Boston Investigation - Day 2

 The investigation in Boston continues.

1) My observations from yesterday concerning the potential of a fragmentation-IED employment appear to have been correct. As has been widely reported, it seems the explosive was packed inside a pressure cooker and surrounded by nails + other shrapnel. Clearly, this attack sought to combine a simplistic method of engagement (a relatively easy to construct bomb) with a comparatively significant impact (a large number of casualties). On the second point, as I noted yesterday, the low number of fatalities is a great credit to Boston's EMS and surgical teams.

2) In terms of the perpetrator/s/group responsible, we still know very little. It's true that the pressure cooker explosive tactic has been a traditional go-to approach for Al Qa'ida, however, the ease of that construction methodology means that we cannot be confident Al Qa'ida (/affiliate/inspired) were responsible. Regardless, I suspect that at this point (approaching 48 hours post-incident), the FBI and Police will soon have a camera shot of whoever placed the devices. Unfortunately, the individual/s in question may have concealed their identity. Regardless, by the lack of newly leaked information, it's evident that the authorities have significant gaps in their knowledge. Because of the number of investigators assigned to this case, once new information does arrive, it will likely enter the public domain very quickly (contrary to common belief, the US Govt. finds it very difficult to keep necessary secrets).

3) The ricin letter sent to US Sen. Wicker (R-MS) may or may not be related to the Boston bombings. It's impossible to know at this point. It may simply be a lone wolf who wants to create a sense of panic. This being said, a connection cannot be ruled out. It is worth noting (if only for background) that Al Qa'ida have previously shown a serious interest in ricin weaponization.

 

4) Whoever is responsible for the bombings and the letter (either together or individually), it seems highly likely that the number of individuals involved is very low. To successfully elude the US intelligence community requires a great deal of operational secrecy, ease of access to the US and independence (why in recent years the US/UK IC have been especially concerned by British-Pakistani extremists using their UK passports to gain access to the US). 

At this time, the primary concern on the part of the US Govt. is twofold - to investigate the attacks and to quickly find those responsible. A real threat will exist until the responsible party is detained (a concern evidenced by the significant increased security measures in major US metropolitan areas). But be under no illusions, they will be found. The FBI is the finest investigation force in the world.

Boston bombing - Investigation Day 1

Having just watched this morning's FBI-Boston press conference, it seems apparent that the Govt. does not yet know which individual or group were responsible for yesterday's Marathon attack. But we do know a little more than yesterday.

1) The primary injuries sustained - lower limb injuries, suggests that the explosive did indeed have some form of fragmentation weaponization. When a fragmentation bomb is used, those in the immediate proximity of the weapon suffer both explosive injury and fragment-impact injuries. Using these types of weapon, the attacker's intention and outcome are the same - causing terrible injuries to a large number of people (in this case evidenced by the 17 who are still critical). It's a testament to the skill of Boston's first responders and surgical teams that so many were saved. In other locales, many of those injured would likely have died.

2) The FBI has confirmed that only two explosive devices were used and that no others were found. This fact is important, as it makes more plausible the notion that a single individual or very small cell carried out the attack. A basic truth of terrorism is that the smaller a network, the more likely the network will be able to go undetected by authorities. Again - this is just an observation. Nothing more.

3) As in London post the July 7th 2005 bombings, the US law enforcement/intelligence community will be working overtime to try and ensure that the immediate threat has now ended.

4) Once again, it's important to reiterate that at the moment, we know very little. But there are two conclusions we can make.

First, we should be thankful that this attack didn't take more lives. It easily could have done so.

Second, the indiscriminate murder of civilians (including an 8 year old boy) and the intention to kill many more, has once again given clarity the moral abhorrence of terrorism. Regardless of the motivations of the actors responsible, terrorism is not a legitimate political strategy; it's murder. Brutal, unjustified and requiring of our unequivocal condemnation. We should seek to understand terrorists only to the degree that our understanding enables their persuaded or enforced compliance to an emergent condition of just, democratic peace.