Ukraine nuclear

Why Russia is highly unlikely to launch a nuclear strike against Ukraine. It would risk Putin's hold on power and an escalation spiral with NATO. 

Charlie Wilson part deux

Ukraine is calling and it wants Charlie Wilson's war back. President Biden should issue a finding to allow the CIA to support an insurgency against Russian occupation forces.

Sovcombank, Sanctions

Fearing sanctions over Ukraine, Sovcombank hires U.S. lobbyists to whitewash its profile. The bank's true nature is a little different.

Biden and the Western allies wobble on sanctions. While some responses to Putin's aggression have been announced, others remain uncertain.

War

 Russia declares war on Ukraine. What now? The invasion has begun. It is massive in scale and ambition.

China Initiative dies, U.S. reinforces Estonia, China-Russia partnership

Ending the China initiative, the Biden administration sacrifices U.S. security at the woke altar. The Chinese Communist Party is playing the U.S. government against the interests of the people.

Biden starts slow with U.S. sanctions but rightly reinforces Estonia. The NATO member ally is most vulnerable to invasion.

China and Russia align against the world. The two most powerful autocracies seek to dismantle the post-Second World War liberal international order.

Russia-Kyiv, China demographics, Ukraine NATO?

How and why Russia is massing forces north of Kyiv. The Russians appear to be planning a rapid encirclement of the Ukranian capital.

China's demographic problem. Too few Chinese are having kids and the government has few means to address the issue. This crisis greatly undermines Xi Jinping's global ambitions.

Why Ukraine isn't joining NATO any time soon. The 30 current NATO members are very far from unanimous in support of Ukraine's candidacy and Russia's occupation of Crimea/Donbas looms large.

Britain and Russian money, China influence campaigns

 My guest essay for New Lines magazine: 

Britain's Russian money problem. The UK continues to prioritize access to Russian finance at the expense of security and political risks.

The veil comes off China's covert influence campaign. Beijing uses money, sex and ideology to undermine the democratic structures of other nations.

Biden's speech, Olaf Scholz in Moscow, Russian de-escalation?, Chinese fishing fleets

Biden delivers a strong speech on NATO, Ukraine, and American values. The president deserves credit for his address on Tuesday.

Olaf Scholz betrays Ukraine and the West. The German Chancellor is now calling for a treaty to limit Ukraine's sovereignty.

Cyberattacks, stock values, and Moldova: or how Russia is not de-escalating. Ukraine continues to face a serious and imminent threat of invasion. Putin simply appears to be centering the initiative back in his favor.

China's fishing fleets are destroying the world's oceans. Acting without regard for other humans or marine wildlife, they are destroying ecosystems and undermining sustainability.

Russia, Germany

No, Russia hasn't blinked, and why a Wednesday invasion of Ukraine is unlikely. Putin is trying to create space for the Russian markets to breathe. He's unlikely to attack according to Western schedules.

Why did the 82nd Airborne avoid German airspace? The latest influx of U.S. troops took longer - and cost more fuel - than needed. We deserve to know why.

Putin invasion indicators, Biden's doctrine

Putin has not yet ordered an invasion, but new indications suggest it is imminent. The movement of Russian forces towards Ukraine's immediate borders is of particular concern.

Biden's apparent 'leave Americans behind' doctrine. What on Earth is the president doing in pledging to Putin that he won't do anything to rescue Americans in Ukraine.