new Moon

1) Respected pollsters Nate Silver and Harry Enten are predicting that the GOP has an increasingly strong chance of re-capturing Congress in the 2014 midterms. However, there are risks here for the GOP. As the pollsters note, if the GOP picks odd candidates (as occurred in 2012), prospective electoral victories may implode. At the same time, even the very prospect of a GOP takeover carries problems. As more intransigent Republicans realize that victory is possible, their arrogance will likely grow. Believing that power shortly awaits, they'll increasingly oppose bi-partisan compromise. I'll be writing on this issue for The Week.
 

2) Putin is getting bored of Snowden. Though I dislike the Russian leader, in this particular case, I understand his pain. Snowden is an insufferable ego-maniac (I think he sees himself as a modern day Jesus- suffering the persecution of the powerful in order to bring salvation to the masses). I find Putin's discomfort interesting. I suspect that Snowden is refusing to play ball with the Russian intelligence services. As a result, his presence in Moscow is little more than a political liability for the Kremlin. From their perspective, he offers nothing but an angry American Government. Snowden will probably end up in Venezuela - another bastion of effective government. 

3) Burma has promised to release all political prisoners by the end of the year. Similarly, in Colombia, the FARC rebel force is finally bending to a peace process. From both states, this is very welcome news. The evolution of Burma from a brutal military regime into a graduated process of democratization is proceeding successfully. The rulers of this country have realized that detachment from the international community is a path to ruin. Comparatively, for FARC, the relentless pressure of the Colombian Government (primarily under former President Uribe) has been too much to bear. In short, they've been brought to their knees and then to the table. As outlined in Robert Kaplan's excellent book, Imperial Grunts, the United States (and especially the Bush Administration) deserves joined credit for this outcome.

4) The capture of Miguel Morales is a major milestone for the Mexican Government. The Zetas cartel are a particularly brutal organization. Hopefully this success will spur President Nieto to continue the work of his predecessor in confronting Mexican narco-terrorists. These gangsters are not resistance fighters or simple criminals, they're individuals who have no qualms about setting fire to casinos and in kidnapping, torturing and killing bus loads of civilians. They cannot be allowed to intimidate Mexico into submission.

5) Fmr. President George HW Bush was recognized at the White House yesterday. This decent man deserves the praise he received. He's a great American.

6) NASA just found out that Neptune has another Moon. It's tiny, but this latest news just provides yet more evidence to the case that I made last week - Space deserves our attention.

 

Secret Service - Colombia Incident

Twelve US Secret Service agents who were in Colombia for President Obama's visit to that country have been sent back to the US on possible misconduct charges. The agents involved were reportedly members of the  advance team - which would mean that they are assigned to the elite Presidential Protective Division (PPD), the agency arm responsible for the protection of the first family. 

A few points..

1) This incident is embarrassing for the Secret Service and for the country. To have twelve members of an elite law enforcement agency linked to prostitution does not look good (even if it is legal in some parts Colombia). That the incident happened abroad at a major international summit and understandably infuriated the Colombian authorities is also less than ideal. The Secret Service needs the trust and respect of foreign governments in order to operate effectively. Clearly, incidents like this one do not assist that dynamic.

2) This is not unprecedented. In 2002, a similar but more serious incident occurred. However, agents assigned to protection details work in high stress environments that require long hours away from home, a lot of travelling and extremely high professional standards. Though not excusable, this is the context in which agents 'letting off steam' sometimes go too far.

3) The Secret Service is still without question the finest protection force in the world. Agents are trained extensively and are expected to do whatever it takes to succeed in their mission. It is a testament to the Service that so many protectees from Bush and Clinton to the Obamas enjoy speaking of the trust that they have for their agents. Crucially also, the Secret Service is fundamentally non-political; focused absolutely on protecting America's democratic ideals rather than allowing itself to be injected the partisanship of American politics. 

So.. while it is right that Americans should react to today's news with disappointment, we also owe the Secret Service our gratitude and respect. Without them, American democracy would be left vulnerable to the mercy of the violent.

AP - Herald Sun